INVEST 96L

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131430Z AUG 05//
WTNT90 KNGU 131501
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 43.9W TO 14.2N
47.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 1009MB LOW NEAR 13N 44W IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THIS SYSTEM EXHIBITING INCREASED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, CONVECTION, AND WINDS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE LATEST STREAMLINE AND SCATTEROMETRY PRODUCTS SHOW A
CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 13.1N5 43.0W7 WITH WINDS 18 TO 33 KNOTS.
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM
SATELLITE DATA IS 85F(29C). SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141501Z AUG 05.//





This is a prelude from classification to TD status.

[yoda]

So a TD at 5 then Luis?

[cycloneye]

So a TD at 5 then Luis?

If trend of organization continues first advisorie will be yes at 5 PM.

[sma10]

So a TD at 5 then Luis?

If trend of organization continues first advisorie will be yes at 5 PM.

I'm sure we will find out shortly after 2:00 when the tropical models are released.

[Sanibel]

Good organization.


Lesson from Irene should be to discount Bermuda High as steering feature.

[WeatherEmperor]

very true. I think the NHC will be in no rush with 96L but I do really believe that 5pm today will be very very likely to have TD10 on our hands. It is interesting to note that every single TD that has formed this year, has gone on to become a named storm.

<RICKY>

[perk]

Cyclone thanks for posting that info. At least we know 96L won't recurve through the next 72 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

Is anybody else having problems with this computer model website? Try it with 96L and it will show the plots but not the graphics. Am I the only one here or do you guys have it too?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS and GFS based tracks are GARBAGE and should not be used at all. The GFS <b>DOES NOT HAVE THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE MODEL</b>

This is most likely to turn northward before reaching 50W, and almost certainly before reaching 55W

[bvigal]

The graphic is from South Florida Water Management District, whose site appears to be down.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

[micktooth]

I am having trouble with the sites as well.

[Sanibel]

CV has formed regular storms before August 15th. Conditions are not supporting them...

[ts_kakolina]

Is anybody else having problems with this computer model website? Try it with 96L and it will show the plots but not the graphics. Am I the only one here or do you guys have it too?

<RICKY>

To see the models graphics try this:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

[cycloneye]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

This is the best site for model tracks.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks guys. Appreciate the help!

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

1008 MB ATLANTIC LOW IS NEAR 13.5N44.5W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW HAS GOTTEN MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BANDS OF
CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE CENTER AND CONVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ITS
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWED BY THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH... WHICH IS
DIGGING IN ITS PATH FROM 20N46W TO 14N52W. THIS TROUGH SHOULD
CAUSE A SLY WIND FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE LOW AND INCREASE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE CENTER WITH ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR 14N42W.

[Deenac813]

very true. I think the NHC will be in no rush with 96L but I do really believe that 5pm today will be very very likely to have TD10 on our hands. It is interesting to note that every single TD that has formed this year, has gone on to become a named storm.

<RICKY>

You know I did not even notice that but you are right. 9 TD and 9 storms! Wow.

[WeatherEmperor]

very true. I think the NHC will be in no rush with 96L but I do really believe that 5pm today will be very very likely to have TD10 on our hands. It is interesting to note that every single TD that has formed this year, has gone on to become a named storm.

<RICKY>

You know I did not even notice that but you are right. 9 TD and 9 storms! Wow.

THe only thing is can we sustain tat for the remainder of the season? Tough question.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 43.7 320./ 7.0
6 13.6 45.0 272./11.8
12 13.2 45.8 247./ 9.4
18 13.4 46.5 286./ 6.4
24 13.9 47.0 316./ 6.8
30 14.6 47.4 329./ 8.0
36 15.1 47.9 320./ 7.5
42 15.7 48.5 313./ 8.4
48 16.3 49.2 306./ 9.1
54 17.0 50.3 306./12.3
60 17.1 51.9 271./15.7
66 18.0 52.5 326./10.9
72 18.6 53.8 294./13.6
78 19.2 54.8 301./11.1
84 19.2 56.1 274./12.3
90 19.4 57.2 277./10.7
96 19.8 58.1 296./ 8.6
102 20.3 59.0 301./10.5
108 20.6 59.8 291./ 7.7
114 21.5 60.5 320./11.7
120 22.4 61.2 320./10.7
126 23.1 62.0 315./ 9.6


12z GFDL

[Steve H.]

Yes to the last question, no it will not go north and never cross 55W, it will most certainly cross 55W and will probably threaten the NE Antilles. Those models taking it north like that are hosed.