Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Scorpion

#281 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:23 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:The NHC (right now) has TD5 a TS for at least the next 5 days.

Do you guys think that will pan out?


The NHC is almost always conservative in their first forecast. The ULL is a complicated situation.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weatherrabbit_tx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 270
Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2005 3:13 pm
Location: Kingwood,Tx
Contact:
Contact weatherrabbit_tx

#282 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:23 pm

I noticed that too with claudette in '03 the experts said brownsville ended up port o'conner, same thing with rita brownsville or south of corpus ended up tx/la border.........we may again be in the crosshairs! :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TSmith274
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:11 am
Location: New Orleans, La.

#283 Postby TSmith274 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:25 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:That goes in my Best of LBAR 2006 8-)


LBAR Supercomputer EXPOSED!!...
Image

Sorry mods...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
all_we_know_is_FALLING
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
Contact:
Contact all_we_know_is_FALLING

#284 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:26 pm

Scorpion wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:The NHC (right now) has TD5 a TS for at least the next 5 days.

Do you guys think that will pan out?


The NHC is almost always conservative in their first forecast. The ULL is a complicated situation.


Oh ohkay. Thanks!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

#285 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:I've identified the approximate locations of the LLC and MLC here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby22.jpg


57, I'm curious why you think the LLC will reform under the MLC? Is that a somewhat common occurrence in systems like this? (learning question)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#286 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:31 pm

It looks like the LLC is beginning to reform or move under the MLC as we speak.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23006
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#287 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:33 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:The NHC (right now) has TD5 a TS for at least the next 5 days.

Do you guys think that will pan out?


I think that they don't want to alarm the general public TOO much on this initial advisory. Also, I noticed that the slowed "Ernesto" way down on days 3-5 to prevent it from being depicted in the Gulf, I suspect, on this first track. I had it at their 120hr position by early Tuesday morning, not 18Z Tuesday. I think the track may be at least 18 hours slow, maybe more.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
all_we_know_is_FALLING
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
Contact:
Contact all_we_know_is_FALLING

#288 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:The NHC (right now) has TD5 a TS for at least the next 5 days.

Do you guys think that will pan out?


I think that they don't want to alarm the general public TOO much on this initial advisory. Also, I noticed that the slowed "Ernesto" way down on days 3-5 to prevent it from being depicted in the Gulf, I suspect, on this first track. I had it at their 120hr position by early Tuesday morning, not 18Z Tuesday. I think the track may be at least 18 hours slow, maybe more.


I can see why they would do that. Especially with what has happened over the last 2 years.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#289 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:37 pm

TSmith that is hilarious.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#290 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:39 pm

Beginning to look pretty organized again.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#291 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:40 pm

I think the dry air maybe choking it a little, but i expect that to change when it heads farthur west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#292 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:53 pm

So do u think the center redeveloped or not? Some Met on another board says it did

Image
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#293 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:53 pm

GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.
0 likes   
Top
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#294 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:53 pm

SAL backs off:
12 hours ago
currently
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#295 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:55 pm

Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.


Beat me too it..
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#296 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:56 pm

sanibel go away :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#297 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:57 pm

the GFS is the last model I would trust

I'd go with the remainder of the guidance, until we get some G-IV data into the GFS
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#298 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:58 pm

Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.



I saw that Sanibel and that is probably why the GFDL turns it more northerly. Lets hope that ridge that was expected to be over the eastern Gulf materializes.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#299 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:58 pm

Storm size appears to be growing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#300 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:59 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2345 UTC 12.9N 62.7W T2.0/2.0 05L -- Atlantic Ocean
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Hurricaneman, kevin, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd and 49 guests