Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#281 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:09 pm

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051204 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051204 0000 051204 1200 051205 0000 051205 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 42.3W 34.7N 39.1W 35.5N 36.1W 36.3N 33.9W
BAMM 34.3N 42.3W 34.2N 39.9W 34.2N 37.3W 33.9N 35.4W
A98E 34.3N 42.3W 34.3N 39.7W 35.1N 37.0W 35.2N 34.8W
LBAR 34.3N 42.3W 34.8N 39.4W 35.1N 36.7W 35.1N 34.1W
SHIP 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS
DSHP 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051206 0000 051207 0000 051208 0000 051209 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.6N 32.3W 33.6N 32.8W 30.2N 37.9W 24.1N 43.2W
BAMM 33.1N 34.3W 30.2N 36.9W 27.1N 43.5W 23.7N 50.0W
A98E 34.8N 33.4W 32.9N 31.9W 32.0N 32.9W 27.1N 35.8W
LBAR 34.4N 31.5W 33.3N 27.1W 30.9N 25.6W 29.3N 27.3W
SHIP 38KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 42.3W DIRCUR = 95DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

00:00z Models decrease the wind to 65kts.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#282 Postby WindRunner » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:18 pm

Just because the convection got eaten away at. I think they should have at least held it steady, but that's their decision. Then again, they don't necessarily follow the models for the next advisory.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#283 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:26 pm

BECOMING A LITTLE BIT LESS ORGANIZED!

HOURS AGO:

Image

NOW:

Image

ALSO MOVING MORE SE-WARD!
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#284 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:28 pm

There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#285 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced


Derek maybe they are following the SSD sat estimate of 4.0/4.5.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:
Contact JamesFromMaine2

#286 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:36 pm

Theres more deeper convection developing around the center

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TheEuropean
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1797
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
Location: Voerde, Germany
Contact:
Contact TheEuropean

#287 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:41 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:Theres more deeper convection developing around the center


Right, so may be it could get stronger again.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:
Contact JamesFromMaine2

#288 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:45 pm

is the eye starting to get smaller like it would on a strengthing Hurricane?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TheEuropean
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1797
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
Location: Voerde, Germany
Contact:
Contact TheEuropean

#289 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:51 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:is the eye starting to get smaller like it would on a strengthing Hurricane?


Not really, it's just a little smaller than yesterday and earlier today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#290 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced


They updated the older image, the top one. But it showed the system less organized on its SE side. It could have been temporary but the NHC is expecting weakening at any time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#291 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:57 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:
Contact JamesFromMaine2

#292 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:01 pm

1:45Z image is out and theres now the deeper convection all the way around the eye

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fuzzyblow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:38 pm
Location: Montreal
Contact:
Contact fuzzyblow

#293 Postby fuzzyblow » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:23 pm

It's good anough to export on March or somewhere,,, I'm very proud of this storm. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#294 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:25 pm

they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:
Contact JamesFromMaine2

#295 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:28 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast


well they have been forcasting weakening for the past few days! lol but instead its been staying or strengthing instead of weakening! lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fuzzyblow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:38 pm
Location: Montreal
Contact:
Contact fuzzyblow

#296 Postby fuzzyblow » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast

ys but everybody want Epsilon survive = influence, Epsilon is on influence. It's touching me :cry:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#297 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:59 pm

This storm looks like it wants that second chance of life by looping around into warmer waters. But can it survive before it get down there?? I say yes..Its in 50degree water and its supposedd to go into warmer.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Dr. Jonah Rainwater
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:45 pm
Location: Frisco, Texas
Contact:
Contact Dr. Jonah Rainwater

#298 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:02 pm

At some point that cold front moving off the East Coast is going to have to catch up with Epsilon. Shear and outflow patterns might be lax enough to allow a Cat1 Epsilon, but I highly doubt we'll ever get stronger than this.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#299 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:08 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:This storm looks like it wants that second chance of life by looping around into warmer waters. But can it survive before it get down there?? I say yes..Its in 50degree water and its supposedd to go into warmer.
where are these 50* waters at??? Epsilon is in 70* waters as we speak, errr... type...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#300 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:11 pm

EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE
IT LIKELY WILL BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN
COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE
MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


I don't get what they are trying to say. In the first sentence says that Epsilon may or may not be a hurricane by now but it will surely be one by Sunday?!?!?!?!? Then, they finish the sentence saying it's entering colder water temps and drier air. The second sentence indicates weakening.

What I don't get is the wording of the first part of the first sentence.

I'm going crazy or Forecaster Knabb is too tired of this season?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 365 guests