INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[tailgater]

HUC are you sure about that loc., I see it at 10.3 N and 51W.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/287.jpg

Try this still. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... CEtVS5.jpg

[HUC]

Thank's for the link;seems that this low is consolidatig itself!!!

[ThunderMate]

is that swirl the LLC?

[tailgater]

Thank's for the link;seems that this low is consolidatig itself!!!

Looks like it might be headed your way, I haven't check out what lies ahead for this Invest but yall may get some early season action. Keep us updated on your local conditions please.

[HUC]

I'am not a weatherman,so this just an opinion:i should say yes.But in these young systems you can have several swirls,and perhaps the convection more to the Ne of this swirl got an other LLC...The official forecasters will tell.

[CHRISTY]

Hey guys whats up been away for a few days a wanted to comment briefly on 93L cause iam at work iam really not expecting much from this system because its going to run into some pretty unfavorable conditions throughout the caribbean if it ever gets there cause its been at a low latitude at the same time thats whats been saving it until now.but i will say its been pretty active as far as activity tryin to get going.I think the over all conditions are trying to tell us something meaning if we have these kind of systems popping up in late august and september the might not fizzzle out as conditions then will be over all more favorable,of course thats not a for sure thing.so ya invest wise they have been coming along at pretty good clip but remeber its only june,hopefully these arent signs of whats coming during the heart of the season. chrisy

[O Town]

Well if it gets better organized in the next day or two it will be heading north and miss the strong shear in the caribbean. Model plots take in north but I know they are assuming this thing is better organized when it is not. We will just have to wait and see.

[CHRISTY]

Well if it gets better organized in the next day or two it will be heading north and miss the strong shear in the caribbean. Model plots take in north but I know they are assuming this thing is better organized when it is not. We will just have to wait and see.

yea i agree O Town its gotta get better organized first.....

[Nimbus]

Floater 2 is monitoring the area south of 10N. If the convection firing up near 10N is an indication of lowest pressure than some energy has shifted north some.

WXman57's forecast for a blocking ridge next weekend is bad news.

This thing is still moving pretty fast and climo model would suggest that it might not get organized for a few days. I'm looking for reasons why this thing should not develop. There is some banded convection on the west side but the low surface pressure may be broad enough that it has a difficult time getting a well defined center.

[CHRISTY]

Floater 2 is monitoring the area south of 10N. If the convection firing up near 10N is an indication of lowest pressure than some energy has shifted north some.

WXman57's forecast for a blocking ridge next weekend is bad news.

This thing is still moving pretty fast and climo model would suggest that it might not get organized for a few days. I'm looking for reasons why this thing should not develop. There is some banded convection on the west side but the low surface pressure may be broad enough that it has a difficult time getting a well defined center.

its going moving to fast and also even more imporatant its going to run into some pretty unfavorable conditions.

[Windtalker1]

Floater 2 is monitoring the area south of 10N. If the convection firing up near 10N is an indication of lowest pressure than some energy has shifted north some.

WXman57's forecast for a blocking ridge next weekend is bad news.

This thing is still moving pretty fast and climo model would suggest that it might not get organized for a few days. I'm looking for reasons why this thing should not develop. There is some banded convection on the west side but the low surface pressure may be broad enough that it has a difficult time getting a well defined center.

its going moving to fast and also even more imporatant its going to run into some pretty unfavorable conditions.

Not if it's path is toward the NE....if it heads into the Caribbean, then I would say it has an uphill fight. If it heads toward P.R. it will be on the outer most fringes of the sheer.

[tailgater]

Floater 2 is monitoring the area south of 10N. If the convection firing up near 10N is an indication of lowest pressure than some energy has shifted north some.

WXman57's forecast for a blocking ridge next weekend is bad news.

This thing is still moving pretty fast and climo model would suggest that it might not get organized for a few days. I'm looking for reasons why this thing should not develop. There is some banded convection on the west side but the low surface pressure may be broad enough that it has a difficult time getting a well defined center.

I agree with all you said but early Vis. do show a fairly define LLC( IMHO)with no T-storm on top of it, but it does seem to be sucking some into it's center, time will tell I guess.

[Vortex]

LLC easily identified on this morning's Vis. In addition convection is firing on the east side of the center. Either way, a very impressive feature for late June.

[x-y-no]

The Floater 2 page at SSD labels this 94L. Guess they're as confused as we are..


Definitely looks like an LLC is developing at around 10.5N 51.0W or so. Moving fairly rapidly WNW.

Very little convection close to the center, but as Vortex points out, there's some firing on the trailing side. If it slows down a little, I think it has a fair shot at developing.

[wxman57]

I do see a weak lower (perhaps not sfc) level circulation center near 11N/52W that has moved at 18.1 kts since 24 hours ago - almost due west. As I mentioned yesterday, the very fast movement is making it hard to develop any convergence for thunderstorms to persist over one spot.

I don't buy the BAM models as I don't think they're taking into account the building ridge north of the sytstem in a few days, so I prefer a more westerly motion. But there is a BIG problem once it reaches the Caribbean. 850mb flow is 35-40 kts from the east across the Caribbean and that flow only increases by the weekend. So anything moving into the Caribbean in 2-3 days will likely be ripped to shreads. See the two maps below:

Current sfc analysis with satellite and area of concern indicated:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Le.gif

Today's 850mb flow. The 35-40kt wind area expands eastward with time:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Lf.gif

So I think that this system may have a very hard time organizing as it races westward over the next 5-6 days. MAYBE if it slows down (and there is anything left) by the time it nears Honduras this weekend it could generate some persistent storms and have a shot at developing before it moves across the BoC.

[x-y-no]

I do see a weak lower (perhaps not sfc) level circulation center near 11N/57W that has moved at 18.1 kts since 24 hours ago - almost due west. As I mentioned yesterday, the very fast movement is making it hard to develop any convergence for thunderstorms to persist over one spot.

11N/57W? Really? I just see ENE winds there at the surface.

...

Current sfc analysis with satellite and area of concern indicated:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Le.gif

Yeah, OK, that's more like it. Your Low is marked at 51W.

So I think that this system may have a very hard time organizing as it races westward over the next 5-6 days. MAYBE if it slows down (and there is anything left) by the time it nears Honduras this weekend it could generate some persistent storms and have a shot at developing before it moves across the BoC.

No argument there. It's moving too fast right now to have much chance.

[wxman57]

I do see a weak lower (perhaps not sfc) level circulation center near 11N/57W that has moved at 18.1 kts since 24 hours ago - almost due west. As I mentioned yesterday, the very fast movement is making it hard to develop any convergence for thunderstorms to persist over one spot.

11N/57W? Really? I just see ENE winds there at the surface.

...

Current sfc analysis with satellite and area of concern indicated:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Le.gif

Yeah, OK, that's more like it. Your Low is marked at 51W.

So I think that this system may have a very hard time organizing as it races westward over the next 5-6 days. MAYBE if it slows down (and there is anything left) by the time it nears Honduras this weekend it could generate some persistent storms and have a shot at developing before it moves across the BoC.

No argument there. It's moving too fast right now to have much chance.

Yep, I meant 52W, not 57W.

[cheezyWXguy]

It appears that the LLC is forming some convection...If you look at the visible short loop of the LLC you can see a tiny flare-up right over the center in the last frame(Or am I seeing things)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

EDIT:nvm about the tiny flate-up...yoou probably cant see it due to the fact that it merged with the larger convection burst...it appears to be swallowing the LLC fast

[beachbum_al]

I probably shouldn't voice my opinion since I don't really know what I am talking about but I think there was a small circulation at the very end. If there isn't just ignore my post.

[wxman57]

Here's a new satellite image of the wave. As you can see, there no longer appears to be any cicrulation center aloft. The rapid westward movement is taking its toll.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lg.gif