EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
254 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 26 2006 - 12Z WED AUG 30 2006
THE PRELIM HPC FCST WAS DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOR DAYS 3-5 AND THEN THE 00Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER...NOW PREFER FOR OUR FINAL PROGS TO TREND OUR PRELIM GUIDANCE PARTIALLY
TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE 12 UTC GFS CONSIDERING FAVORABLE SUPPORT TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IN MUCH OF THE NEWER 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...A TREND THAT WOULD BRING HPC GUIDANCE INTO BETTER CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS HPC GUIDANCE.
D+8 MEAN CHARTS FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE XISTENCE/STRENGTH OF BEST DEFINED FEATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST COMMON ANOMALY CENTERS HAVE BEEN POSITIVE ONES OVER THE WRN ALEUTIANS/KAMCHATKA AND GREENLAND... AND A NEGATIVE CENTER OVER THE EXTREME NERN ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY CORRESPOND TO A
MEAN TROF OVER ERN NOAM AND LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER WRN NOAM. THERE IS NOT YET CLEAR SUPPORT FOR A CNTRL ALEUTIANS RIDGE THAT YIELDS THE MORE MPLIFIED NERN PAC TROF OF THE 00Z AND YDAYS 12Z GFS RUNS...BUT
LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR CERTAINLY OPENS THE DOOR FOR THAT POTENTIAL TO BE MONITORED.
Hmmm, sounds like a lot of uncertainty as to the upper air pattern in 6-7 days. I don't like the talk of a more amplified pattern.
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