Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[KFDM Meteorologist]

20.00 a month, i think

[mempho]

Bump for thoughts on Chris

[Steve]

I didn't see a Cat 2 or 3 entering the Gulf today. Did I miss something? Actually this post is not an attempt in any way to bash Joe B, but is sponsored by a little hype, sensationalism and jumping the gun.



Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

I didn't see a Cat 2 or 3 entering the Gulf today. Did I miss something? Actually this post is not an attempt in any way to bash Joe B, but is sponsored by a little hype, sensationalism and jumping the gun.



Steve

yeah, JB admits that Chris was a huge bust of his. However, keep in mind that most everyone else was also expecting Chris to become a Hurricane too (inluding the NHC).

[Steve]

Yeah. I hear ya. I don't pile on JB and was a subscriber through 2004 until the Accuweather-Santorum debacle. I read this thread fairly often to see what he's thinking and putting out for consumption. I think Joe's problem is that he's such a weather enthusiast that it sometimes clouds his reasoning. And the weather freak in him probably causes him to push the envelope sometimes. But it's all good.

Steve

[MGC]

Pay 20 bucks a month for Joe? Why do that when you can get expert opinion here at S2K for free!....MGC

[cycloneye]

Pay 20 bucks a month for Joe? Why do that when you can get expert opinion here at S2K for free!....MGC

Bingo

[jasons2k]

Pay 20 bucks a month for Joe? Why do that when you can get expert opinion here at S2K for free!....MGC

Bingo

I agree, after reading the analysis provided by Derek, Don, Jeff, Mike, Wxman57 and AFM....You just can't top that IMO. They are straight shooters an unselfishly provide the best there is to offer.

[The Sandcrab]

And if "straight shooters" aren't your cup of tea, there are plenty of posters more than happy to spin every thunderstorm between here and Togo into the next Katrina/Camille for some decidedly Bastardian forecasting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks that the east coast will be most at risk through September 15th, except for a possible "home brew" development in the Gulf this upcoming weekend or early next week. With this active east coast period, he also expects cooler than normal weather for the plains and east coast. After the 15th though, it looks like it may warm up again (though likely not AS hot due to it being closer to fall). Since we will be back to a similar pattern like the one we have been in...I would assume the GOM may have an increased storm risk beyond September 15th. An interesting month for both temperatures and tropics looks to be ahead..

[KatDaddy]

The lifting of the next trough over the Labor Day weekend and beyond will be of interest. This could create favorable conditions for GOM homebrew. At least I can go to Dallas over the Labor Weekend without any concern of a tropical system threatening the Houston-Galveston Area.

[dwg71]

JB thinks that the east coast will be most at risk through September 15th, except for a possible "home brew" development in the Gulf this upcoming weekend or early next week. With this active east coast period, he also expects cooler than normal weather for the plains and east coast. After the 15th though, it looks like it may warm up again (though likely not AS hot due to it being closer to fall). Since we will be back to a similar pattern like the one we have been in...I would assume the GOM may have an increased storm risk beyond September 15th. An interesting month for both temperatures and tropics looks to be ahead..

It appears that we are getting early "cold" (not real cold yet) fronts through TX this year, I'll take as many as we can get, they usually will protect us.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, notice that to...Fronts coming in this early in Texas is a great sign...Just may not be a good year for 'Cane lovers in this area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, notice that to...Fronts coming in this early in Texas is a great sign...Just may not be a good year for 'Cane lovers in this area.

yeah, the only chance we have of getting a cane now would be from a GOM homebrewed system or a system that comes through the Caribbean or FL (especially during late September when a ridge may build back in). If I remember correctly, I think I have heard that storms have hit the Houston area as late as October (Jerry in 1989 may be?). I am not letting my guard down just yet.

One thing that would be nice though is if these early fronts may be meant we are going to see a colder fall and winter than last year.

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UPDATE: Yes, I was right. After further research, I found that Jerry did hit in October. Amazingly, this shows that even as late as October 16th a storm could threaten. From the Houston NWS:

JERRY (Cat. 1 Hurricane - October 16th landfall)
Jerry originated from a tropical wave that moved across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. There were no additional signs of organization before it developed into a tropical depression on 10/12 as it moved into the Bay of Campeche. The depression attained tropical storm strength on the 13th. After some hesitation, shearing and a temporary turn to the northeast, Jerry turned toward the north northwest on the 15th and strengthened to a hurricane. The hurricane made landfall on Galveston Island, near Jamaica Beach, on the 16th. No hurricane had ever made landfall on the upper TX coast so late in the season. Once inland, Jerry moved over eastern TX, weakened rapidly, and was absorbed by a frontal trough late on the 16th. Maximum sustained surface winds of 65 knots with gusts to 87 knots were measured at Scholes Field on Galveston Island as the eyewall passed over the airport. The observation site lost power near this time, and the observer-estimated maximum sustained winds reached 70 knots with gusts of 90 to 100 knots. An extrapolated minimum central pressure of 982 mb was reported by a NOAA aircraft and by an Air Force plane just prior to landfall. Jerry killed three people, all by drowning when their car was either driven off the Galveston seawall during a blinding rain, or was blown off by the winds.

Jerry's effects were considered minor. There was little wind damage, as the cyclone was of small size and its tropical storm force winds were restricted to a narrow band along its path. Also, Jerry weakened quite rapidly from its already minimal hurricane status after landfall; maximum winds reported at Houston's Intercontinental and Hobby airports were both less than tropical force. The highest tide, 7.0 feet, was reported at Baytown on Galveston Bay, although unofficial reports of an 8 foot tide were received from near the entrance to the Houston ship channel just west of Baytown. Rainfall was generally 2 inches or less in the Houston area, and between 2 and 5 inches eastward from Galveston Bay to the state line. There was one report as high as 6.40 inches from Silsbee. Also, Jerry spawned six tornadoes over Southeast Texas, but all six were momentary and rated as F0 in intensity as they produced little damage along their short path lengths.

Damage estimates for the hurricane were near $70 million. Damage mainly consisted of light beach erosion on portions of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula, and some flooding. The flooding was mostly of the coastal type produced by storm surge, or of the urban street type caused by sudden isolated downpours of heavy rain.

[Furious George]

According to the NHC, of the 19 hurricanes to hit TX since 1951, 12 occured before September and 7 occured during September (they show 0 in October for some reason - maybe they forgot Jerry).

To me that means this hurricane season is still only about 60% over for TX. So if TX sees hurricanes aout 13% of the time every season and our season is just about half over, TX still has about a 6% chance of getting hit this year. And that's just going on climatology, not actual conditions expected. Basically, I'd put TX odds for a hurriance strike this year between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20. So yes, it's still possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.shtml

[skufful]

OK, So how has AccuWeather handles this storm. Did they start off with a TX hit like the NHC or what. If so, how they both be so wrong?

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK, So how has AccuWeather handles this storm. Did they start off with a TX hit like the NHC or what. If so, how they both be so wrong?

Yes, they originally started with TX and moved all the way back to FL (just like the NHC). They were both equally wrong this time around. The thing that got them both is the fact that there was not suppose to be as strong of a weakness in the high over FL and the storm was suppose to move around the ridge and into the central or western Gulf. As we all know though, things change and the rest is history (almost)..

[weatherrabbit_tx]

According to the NHC, of the 19 hurricanes to hit TX since 1951, 12 occured before September and 7 occured during September (they show 0 in October for some reason - maybe they forgot Jerry).

To me that means this hurricane season is still only about 60% over for TX. So if TX sees hurricanes aout 13% of the time every season and our season is just about half over, TX still has about a 6% chance of getting hit this year. And that's just going on climatology, not actual conditions expected. Basically, I'd put TX odds for a hurriance strike this year between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20. So yes, it's still possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.shtml

before jerry there was a hurricane that hit around the freeport area in oct. 3-4 1949( it was a cat. 4 at one time before landfall) so therefore 50 years past then came along jerry, I have heard jb talk about that. he also feared that was going to challenged in oct. 2002 with Lili of course the front/trough pushed into LA.

[KatDaddy]

1949.............135MPH at Freeport,TX

[Portastorm]

"Home brew in the Gulf" ... ha!

You have to be DRINKING home brew to think we're going to see any tropical system activity west of 95.

This year is the East Coast's season.