Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#281 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:24 pm

Turning NW Jamaica.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#282 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:25 pm

Much further north than 12z, but note that this is only possible if this really gets going as fast as GFS currently shows. And I have my doubts with this being a hurricane before even reaching the islands.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#283 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:27 pm

This is going to be close. Ridge is starting to build
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#284 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:28 pm

What is the buzz with this wave? geez. I don't think it becomes much.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#285 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:30 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:What is the buzz with this wave? geez. I don't think it becomes much.


Not sure if you are joking but both Euro and GFS both onboard with development within the next 120 hours. Most members of the EPS and GEFS develop it and pro mets on twitter are talking about how favorable the environment is.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#286 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:32 pm

18z GFS, MH Cuba landfall:

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#287 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:32 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:What is the buzz with this wave? geez. I don't think it becomes much.

It has support from all members, ProMets are bullish on it, environment after Fiona departs is extremely favorable, possible CONUS threat.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#288 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:33 pm

Might get trapped again. Yikes
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#289 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:35 pm

Major hurricane heading into the gulf is not good...
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#290 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:36 pm

Is that you Gustav ?
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#291 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:44 pm

My guess is that this ends up a bit further west than the current GFS and Euro show, maybe an NGOM or WGOM threat. Maybe a FL panhandle threat. If we were one month later in October I would say peninsula Florida. We will see, looks like this one does bear watching and could have its sight set on the GOM.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#292 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:46 pm

Door closed for SFL this run, the rest of the Gulf tho…yeah not good.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#293 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:47 pm

It’s in la la range now. End result take with a grain of salt. But yikes signal is hefty.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#294 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:48 pm

18z GFS landfalls in the US (FL panhandle), 940 mb.

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#295 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:52 pm

It is notable that both the Euro and GFS have a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week and are in reasonably close agreement even this far out. :eek:
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#296 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:54 pm

We’re will it be next?

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#297 Postby sweetpea » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:It is notable that both the Euro and GFS have a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week and are in reasonably close agreement even this far out. :eek:


Scary!!! Not liking the latest GFS, ends up right over my head. Plenty of time to watch.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#298 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:04 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:What is the buzz with this wave? geez. I don't think it becomes much.

When was the last time you saw a Euro run end with 953mb in the Gulf?


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#299 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:05 pm

18z GFS vs 12z EURO at 240hrs, this is about the strongest model agreement I've seen between the GFS and Euro at this range...

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#300 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:08 pm

Gfs will nail just about every community in the gulf coast during the next 10 days. Maybe the next run cuts through Cuba and out to sea.
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