Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[caneman]

Am I missing something? Don't see much on radar or satellite. Seems a long wayyy to development so for now low end to mid t.s. seems about right. Of course, if and when It develops there is rocket fuel awaiting.

[wxman57]

Not much time. Comp day today cancelled, weekend cancelled. First advisory on W. Caribbean disturbance issued shortly. TS 55 kts inland north of Tampa Tuesday evening. Most squalls/wind on east side.

[Ianswfl]

He had no option but the Tweet about it, it would had been nice if he would had given props to the EC

https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1695026534623433062

What I'm wondering too.

You think it's possible we have another Earl 1998? We think it's going to he a sloppy cat1 but instead gets stronger than forecasted and end up with a cat2 like 100mph before landfall instead of 80 and catches everyone by surprise?

This ain't going to be a charley but I can see a surprise cat2 out of this.

[cycloneye]

What the heck is the Half's model?

Anyway, whatever comes of this there won't be much waiting. Everyone on the Gulf Coast should have all their supplies by now BUT IF YOU DON'T .... in FLorida, the second tax holiday for storm products starts tomorrow!

https://floridarevenue.com/DisasterPrep/Documents/2023/DPposter11X17.pdf

Here are the details of the new HAFS A and B that was launched on June 27.

https://wpo.noaa.gov/the-hurricane-anal ... stem-hafs/

[SFLcane]

What the heck is the Half's model?

Anyway, whatever comes of this there won't be much waiting. Everyone on the Gulf Coast should have all their supplies by now BUT IF YOU DON'T .... in FLorida, the second tax holiday for storm products starts tomorrow!

https://floridarevenue.com/DisasterPrep/Documents/2023/DPposter11X17.pdf

You’re slipping my friend… These are models run my HRD and are pretty good and was of the first to show Ian’s intensity last year.

https://wpo.noaa.gov/the-hurricane-anal ... stem-hafs/

[NDG]

Very important where the vortex develops and how much interaction it has with the Yucatan P. before it gets lift north on Monday, and the heading it takes over the warm 30-31C waters of the GOM. A more northerly heading it will have more time over the GOM to strengthen, a more easterly heading less time before tracking over FL.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba,
and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Nuno]

Half’s models are into the Naples area 991mb.

https://i.postimg.cc/TYRFJmzt/IMG-7501.gif

Definitely an outlier and not as probable, but what are the conditions leading to such a drastic southern track in this model run?

[jlauderdal]

Not much time. Comp day today cancelled, weekend cancelled. First advisory on W. Caribbean disturbance issued shortly. TS 55 kts inland north of Tampa Tuesday evening. Most squalls/wind on east side.

Labor day will be a work day too. Sorry about your comp day being canceled. 55kts seems reasonable as does the track, good work as usual.

[SFLcane]

Been a while since I have seen a 30-70 with no invest only in 2023. Lol

[jlauderdal]

Been a while since I have seen a 30-70 with no invest only in 2023. Lol

It's bizarre but they want to see something in the development process and its really not there yet, they are treating it as more than invest to be sure, just haven't designated yet, ensembles will be interesting today

[NDG]

For those who doubted the disturbance crossover from the EPAC into the NW Caribbean.

[BobHarlem]

The remote for the invest maker machine's battery died and they forgot to go out to get more last week. I'd imagine by the afternoon one will be up.

But really, it may be a bit difficult to isolate a center at the moment.

[Frank P]

In the IR loops above looks like the overall broad general circulation is moving toward the NW to NNW.

[CronkPSU]

it is bizarre that they pop up invests for random clouds in the middle of the atlantic with lower %'s and days and days away from any land impact and won't post an invest for a 30/70 for a disturbance that will definitely impact in someway somewhere in the US within 5 days....

[fllawyer]

If NHC truly thought a low-end hurricane was in the realm of possibility, or even a strong TS, would they use more aggressive language in the TWOs? All I have seen is that a TD is likely to form, and couldn’t remember if they’d done that kind of signaling in the past.

[SFLcane]

The remote for the invest maker machine's battery died and they forgot to go out to get more last week. I'd imagine by the afternoon one will be up.

But really, it may be a bit difficult to isolate a center at the moment.

https://i.imgur.com/ggYKGQP.gif

Yup I mean there’s really no well defined center there for no invest models just guessing right now. Still not convinced this develop at all.

[NDG]

06z Euro through 90 hrs, almost identical to its earlier 0z run.

[NDG]

I think that once they pull the trigger of an Invest, they will place its best track position very close to they YP coast near MX/Belize border.

[TallyTracker]

If NHC truly thought a low-end hurricane was in the realm of possibility, or even a strong TS, would they use more aggressive language in the TWOs? All I have seen is that a TD is likely to form, and couldn’t remember if they’d done that kind of signaling in the past.

They have to be cautious before sounding that alarm. The disturbance is still very new and the models don’t have a great handle of the future intensity. A TD being likely is very prudent at this point as is telling the Western Carib. and Florida to keep an eye on it. Anything more at this point is speculation. I imagine if the trends continue, the NHC TWO language will get more aggressive. PTC advisories will likely start tomorrow. FL watches and warnings won’t be needed until late tomorrow or early Sunday most likely.