Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Noles2006]

EWG - It just seems like you make everything seem like everything is heading towards Texas and as a possible major hurricane. I know I'm not the only one who notices this. Then, it seemed like you were upset that the pro mets no longer thought it was going to be as strong as first forecast.

[canegrl04]

Ernie is looking quite well right now Wait till he hits the steambath that is called the GOM

[Extremeweatherguy]

DID YOU ALL SEE THE GFDL???? IT IS FORECASTING A 130 KNOT HURRINCANE HEADED FOR LA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yes I saw it. It has shifted further west and has a much stronger storm than earlier.

[Scorpion]

DID YOU ALL SEE THE GFDL???? IT IS FORECASTING A 130 KNOT HURRINCANE HEADED FOR LA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Unless you have a link, don't say it.

[Sanibel]

All you need to know is it red-topped over the center in hostile shear (means strong storm).

I disagree with Derek. I think the shear is slacking.

[Stormcenter]

DID YOU ALL SEE THE GFDL???? IT IS FORECASTING A 130 KNOT HURRINCANE HEADED FOR LA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Link please.

[Noles2006]

It'll shift again, so no reason to get alarmed... yet...

[Scorpion]

Wow, he was right. That's crazy. 137 kts!

[jwayne]

Wow, he was right. That's crazy. 137 kts!

link???

[PTPatrick]

new GFDL much farther west in the Gulf, and stronger.

[rnbaida]

130+kt

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

the ML shear is slacking

ML shear comes from mid level features. Like being on the wrong side of a 500mb ridge

[Stormcenter]

new GFDL much farther west in the Gulf, and stronger.

Link showing the GFDL track please.

[PTrackerLA]

So much for the 95% chance "this system doesn't make it". It's most certainly holding it's own tonight and I'm afraid the gulf coast will have to deal with a major hurricane next week. There is very deep convection firing CLOSE to the LLC, this isn't a Chris situation unfortunately.

[Scorpion]

[jwayne]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

the ML shear is slacking

ML shear comes from mid level features. Like being on the wrong side of a 500mb ridge

so, are you now siding with NHC? or, do you still think upper level shear will be present for the next day and a half?

[AJC3]

ML shear is not from a TUTT, since the TUTT is at upper levels

Oh, so where does it come from? Is ML shear rare?

Not all TUTT lows are created equal. Some are shallow, while some have more of a mid level reflection beneath them. Remember, atmospheric features exist in 3D.

[rnbaida]

...Tropical Storm Ernesto continues west-northwestward over the
eastern Caribbean Sea...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border
westward to the southwest tip of Haiti.
A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica.

Interests in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba should monitor the
progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 68.4 west or about 285
miles...460 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic
and about 600 miles...965 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track the center of Ernesto will passing near the
southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected in association with
Ernesto across portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica...with 1-3 inches
expected for parts of Puerto Rico and the Dutch Netherland
Antilles.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...14.5 N...68.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40
mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Noles2006]

.... but that GFDL is quite scary....

[PTPatrick]

Of course, 24 hours ago it was flirting with the keys...so no reason to freak yet. It will move, but the take home message: at least the GFDL, one of the more reliable models, is sustaining this through the shear to live another day in the GOM.