TD 10...Back Again

superfly · #281 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:02 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:My friend if this was in the Gulf of Mexico they would be calling this a tropical storm. There is a well defined LLC with bursting convection. Of course it is going to pulse when you still have shear over it. I wonder how hot Joe b is over it?

This is not a TS, not even close.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #282 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:08 pm

Look at the Satellite? What do you see a well defined LLC with bursting convection right over it. They down graded it because was not strong enough at that time to be a tropical cyclone. I think that it is again back tot he point. This is my option. In yes I know what a cyclone looks like. I like to think on my own.

:wink:

BensonTCwatcher · #283 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:09 pm

The Hebert boxes are FL boxes. I take considerable note of TC's which pass within 100 miles or so of 20/60. ( not that I don't watch all the TC's in the basin :roll:

) NC (eastern) sticks out into the ATL eastward and thus "catches" a lot of developed storms that are typically steered by the SW portion of the mid-atlantic ridge. Not trying to say where this system is headed that far out. There are a LOT of variables this time of year. But as we get past this holdover from July in the pattern, this system could well be trouble from the islands up to VA. climo seems to favor that outcome vs any west turn into the GOM.

superfly · #284 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:16 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at the Satellite? What do you see a well defined LLC with bursting convection right over it. They down graded it because was not strong enough at that time to be a tropical cyclone. I think that it is again back tot he point. This is my option. In yes I know what a cyclone looks like. I like to think on my own.

You need more than a LLC to be classified as even a TD, never mind a TS at this point. If this was in the Gulf, it would probably be classified as a TD just for precaution, but there is no way in hell this is a TS right now.

sma10 · #285 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I like to think on my own.

Yes, you do.

#286 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:17 pm

superfly wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at the Satellite? What do you see a well defined LLC with bursting convection right over it. They down graded it because was not strong enough at that time to be a tropical cyclone. I think that it is again back tot he point. This is my option. In yes I know what a cyclone looks like. I like to think on my own.

You need more than a LLC to be classified as even a TD, never mind a TS at this point. If this was in the Gulf, it would probably be classified as a TD just for precaution, but there is no way in hell this is a TS right now.

well dont forget what Irene used to look very similar a week ago. For a long time it had a low level circulation that was exposed with the convection being sheered away but it was still a TD. But hey I have all the confidence in the NHC and I know they will make the call when they need to.

<RICKY>

Scorpion · #287 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:19 pm

Looks better than when Irene was a TD. Its also on a west heading, potentially bound for the FL peninsula, whether its gonna be a wave or a Cat 5 remains to be seen.....

sma10 · #288 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:20 pm

Scorpion wrote:Looks better than when Irene was a TD. Its also on a west heading, potentially bound for the FL peninsula, whether its gonna be a wave or a Cat 5 remains to be seen.....

Yep, that just about covers it.

#289 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:Looks better than when Irene was a TD. Its also on a west heading, potentially bound for the FL peninsula, whether its gonna be a wave or a Cat 5 remains to be seen.....

you've got to be kidding me. lol

<RICKY>

Scorpion · #290 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:21 pm

Whether it consolidates into a TD soon will determine if this will be a rain event or disaster of epic proportions(leaning toward rain maker).

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #291 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
superfly wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at the Satellite? What do you see a well defined LLC with bursting convection right over it. They down graded it because was not strong enough at that time to be a tropical cyclone. I think that it is again back tot he point. This is my option. In yes I know what a cyclone looks like. I like to think on my own.

You need more than a LLC to be classified as even a TD, never mind a TS at this point. If this was in the Gulf, it would probably be classified as a TD just for precaution, but there is no way in hell this is a TS right now.

well dont forget what Irene used to look very similar a week ago. For a long time it had a low level circulation that was exposed with the convection being sheered away but it was still a TD. But hey I have all the confidence in the NHC and I know they will make the call when they need to.

<RICKY>

I understand that but the this looks better then Irene was for 4 days. In almost as good as she was when they upgraded her to a tropical storm. I understand the nhc doe's a very good job. But the line is large between a distrabance then a depression I can see. Much larger then I would of ever thought.

But the nhc is doing there jobs. So I should stay out of it.

sma10 · #292 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:23 pm

Scorpion wrote:Whether it consolidates into a TD soon will determine if this will be a rain event or disaster of epic proportions(leaning toward rain maker).

That was a good one Scorpion!

gkrangers · #293 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:23 pm

Matt, heres some imagery of Tropical Storms. Give it a rest on ex TD10...its not a tropical storm.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... g10vis.jpg

http://epod.usra.edu/archive/images/tscla10j3.gif

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/earth/pic ... 020910.jpg

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 080501.gif

#294 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:25 pm

Oh I know matt-hurricanewatcher. I would not be surprised once this thing gets over more favorable conditions for this thing to explode into something dangerous.

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #295 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:25 pm

Every one but the top one was 55 knots or above tropical storms.

superfly · #296 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Every one but the top one was 55 knots or above tropical storms.

I think we can all agree that Irene was a very poorly organized TS when it was classified, but it still looked a hell of a lot better than what ex-TD10 looks like now. There is no way ex-TD10 is a TS, barely a TD if even that.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene21.gif

cinlfla · #297 Postby **cinlfla** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:47 pm

Can anybody tell me what the shear environment is like around ex td 10.

johngaltfla · #298 Postby **johngaltfla** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:50 pm

cinlfla wrote:Can anybody tell me what the shear environment is like around ex td 10.

High now, fading within 24-36 hours. If it holds together, it will have a chance to redevelop.

floridahurricaneguy · #299 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:50 pm

So you all think it will redevelop? Deffinitely looks like it could be bound for Florida. Hope its not any thing like the Andrew scenario.

Matt

#300 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:52 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:So you all think it will redevelop? Deffinitely looks like it could be bound for Florida. Hope its not any thing like the Andrew scenario.

Matt

lol oh boy another Andrew comparison.

<RICKY>

TD 10...Back Again

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