96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

boca · #281 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:29 pm

Cheezywoman the count at 279 including mine now so your computer is fine.

cheezyWXguy · #282 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:35 pm

o...but also, its cheexyWXman, not cheezywoman(wx=weather)Im a guy :lol:

boca · #283 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:40 pm

sorry about that. 8-)

canegrl04 · #284 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:55 pm

"Cheezywoman" :A:

gtalum · #285 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:09 pm

I think it's going to be a 200 MPH Category 5 cane going right up Tampa Bay.

Just kidding.

#286 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:16 pm

[quote="gtalum"]I think it's going to be a 200 MPH Category 5 cane going right up Tampa Bay.

:fools:

marcane_1973 · #287 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:20 pm

and....POOF just like that the convection is going away and the dry air is killing it. I dont think we will see a named storm till last week in July or mid August. This looks like a year similar to 2004 or maybe even a suprising dud year that develops 1 major cane hitting the U.S. Years similar to when Andrew and Hugo formed that were below average seasons. This is just my opinion. We will all have to wait and see things in the atmosphere can change pretty quick.

Rainband · #288 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:21 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:and....POOF just like that the convection is going away and the dry air is killing it. I dont think we will see a named storm till last week in July or mid August. This looks like a year similar to 2004 or maybe even a suprising dud year that develops 1 major cane hitting the U.S. Years similar to when Andrew and Hugo formed that were non active seasons. This is just my opinion. We will all have to wait and see things in the atmosphere can change pretty quick.

It is normal not to have development till August :wink:

Ivan14 · #289 Postby **Ivan14** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:23 pm

SEASON CANCELED it has to be a dud JK. Anyway, IMO I don't think it will develop to much dry air and shear. Maybe if the shear laxes we could get a T.D. or even beryl. I just don't see that happening though.

#290 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:43 pm

2pm discussion really lays it on the line, from perspective of tropical cyclone development:

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF IN FACT ANYTHING HAPPENS AT ALL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...
:lol:

Jam151 · #291 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:53 pm

Poof, like i said wait till august.

#292 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:56 pm

Here's a GARP image with visible satellite and surface obs. Minimal convection this afternoon, a slight mid-level turning where I've indicated the "X". Chances of development prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean appear low. And once it enters the eastern Caribbean, wind shear may be on the increase. The greatest threat for any development may come next weekend of it reaches the southern Gulf.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl3.gif

cheezyWXguy · #293 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:59 pm

Its not dead...in fact I can see a circulation better defined now than any other time before...even though it has just about no convection, its still there, and should be watched until we know its gone for good..it hasnt "poofed" just the convection...its obvious that if there was no dry air/shear this thing would be beryl right now...look at this RGB loop, its easy to see those low/ mid level clouds swirling

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

#294 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:59 pm

bvigal wrote:2pm discussion really lays it on the line, from perspective of tropical cyclone development:

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF IN FACT ANYTHING HAPPENS AT ALL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...

Wait a minute, I thought that many of you were saying that shear was killing this system right now, the NHC doesn't seem to think that is the shear right now. I'm glad the NHC mentioned about the upper level ridge being on top of this wave.

#295 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:03 pm

Jam151 wrote:Poof, like i said wait till august.

The more and more I read, the more I smell troll. It's by no means "poof". It's a freakin' tropical wave. It's allowed to lose convection. The axis is still there, and the structure is still there.

Jim Cantore · #296 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:08 pm

Anything can happen

#297 Postby **secretforecaster** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:09 pm

Well said Floyd...and we ALL know what happened with that one :eek:

Opal storm · #298 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:09 pm

skysummit wrote:
Jam151 wrote:Poof, like i said wait till august.

The more and more I read, the more I smell troll. It's by no means "poof". It's a freakin' tropical wave. It's allowed to lose convection. The axis is still there, and the structure is still there.

Thank you.

DESTRUCTION5 · #299 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:09 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Anything can happen

LOL...good one

HurricaneHunter914 · #300 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:10 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

There is still some evident circulation and convection associated with this Invest so it has not gone poof yet.

96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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