Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Air Force Met]

AFM what's your opinion on this invest.? Waste of time or potential player?

Potential player down the road...but it has to shake the dry air first...and unless it does that really quick...it will have the eastern Caribbean to deal with. I think this is something we have to watch 3+ days from now.

Edit: Also...it better gain some latitude or it will run aground.

[Bailey1777]

Thanks as always friend.

[jlauderdal]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

I'll be happy to exchange real estate for a few hours, if a threat were to ever verify...

I will pass on that.....

did you guys see this from the AFD this morning?

WITH
THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

Seems like anything that works into the Gulf is coming our way...let's just hope 97L doesn't make it to the Gulf.

yeah you dont need to worry, it might not develop, it might go to mexico or it could go somewhere else other than your location.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 231400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 23 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 11.5N 59.0W
E. 24/1600Z TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 25/1800Z
NEAR 13N AND 64W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



If necessary for tommorow afternoon.

bvigal,it's a southtracker so no worries for us up here.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looks like what ever circulation this invest has is trying to make its way under the northern most area of convection.

[Blown Away]

GFDL is showing a NW track while the others are showing a WNW track??

[jasons2k]

Hey EWG, that's the source of my concern - the ridge placement next week. It looks like a channel will open-up right over Texas. The big question is will this make it to the WCAR and develop? Too early to tell IMO, but I'm watching closely.

[gerrit]

bvigal,it's a southtracker so no worries for us up here.

Good news, thanks Luis.

[jasons2k]

GFDL is showing a NW track while the others are showing a WNW track??

Yeah, but look at where it initialized; it's an off run.

[crown]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

I don't know about you guys, but 97L already looks like a TD.

Precisely which part of if resembles a TD?!?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 231517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 500 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[skysummit]

New convection really looks to be firing around 97L now, however, it looks like it may not miss S.A. if it doesn't start gaining latitude soon.

[Sanibel]

Another strange system. Appears to be undergoing slow organization. Flattened surface feature W-E. Convection ragged, but located over surface feature.

If this follows 2006 trend it will excite us, make people like me trumpet it, and then make fools out of us once again. We'll see if the prime season wet phase makes a difference.

[GeneratorPower]

It's chugging along towards the West. Like skysummit said, it needs to gain latitude now. Looking good, otherwise.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Gathering some steam...I would say this has major potential of it lifts a degree or 2..

[GeneratorPower]

Or if the center forms to the north side. The main swirl is off to the northeast of the convection it seems.

[mj]

Interesting models here showing a WNW track or are they all wrong again. We'll see I guess.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

[Stormcenter]

This could be at worst a Windward Islands & Central America event if it doesn't gain any latitude, otherwise it will plow right into South America.

[jasons2k]

Jeff Masters said the "NHC" designated this as 97L.

I'm 99% sure invests are designated by the Navy unless I'm missing something?!?!?

[skysummit]

I'm looking at the Rainbow imagery of the SSD site and I believe I'm noticing something in particular. To my eyes, it looks as though convection is beginning to develop in a counterclockwise fashion around the perimeter of what looks to be the center. Does anyone else see this? If what I'm seeing is correct, then it looks like it may barely miss S.A. even if it wouldn't get any latitude.

Take a look at the Rainbow loop and tell me your opinions.
SSD Rainbow Animation