Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

[Starburst]

I agree Southerngale this area is huge. Those are some cold clouds. I do not think it would take much for this area to get going.

[Thunder44]

34.6 kts sustained 1-min average winds reported in the last hour at bouy 42056 which is right under that cluster of thunderstorms.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

This area should be mentioned in the TWO, even if they don't think it will develop, it's still a significant feature in the tropics.

[Frank P]

Looks very impressive on the IR, tops might be cooling a tad on the leading edge north, but nevertheless a lot of convection and wind... pressure not all that low near the buoy at the moment... this IR pix got my attention... appears to be moving as best I can tell either NNW or N

[skysummit]

Still looks rather good. Heck...it has more convection than Ileana! CIMSS is not showing any surface vorticity or convergence though, but something is making this t-storms regenerate. It's still moving into a low shear environment and the steering flow is to the NNW/NW.

[Frank P]

Yeah, looking at the WV loop the heavest convection almost hints of that comma shape .... pretty close to where Alberto formed .... but is sure does appear at the moment have that "look about it"... then again several days ago it also had that look as well.... lets see if it wants to be a player or not...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

[StrongWind]

Nice blob! Heading right for the loop current, after that looks like it may track more toward the NE.

Can a blob moving due North develop some spin or does it need to have some lateral (E/W) movement as well?

[Frank P]

Nice blob! Heading right for the loop current, after that looks like it may track more toward the NE.

Can a blob moving due North develop some spin or does it need to have some lateral (E/W) movement as well?

checking out the upper level wind analysis I think most likely this thing will go more to the north then north west, unless it can find some kind of weakness that would allow it to go northeast... at least that the steering pattern at the moment as best I can tell

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[Frank P]

Nice blob! Heading right for the loop current, after that looks like it may track more toward the NE.

Can a blob moving due North develop some spin or does it need to have some lateral (E/W) movement as well?

it can develop spin moving any direction if the atmospheric conditions are met

[skysummit]

The 00z Canadian does develop it and brings it in between Houston and Port Arthur, TX.
(it also develops the central Atlantic wave and turns it into a nice storm entering the gulf by way of the Yucatan Channel)

The 00z MM5 does nothing with it, but also develops the wave into a storm and brings it to the southeastern tip of Cuba.

The 00z GFS does nothing with it.

[skysummit]

The 06z NAM brings it into the northeastern gulf at the end of its run. It also begins to develop the central Atlantic wave in the Carribean.

[beachbum_al]

I hope we don't see one, two, bam in the Gulf.

[Frank P]

no joke, and the models have this blob spread out from the NW to the NE GOM..... not good either..... but still a lot needs to happen for any of this to come to fruition.... models have been premature quite often this season.... I guess you could say they have been prematurely speculating... hope they are wrong again.... but eventually they are going to nail something... I just hope its not me again..

[skysummit]

Middle to upper 80's all the way to the coast. I saw stations reporting 90 degrees at the coast.

[skysummit]

From NOLA:

IN THE TROPICS...A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS PRODUCED GALE FORCE GUSTS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...PERHAPS INDUCED BY PASSAGE OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRUNG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONSEQUENCE WITHIN
THE GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Nimbus]

The Yucatan coast may help focus some of this energy. Something would need to get going before this starts interacting with the mid gulf trough though.

[Starburst]

Isn't the loop current really close to this huge convective blob?

[TampaFl]

Tops warming a bit, but still very impressive comma shape this early AM. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/satellite/goes_loop.cgi?/var/www/leads_images/satellite/GOES/GMH/IR/


Robert

[ronjon]

The system from SAT is splitting in two with one wave moving W-NW toward the BOC and the more prominent convective complex drifting north toward the SE GOM. The CMC wants to eventually develop the BOC wave and move it north into the western gulf coast while the 06z NAM spins up a broad area of low pressure in the eastern GOM. Over the next day or two, the eastern GOM looks very favorable for development with some of the highest tropical cyclone potential in the GOM. The ULL in the NE GOM is moving W-NW away from the area.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Frank P]

Tops warming a bit, but still very impressive comma shape this early AM. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/satellite/goes_loop.cgi?/var/www/leads_images/satellite/GOES/GMH/IR/


Robert

Yeah its cooled quite a bit in the last hour or so... NOLA not to bullish on this system at the moment.... maybe it will slip over to the BOC area and perhaps have a better chance of development... regarless I hope it just poofs out like so many of them have this season...

[Sanibel]

Serious noctural red-top flare last night. Upper trough visible in cloud shape. Should hamper any formation, but system is now persisting with round shape.

Climatology and disturbance behavior and shape strongly suggest development from this one. I would watch for sudden LLC under convection from this over hot NW Caribbean.