TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

looking at satellite - this thing could become a monster. I sure hope something breaks her up!

[Brent]

Can you please tell me if I'm right that you are forecasting the track for the next seven days, and the intensity for 4 and a half days?

We're not forecasting... we're posting model runs to show possible scenarios. It's Late Saturday Night and we're bored.

[fasterdisaster]

Can you please tell me if I'm right that you are forecasting the track for the next seven days, and the intensity for 4 and a half days?

We're not forecasting... we're posting model runs to show possible scenarios. It's Late Saturday Night and we're bored.

I know about you, I was asking Floridahurricaneguy who posted his amateur forecast.

[Ivanhater]

anyone have a link to get the latest gfdl model as it comes out?

[floridahurricaneguy]

Can you please tell me if I'm right that you are forecasting the track for the next seven days, and the intensity for 4 and a half days?

We're not forecasting... we're posting model runs to show possible scenarios. It's Late Saturday Night and we're bored.

I know about you, I was asking Floridahurricaneguy who posted his amateur forecast.

Yea intensity for next 4.5 days and 7 days for path. But really anything after 5 is very uncertain but I do feel thats a good general path it may follow. I am worried that Tampas luck is running out.

MAtt

[hicksta]

The safest place to be is at the center 5-7 days out

[f5]

2005 Hurricane season in a nutshell
The Assault on Urban Populations

Katrina-New Orleans
Rita-Houston/Galveston
Wilma-Tampa Bay?

[canetracker]

[fasterdisaster]

Winds are now 35 mph!!!

[artist]

ok - can anyone figure out the goof here and what they really mean???


http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[fasterdisaster]

19L 24?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wilma Wilma Wilma Wilma Wahooo!!!

[artist]

yep - seems they have another area they are watching - when I click on the plot they have there it shows 14.5n/34w yet it is labeled 19l 24! lol
must be too early in the morning for them!

[floridahurricaneguy]

i dont like where GFDL and UKmet are. I got a sick feeling in my stomach. Those models are in to much agreement this early. Looks right into gulf. I think this time next week Tampa will be getting lashed. I hate to say it. I am in MS now. Will be going home tuesday to probably batten down the hatches and take my grandparents out of there the end of the week.

Matt:(

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

After this season some serious quastion will need to be asked.
1# Don't build at sea level or below.
2# Not smart to build in a area below 5 to 10 feet.
3# Get out before the storm hits...Theres not going to be many people staying.
4# For Major citys repeat 1# in 2#....

We must think about the above. If not more damage will happen with more death...If you build your house on a volcano expect it to be burned down....

Its ok to disagree. But just think about it...

Also 24 seems to have developed a pretty good central core. It might be close to becoming Wilma.

[Recurve]

Totally unoffical comments on possible scenarios -- just throwing this out there.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Going on climatology and broad patterns, folks from Appalachicola to Marco Island should be watching TD 24 closely. The Keys are also in the cone of uncertainty but crossing Cuba would limit (re)strengthening to major hurricane status before landfall in Key West if it were to track due north.

NHS is forecasting Cat 2 status before the system crosses into the eastern Gulf, but some models do not develop the system as strongly and ridging in the Gulf could block northward movement until later in the period. Current steering current appear to want to move this WSW into the Yucatan.

[wxmann_91]

After this season some serious quastion will need to be asked.
1# Don't build at sea level or below.
2# Not smart to build in a area below 5 to 10 feet.
3# Get out before the storm hits...Theres not going to be many people staying.
4# For Major citys repeat 1# in 2#....

We must think about the above. If not more damage will happen with more death...If you build your house on a volcano expect it to be burned down....

Its ok to disagree. But just think about it...

Also 24 seems to have developed a pretty good central core. It might be close to becoming Wilma.

Not trying to offend you...but a few hours ago you said that TD 24 was struggling to become a depression and in fact had degenerated into a tropical low.

Anyway, about the first part...I agree. Large cities I suggest should not be built along the coast, unless they build all buildings to withstand the surge and winds of a Cat 5 (like here in Cali, where building codes for quakes are very strict). Also the population along the coast can continue growing at the rate it is now, otherwise evacuating would be more dangerous than staying.

I'm sorry I strayed so OT, no please continue the current discussion. Everything looks good (in this case meaning bad), rapid intensification still seems likely once the inner core region consolidates, would not be surprised to see a major by Wednesday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was joking around a little earlier. Also pointing out if it did not form a central core. It would have a hard time developing. I also expect this thing to strengthing to Wilma.

[f5]

i pray this isn't Tampa Bay's Katrina we don't need another 100+billion dollar Catastrophie.Also Punta Gorda is trying to recover from Charley so anywhere along the west coast of Flordia is bad news.

[Normandy]

2005 Hurricane season in a nutshell
The Assault on Urban Populations

Katrina-New Orleans
Rita-Houston/Galveston
Wilma-Tampa Bay?

Rita didnt assault Houston and Galveston. And Katrina assaulted the MS coast moreso than it did NO (but yeah u can use NO for that).