Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Grease Monkey]

pretty wild how the posting on this thread almost comes to a dead stop as soon as they mention that this system won't develop and will dissipate, hehe.... I was hoping it would develop myself, but of course that it would go out to sea after it developed.

Well if that's true. I have a feeling they'll be back very soon when the next couple or so advisories come out.

[curtadams]

I'm disturbed that the globals have performed so poorly on this system. They've been consistently predicting immediate dissipation for the past 2 days (except for once when the GFS was reasonably close to what happened) and it's never done that or even come close. It seems they do not understand this system at all, which suggests this is an odd storm and can surprise people. It also means the NHC lacks its primary tool for track forecasts, so track forecasts are ususually questionable here. I place virtually no confidence in their predictions of immediate dissipation for exactly that reason.
Also, the neat little smallest-TS-you-ever-saw has metamorphosed into an unholy mess. I hope quickscat can spot the center(s) because I sure can't.

[Andrew92]

Everyone is talking about down the road but what do you think about it currently compared to earlier?

I'm not denying that it looks better compared to earlier. But that's not always saying a lot. It obviously has a LLC and convection is trying to form near the center. However, if the LLC is ill-defined, it will continue to struggle to intensify.

-Andrew92

[curtadams]

the key here (in the next few hours) is does this hit as a strom before hitting the islands. The long term can wait, though I am cautious on the dissipaton as some research I am about to submot to MWR shows that you need strong shear to get dry air into the core

Makes sense, but this thing has had at least moderate shear and dry air its whole life and it's doing pretty well. Shouldn't the current shear be enough to get dry air into the core?

[HouTXmetro]

well the track takes it North of the big Islands.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Radar of Martinique

[wxmann_91]

The current shear is nothing compared to the environment it's going into in 72 hr. That TUTT's creating 40 kt shear, at least.

Curtadams, I'm surprised you're from southern California as well! That's pretty cool...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The current shear is nothing compared to the environment it's going into in 72 hr. That TUTT's creating 40 kt shear, at least.

Curtadams, I'm surprised you're from southern California as well! That's pretty cool...

This system will not be in 40 kt. shear anytime soon.

[CrazyC83]

My thought: it will be a TS by morning, then hold that intensity before the 40kt shear takes over and kills it off...

[TS Zack]

First they say it will not develop, now they say it won't do anything but dissipate? I know many crow eaters now! LOL

Anyway it does not take much for a system to go another 5mph. This might already be Chris, deep convection will produce ts force winds. The reports from the islands or reconn may prove that tomorrow. Remember, we all doubted Alberto and one deep burst of convection almost got him to Hurricane strength.

[HouTXmetro]

so the TUTT isn't going to move or weaken?

[LaBreeze]

I'm going to be in Miami on Saturday, August 5th and Key West on Sunday, August 6th. I'm a bit concerned already about the probability of heavy rain or inclimate weather from this system. Anyone think that I should cancel my trip this soon, or should I wait closer to the weekend? Thanks in advance.

[Scorpion]

The ULL will move, and it could possibly even help the system. More likely, it will induce shear, but the system is tenacious and will survive.

[wxmann_91]

This system will not be in 40 kt. shear anytime soon.

But it will be in the dry SAL air. Pick your poison.

The TUTT might weaken somewhat but there's probably still some pretty strong shear impacting a pretty fragile system (thanks to the dryness). In addition, any deviation south of the track places it near Hispaniola, that will present its own problems.

Remember Debby of 2000? If a hurricane can get that beat up by Hispaniola and TUTT, I don't see why TD 3 won't.

[Bailey1777]

On the radar loop posted it appears like it's moving due West almost a little South of due West.

[Normandy]

Well it has to hit Hispanola like Debby first. It seems like lots of people don't want this to develop (for good reasons)

[GeneratorPower]

I'm going to be in Miami on Saturday, August 5th and Key West on Sunday, August 6th. I'm a bit concerned already about the probability of heavy rain or inclimate weather from this system. Anyone think that I should cancel my trip this soon, or should I wait closer to the weekend? Thanks in advance.

It's probably a toss up. If it were me, I'd proceed with caution. Then keep following it to the weekend and see. One thing is for sure, you can't trust the forecasts 5 days out so there is no way to know for sure.

[Scorpion]

This system will not be in 40 kt. shear anytime soon.

But it will be in the dry SAL air. Pick your poison.

The TUTT might weaken somewhat but there's probably still some pretty strong shear impacting a pretty fragile system (thanks to the dryness). In addition, any deviation south of the track places it near Hispaniola, that will present its own problems.

Remember Debby of 2000? If a hurricane can get that beat up by Hispaniola and TUTT, I don't see why TD 3 won't.

It has survived the worst of the SAL already. No reason to think it won't survive this. If anything, I heard it was going into a more moist environment.

[LaBreeze]

Exactly Normandy! No development - Let it be a fish or a fizzle.

[SootyTern]

LaBreeze,

Naah. Don't cancel your trip unless there is clearly going to be an actual hurricane bearing down on us next weekend. If Floridians cancelled everything due to the threat of rain, nothing outside would get done for 6 months of the year!