98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Frank2 · #281 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:33 am

Re: wxman57's post

I agree - looking at the IR loop, it seems the "circulation center" is already well inland.

Aside from that, the tropics are still very quiet - out to the African coast...

Frank

southerngale · #282 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:42 am

Just curious...why did the NHC bother with this a few hours ago then? If it's over land, what's to "possibly" develop in the next day or two?

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

#283 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:48 am

southerngale wrote:Just curious...why did the NHC bother with this a few hours ago then? If it's over land, what's to "possibly" develop in the next day or two?

They are talking about the whole system. The low or mid-level circulation could be inland but since it's a developing disturbance it's not professional or accurate to focus on just one center but look at the system as a whole. A center could redevelop over the Gulf of Mexico and they want to be ready in case this happens. Time will tell.

southerngale · #284 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:51 am

Alright, thanks for the explanation, HURAKAN. Hopefully it won't amount to much, except some rain for those who need it. It can skip us...we've had more than our fair share lately.

KatDaddy · #285 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:04 am

Ok ExtremeWeatherGuy. Curious what JoeB is saying this morning.

#286 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:07 am

Everything is so disorganized right now it's had to tell what is going on if anything.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Thunder44 · #287 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:09 am

12z Models initialize the "center" still just offshore off NE Mexico at 24N 97.2W and moving just west of due north at 8kts. It's just about 100 miles south of Brownsville, TX.

WHXX01 KWBC 241301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060724 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 1200 060725 0000 060725 1200 060726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 97.2W 25.3N 97.4W 26.6N 97.7W 27.7N 97.7W
BAMM 24.0N 97.2W 25.2N 97.9W 26.4N 98.5W 27.5N 98.7W
A98E 24.0N 97.2W 25.4N 97.3W 27.2N 97.1W 28.8N 96.6W
LBAR 24.0N 97.2W 25.4N 97.6W 27.1N 97.9W 28.8N 97.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 1200 060727 1200 060728 1200 060729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 97.9W 29.9N 99.0W 31.0N 100.0W 31.8N 100.7W
BAMM 28.4N 98.9W 30.1N 99.7W 31.6N 100.8W 33.2N 101.4W
A98E 30.1N 96.3W 31.6N 94.3W 33.6N 90.7W 37.1N 88.3W
LBAR 30.3N 97.0W 32.8N 94.9W 36.5N 91.0W 40.4N 84.4W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 53KTS 51KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 97.0W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 96.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#288 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:15 am

THis is getting more and more interesting...pressure is lowering...winds have been over 35 mph sustained and gusting over Tropical Storm force this morning. If this can stay offshore, then we can have Chris in 12 hours or less...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

#289 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:17 am

Stormcenter wrote:Everything is so disorganized right now it's had to tell what is going on if anything.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

When you click on the fronts box they show a Trough well offshore, but i don't know if that very accurate ?

Extremeweatherguy · #290 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:18 am

KatDaddy wrote:Ok ExtremeWeatherGuy. Curious what JoeB is saying this morning.

He said that this will at least be a heavy rainmaker for the TX coast with rain amounts to 10" possible. As for tropical development, the system has until Wednesday to turn into something. Even if it does develop, he said it would be a Frances or Fay like system at best (meaning an east sided, weak storm).

However, his post yesterday mentioned that he has a fear that TX will see a Cat. 2+ storm before the season is over. I hope he ends up wrong on that prediction..

beachbum_al · #291 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:22 am

It was mentioned here in Mobile but sounds like it will head toward South TX.

I am not sure what channel said it because I was getting dressed and just heard the weather man talking from the kitchen area. Could had been fox10 in Mobile but not positive.

#292 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:28 am

Even if it does develop, he said it would be a Fran or Fay like system at best (meaning an east sided, weak storm).

Fran was a cat 3 when it came to see us here NC in 96.

#293 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:29 am

NWS in New Orleans mentions it in their morning discussion.

Early this morning the frontal boundary stretched across central
Louisiana to central Mississippi...just north of our pcwa. An
upper-level shortwave was over Arkansas...with the main trough
pulling off the northeast coast. The front should drift north and
weaken today as the shortwave slowly progresses eastward. Precipitation
water values should remain above 2 inches today. Thus we should
have decent coverage of showers/thunderstorms across most of the
area. The next concern will be the tropical disturbance around the
Bay of Campeche. Both the GFS and NAM show some development with
this area of convection but differ on its movement. Both bring it
into Texas...with the name farther west and the GFS closer to the
Louisiana state line. Either way...our area should remain in deep
tropical flow through much of the week. If it progresses farther
east...we could see more convection for the middle part of the
week. An upper-level ridge will spread across the area the latter
half of the week...helping to lessen the chances for precipitation a
little bit.

Extremeweatherguy · #294 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:29 am

storms in NC wrote:
Even if it does develop, he said it would be a Fran or Fay like system at best (meaning an east sided, weak storm).

Fran was a cat 3 when it came to see us here NC in 96.

Oh, sorry. I meant to write Frances.

#295 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:50 am

Some are arguing that a circulation is already inland, but if it would had been at a stronger stage, I would say "yeah, forget about it, its inland", but you know that when a system is at a weak broad low stage a circulation can form or reform anywhere.

#296 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:53 am

NDG wrote:Some are arguing that a circulation is already inland, but if it would had been at a stronger stage, I would say "yeah, forget about it, its inland", but you know that when a system is at a weak broad low stage a circulation can form or reform anywhere.

All of the deep convection is offshore and it looks like it's concentrating somewhat just off the Mexican coastline. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

perk · #297 Postby **perk** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:57 am

WXMAN57 and some other members have mentioned that the center is already inland, but after an extensive look at the infrared,wv, and the early visable i cannot find a center inland or over water.

Stormavoider · #298 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:02 am

My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.

#299 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:03 am

I still say that this system will affect more of the upper TX coast & SW LA. The trough of low pressure is hanging around long enough that area that should draw the moisture more their way.

#300 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:06 am

Stormavoider wrote:My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.

It looks more like a northward movement.

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