Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Weathertracker96]

The same conditions that are causing the MDR to be suppressed looks to also be the reason Florida and the Gulf are in increasing danger of a major hurricane in a week or so

Can you expand on this and explain what players this affects that might make this a Fl & Gulf possible threat?

You can private message me if it’s easier

[beachnut]

That Euro track is giving me Ian memories.

We don't like Ian memories!

PS. We used to live in Dunedin back in the 80's

[Ivanhater]

The same conditions that are causing the MDR to be suppressed looks to also be the reason Florida and the Gulf are in increasing danger of a major hurricane in a week or so

Can you expand on this and explain what players this affects that might make this a Fl & Gulf possible threat?

You can private message me if it’s easier

I mentioned this a few days ago when the Ensembles were split. The ones that developed before the Caribbean were showing a clear escape well east of the US. The ones showing a delayed development until the Western Caribbean are showing a dangerous setup for Florida and the Gulf.

The delayed development is becoming increasingly likely which is not good for the US

[BobHarlem]

only 105 hours so far, but the 18z gfs has the vorticity back, a bit stronger than the 6z and a bit further south. (12z had nada)

[Weathertracker96]

The same conditions that are causing the MDR to be suppressed looks to also be the reason Florida and the Gulf are in increasing danger of a major hurricane in a week or so

Can you expand on this and explain what players this affects that might make this a Fl & Gulf possible threat?

You can private message me if it’s easier

I mentioned this a few days ago when the Ensembles were split. The ones that developed before the Caribbean were showing a clear escape well east of the US. The ones showing a delayed development until the Western Caribbean are showing a dangerous setup for Florida and the Gulf.

The delayed development is becoming increasingly likely which is not good for the US

Thanks for answering. Yes, it’s looking like delayed development may be the solution for now. That is a dangerous one too because we all know how storms can over perform in Caribbean/ gulf

[LAF92]

18z GFS back to some development thru 160 hours it’s showing a strengthening TW heading into the Caribbean

[toad strangler]

18z GFS ramping up in the western Caribbean @234 heading into the GOM

[Keldeo1997]

This run looks like its going to be Classic Happy hour GFS

[LAF92]

18z GFS ramping up in the western Caribbean @234 heading into the GOM

Shooting the gap not going to be a pretty run for the gulf coast

[BobHarlem]

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like it's about to hit the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast per the latest GFS operational.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like it's about to hit the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast per the latest GFS operational.

Yes looks like MS/AL border this run.

[Ivanhater]

Ouch



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[Teban54]

While it's very unlikely to verify exactly like this, 18z GFS is basically Ida 2.0 except for US landfall location. Genesis and early evolution are strikingly similar.

Delayed development, which 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing, is not your friend...

(Why development is delayed on 18z compared to 0z and 6z is another matter, and it feels weird to me as 18z has the vorticity just as organized as the earlier developing runs entering the Caribbean. Is it shear, land interaction, influences of GFS's South American vorticity, or something else?)

[blp]

Kudos to the ICON and CMC for sniffing this out early. If I am not mistaken they too did well with Beryl. They may not be the best for track but they are certainly serving their purpose for cyclogenesis at this moment.

[Category5Kaiju]

Kudos to the ICON and CMC for sniffing this out early. If I am not mistaken they too did well with Beryl. They may not be the best for track but they are certainly serving their purpose for cyclogenesis at this moment.

Euro ensembles too. The Euro ensembles have been pretty unwavering with this system forming while the GEFS ensembles greatly (and falsely) saw their support for the system diminish at one point.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

18z Euro came in stronger:

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that have become a
little more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then forecast to continue moving westward to
west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nimbus]

Up to 50% and the GFS is tracking through the Yucatan channel.
Its getting harder and harder to imagine a good outcome without a hostile TUTT in the forecast to provide shear.

[Hammy]

Kudos to the ICON and CMC for sniffing this out early. If I am not mistaken they too did well with Beryl. They may not be the best for track but they are certainly serving their purpose for cyclogenesis at this moment.

Hasn't the ICON been sniffing out storm after storm over the last few weeks that didn't develop though?