SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[P.K.]

For norhtern hurricanes the stronger part is usually the NE. So, for a southern cyclone the stronger part is the SE?

The eyewall went over Innisfail but how are we to know if the strongest part went over though? Spatial measurements on the BoM website are rather far apart, especialy when you compare it to all the readings you get for North Atlantic storms from recon. Given the movement here would the SW quad not have been the strongest?

[JonathanBelles]

coul dit redevelop off the west coast of austrailia or possibly even combine with TC Floyd

[P.K.]

There is a good 2000km between the remnants of Larry and TC Floyd so no.

[HURAKAN]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/speci ... visir.html

A loop of Larry's entire life. A really cool loop presented by CIMSS.

[Jim Cantore]

My god, thats some extreme stuff

I dont know how surge prone that area that is but that looks like wind damage so I'd think that would be caused by winds at 150-175mph

Imagine of a storm that strong to hit NOLA, Houston, Miami, Savanah, or Tampa

[artist]

looks as though those roofs weren't strapped down.

[Jim Cantore]

I've heard about a billion in damage and no reported deaths, I also read on wiki, "Unknown strength cyclone"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

130 to 135 mph with 150 mph gust I would guest.

[Jim Cantore]

Wind damage like that I'll say 135-145 sustained with gusts to 165

[Jim Cantore]

I'm looking at the satelitte loop, it looks like an ERC might have begun as it was making landfall, just a guess

[AussieMark]

Cyclone Larry was one of the most intense – and least expected – weather events in Australian history. At first it was simply a low pressure system, but conditions coalesced and it intensified almost overnight into a category five cyclone.

“There was a favourable environment with a ridge to the south that helped keep it on a westerly trajectory,” says Ben Matson, meteorologist and founder of independent weather company SwellNet. “The surface temperature in the Coral Sea was also good and there was nothing to slow it down. It was a very special weather event.”

Although this is peak cyclone season, often a pressure ridge along the Queensland coast creates windshear in the upper atmosphere. This acts to slice the low pressure system in half and the embryonic cyclone is dead before it gets underway.

With Larry, the ridge wasn’t there, and there was nothing to slow it down. The pressure dropped to 915 hecto-pascals and peak wind gusts hit 215kmh. In layman’s terms, it was a very low-pressure system with very high winds.

But it wasn’t just the local conditions. The broader atmospheric signs were also favourable for Larry’s formation, and point to more heavy-duty cyclones before the season closes at the end of April. Larry was the offspring of a phenomenon called Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global, eastward-moving pattern of upper and lower air circulation that operates over a 30- to 60-day cycle.

“It enhances convection in the region and helps spawn tropical lows,” says Matson. The oscillation was in the ideal part of its cycle to help kickstart the convection needed to sustain a cyclone.

Cyclones need a sea surface temperature of at least 27.5°C to get going. Hot air rises, taking moisture with it. A low-pressure system and relatively light winds aloft help its formation, and the Earth’s rotation adds the spin. As long as the energy keeps pouring in, the cyclone keeps going. Fortunately, as soon as it crosses land – as Larry did on Monday – the heat source dries up and the cyclone withers into a tropical depression.

We’re in the middle of the season, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is favourable and the ocean is warm, so more cyclones are inevitable, but another of Larry’s intensity is hard to forecast. The perfect storm requires perfect conditions.

[P.K.]

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/

That 108kt sustained wind is not included, so it must have been removed.

Maximum Reported Wind Gusts
Low Isles 41 knots / 76 km/h at 9:00am 20 March 2006
Green Island 59 knots / 109 km/h at 7:04am 20 March 2006
Cairns Airport 53 knots / 98 km/h at 7:42am 20 March 2006
Mareeba 55 knots / 102 km/h at 9:00am 20 March 2006
South Johnstone 98 knots / 181 km/h at 6:33am and 6:38am 20 March 2006
Lucinda 54 knots / 100 km/h at 4:00am 20 March 2006

Maximum Sustained Winds
Low Isles 37 knots / 68 km/h at 9:00am 20 March 2006
Green Island 46 knots / 85 km/h at 7:04am 20 March 2006
Cairns Airport 29 knots / 54 km/h at 7:42am
Mareeba 40 knots / 74 km/h at 9:00am 20 March 2006
South Johnstone 48 knots / 89 km/h at 6:50am 20 March 2006
Flinders Reef 79 knots / 146 km/h at 8:00pm and 9:00pm 19 March 2006
Cardwell 47 knots / 87 km/h at 6:00am and 9:00am 20 March 2006
Lucinda 44 knots / 81 km/h at 4:00am 20 March 2006

The estimated minimum central pressure has also been increased to near 940hPa.

[Weatherfreak14]

Those pics are amazintg. Hope the guy isnt't planning to cook.

[HurricaneBill]

So Larry got downgraded from a Category 5 to a 4?

[P.K.]

Looks like it, I've e-mailed them to ask about the Innisfail reading.

[Squeako da Magnifico]

They showed a documentary of Larry tonight. They said they are still assessing the damage. Because due to limited funding of the Bureau. They just don't know how fast the winds were or what pressure. It was only an approximation first off. But they say that Larry was a Strong Catergory 4.

[HurricaneBill]

Well, I'll admit Larry was at the threshold. So it could go either way.

But regardless, I think Larry's already made his mark.

[NONAME]

his gust were 180mph

[P.K.]

Turns out the Innisfail reading was purely an estimate using the Beaufort scale. It should be included in the report in some form at some point though.