Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

#281 Postby **AJC3** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:05 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
AJC3 wrote:One problem with what you're saying here - the first sentence. Water Vapor imagery shows almost nothing below 600MB. I'm not saying you're correct or incorrect in your synoptic reasoning, however WV imagery is not going to show you anything at the lower levels.

Perhaps not at the lowest levels, but at the intermediate low-mid levels it probably does. Thanks for the information, though.

This will give you an idea of what type of spectral response the G-11 water vapor channel 3 imagery has:

http://meted.ucar.edu/satmet/goeschan/print/6_3_4.htm

MiamiensisWx · #282 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:07 pm

AJC3 wrote:This will give you an idea of what type of spectral response the G-11 water vapor channel 3 imagery has:

http://meted.ucar.edu/satmet/goeschan/print/6_3_4.htm

OK, so the moist air was in the middle layers, topped by the dry air and SAL intrusion I mentioned. Thanks. I was attempting to say that, but I didn't mention it correctly.

#283 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:09 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:TUTT just to the northwest of the wave... is moving in a westerly fashion..
as evidence here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

I was looking at this infra-red loop, which better indicates the movement of the TUTT if you look closely. It indicates that the TUTT is nearly stationary, NOT moving west.

Is there anyway you could indicate on a map where that feature is your talking about?

#1 or #2

MiamiensisWx · #284 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:10 pm

It's the area between #1 and #2, Nathan. That's where the upper-level TUTT trough axis is located as a rough estimate.

#285 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:11 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:It's the area between #1 and #2, Nathan. That's where the upper-level TUTT trough axis is located as a rough estimate.

Really?

HurricaneHunter914 · #286 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:14 pm

I thought dry air was indicated by the bright orange areas?.

#287 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:17 pm

I will agree it is shallow looking but, I don't think it is being affected that much from the dry air to the north.
The trough farther off to the northwest I will agree that is not moving much but looks to be getting squeezed. I am also noticing more water vapor than we have seen all season so far along the itcz. I think this may have something to do with positive MJO.

IMO I think we'll see a flare up in the overnight hours... The sal dry air is not as dense as it has been for the past few weeks. IMO I think we'll see 97L by tomorrow night... this might not form into a tropical depression but, with a positive MJO in the Atlantic it is likely we will see one in the next week.

I am editing my prediction... as I was wrong about how to look for a TUTT.

MiamiensisWx · #288 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:20 pm

Nathan, here is where I believe the TUTT axis is and the effects that are occurring...

While the wave may be entering into a more favorable MJO environment, it may still be under some shear; however, the wave may still maintain some persistent convection, as the shear likely won't be enough to completely disrupt the convective activity.

#289 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:21 pm

Excellent graphic... thank you

HurricaneMaster_PR · #290 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:23 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Weatherfreak000 · #291 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:24 pm

Is it possible the TUTT will retrograde and conditions will become more favorable for the wave about to move off of Africa?

What do you think conditions appear likely to hold as far as favorability with that system?

#292 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:25 pm

Right they are not mentioning it on the TWD but, in the Discussion they do mention it.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

It is going to have to persist for the next day and keep the low level cyclonic turning.

MiamiensisWx · #293 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:28 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Is it possible the TUTT will retrograde and conditions will become more favorable for the wave about to move off of Africa?

What do you think conditions appear likely to hold as far as favorability with that system?

Right now, the system is starting to interact with the TUTT, which may increase the shear over the system through the next 48 hours. As the TUTT pulls out and the system moves past the TUTT, shear may relax a bit, but still persist a bit, although the wave likely will retain some signature and may be moving into a more favorable MJO environment and slightly lower shear, which may result, along the synoptics, in periodic organization bursts of convection.

#294 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:51 pm

Mike Watkins mentioned this wave at his show.He says,it's still early as climo doesn't favor that area for development but it's something to watch.

#295 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:54 pm

Central Atlantic Image

:uarrow:

Already the wave is seen in the Central Atlantic image although not the whole system yet.

#296 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Central Atlantic Image

Already the wave is seen in the Central Atlantic image although not the whole system yet.

Sweet

cheezyWXguy · #297 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:16 pm

ya i have a great feeling about this wave...I think its going to develop into a TD (as long as it keeps its convection)when it reaches 50 where the water warms up again and the shear and pressures are lower, along with less dry air/SAL

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #298 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:59 pm

This tropical wave/distrabance is at 12 north/28.5 west...As you can see that there is dry air at the lower levels out ahead of it(Pass 35 west)Which should give it another 12 to 24 hours...With moist air mass covering south of 15 north from 35 west. This system has great rotation/curving of cloud mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Wind shear is decreasing at 5 to 10 knots ahead of it...From 12 north from 30 to 40 west...While the area below this is increasing upper level winds shear.

Also the tutt is located over the caribbean...Which its front/right side has the strong shear over the eastern Caribbean/islands. TThe ULL is at 20 north/63 west.

At the surface level you can see that pass 35 west the lower level easly flow gets stronger. Meaning that this system will mor likely pick up speed. Which is easly shear...

On the water vapor you can also see that the Azores high pushs down at 40 to 55 west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

In which you can see it on this surface flow...Also you can see 20 knot winds coming out of the east, from Africa to 30 west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

The Number one factor is dry air/sal, which this system has it all around. In at the mid levels this air is likely forcing decent of the air...Which is a cape on convection.

So one it has a pocket of light westly wind shear...But wind shear increases to 20 to 40 knots after 40 west. 2# Its dealing with both dry air and eastly shear now.

In lastly is the SST's are hardly high enough...They are around 26.5c...Which is very little to burst the dry air layer...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

#299 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:03 pm

It may be one of those sacrificial waves...

HurricaneHunter914 · #300 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:40 pm

I highly doubt that.

Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

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