TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Noles2006]

Unless convection does not refire before the 11:00 advisory... I'd be willing to bet that they downgrade at 11.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The Year of to many upper lows!!

[Sanibel]

I'd say it is right on Jamaica at 15-18 knots.

[WxGuy1]

Ok, maybe I should only listen to the NHC. Pro-mets on here are saying different things, models flopping all over the place, it's going to dissapate, it's strengthening. Needless to say I'm quite fustrated.

Why be frustrated? At this point in the game, you shouldn't expect clear consensus... We just don't know about tropical cyclones for everyone to agree completely.

We all just need to be patient! Jumping ship based on one bit of information to the next is what causes this confusion. If you stick with the official NHC stuff (or a few highly credible folks on these boards), you'll be much less apt to feel like you're flopping around like a fish out of water. It seems that if one person squints and sees something bad on sat imagery, there'll be 20 people who post saying "yup, it seems it's done for". Try to use ALL the information at your fingertips to make an assessment, and please use the official NHC information when you want a single, overall assessment. Again, many folks on here are reliable IMO, but sticking with the NHC is the safest (although not necessarily the most timely -- that's a risk you take) forecast and assessment.

[Loring]

eager to get a named storm, yea?

[Air Force Met]

This one has heart. I think it will beat the shear. Watch for strong nocturnal refire tonight.

OK...this always makes me laugh. Storms don't have hearts...they aren't fighters...they are systems. They face patterns that either deepen them or kill them.

Unless the shear weakens...that nocturnal refire will not be over the center where it can do any good.

[Stormcenter]

This one has heart. I think it will beat the shear. Watch for strong nocturnal refire tonight.

It will refire but it may not be enough. Remember Chris did the same thing and it couldn't survive. But as always, anything can happen so I'm not writing off just yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

hehe, and this is a MET saying this folks ....I"m sure the posting in this thread will slow down significantlly once the boredom of this soon to be wave sets in.......

[TexWx]

Didn't Al Stewart write a song called, "Year of the Shear?"

[gatorcane]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

hehe, and this is a MET saying this folks ....I"m sure the posting in this thread will slow down significantlly once the boredom of this soon to be wave sets in.......

Yep lets see it pull a Chris........shouldn't be too long once that shear gets to it.

[Air Force Met]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

Notice that in the GOES-2, the NHC took off the forecast points. I think that means some big changes to the track?

Uh....no.

[curtadams]

Folks, let's wait and see the 5PM discussion, maybe the NHC forecasters see something that we are not taking into account. ie. Maybe they feel it will reform further east were the MLC is located.

My money's on the LLC for either survival or later reformation. Notice the MLC is weakening as they separate but the LLC is going strong. IMO the LLC could make it to Cuba as a naked swirl, and that's a lot of opportunity for regeneration.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Time to make this thread Ernesto...Its a TS

I thought it's Storm2k policy to wait until NHC declares a TS before changing the thread title (this was stated by Cycloneye Tuesday night when Debby became TS)....???

Thread titles have been changed when NRL or the models have upgraded before(I remember many TD's like that).

You can see what I'm talking about here:

Ok Folks,I put TD#4 again at the title of thread because I will go with the official word from NHC.This means although the SSD and Air Force sat estimates are of 2,5/2.5 which is tropical storm status and the models iniciate at 35 kts and 1003 mbs,I prefer to wait for the official information and that is the 11 PM AST Advisory.

[Trugunzn]

I cant beleive some of the people in here are writing this off, plus a Pro Met saying its 95% done. It is way far from over. Shear has been moving west and the storm is slower, A new LLC may form back in the convection and if if holds on all the way to western Carribean, we will have our first hurricane of the season. Way to early Lota stuff can happen now.

[jlauderdal]

Notice that in the GOES-2, the NHC took off the forecast points. I think that means some big changes to the track?[/quote]

oh lord, where do you think it will go now?

[Steve H.]

Actually, its improved during the last hour (basis structure). I expect that Ernesto will hold its own for the next 24 hours, then begin to deepen. The convection is trying to creep back toward the center. This is not a done deal folks. Ernie is here and he'll stay.

[gatorcane]

not with that huge TUTT low lurking to the west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a name in this will be upgraded at 5pm. When they say tropical storm 4 it doe's not mean it.

[sevenleft]

Folks, let's wait and see the 5PM discussion, maybe the NHC forecasters see something that we are not taking into account. ie. Maybe they feel it will reform further east were the MLC is located.

Just food for thought!

They probably named it because it was a TS for a few hours earlier. They probably won't have much good to say about its short term future tho.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the visible the LLC running away from the convection would be centered around 18/67.4, is that where thet are saying the center is??