T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Cape Verde]

uh-oh. they called it "NE" Texas instead of "SE". I guess Lufkin can expect to see some hurricane force winds next week!

They obviously mean the most NE part of the Texas coast. We see this geographical shorthand (and error) every hurricane season. The NE coast is obviously SE Texas.

Wish they'd stop doing it, but they never do.

[elarson1974]

The 2am and 2pm tracks are the same as 11pm and 11am. Just the initial position changed.

thx...that makes sense now

[Bailey1777]

AFM do you know what happened with recon? Seems to be some technical difficulties.

[Portastorm]

AFM do you know what happened with recon? Seems to be some technical difficulties.

The plane did a mapquest using the GFS and ended up in Bermuda!

[storms in NC]

AFM do you know what happened with recon? Seems to be some technical difficulties.

I think he is on the road to work.

[Bailey1777]

I'm actully kind of concerned for their safety just want to know if the crew is ok.

[mtm4319]

uh-oh. they called it "NE" Texas instead of "SE". I guess Lufkin can expect to see some hurricane force winds next week!

They obviously mean the most NE part of the Texas coast. We see this geographical shorthand (and error) every hurricane season. The NE coast is obviously SE Texas.

Wish they'd stop doing it, but they never do.

All of the coast is southeast Texas. That's why they can't name any part of the coast as such. The intended audience knows what they mean anyway.

[TSmith274]

I'm actully kind of concerned for their safety just want to know if the crew is ok.

Ditto.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm actully kind of concerned for their safety just want to know if the crew is ok.

Ditto.

Most likely it is technical issues/communication.

I'd likely wager that they are still out there taking observations.

[wxman57]

AFM do you know what happened with recon? Seems to be some technical difficulties.

The plane did a mapquest using the GFS and ended up in Bermuda!

Best post I"ve seen all day.

[Scorpion]

Deep convection once again forming.

[Bailey1777]

Hey WXMAN57 how far in advance do you have to make a call for the companies?

[rnbaida]

where are the recon reports?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like on the shear maps that the tutt is weaking, and 20 to 30 knot decreases where its moving into. The storm has 12 to 18 knots of shear over it.

[wxman57]

Hey WXMAN57 how far in advance do you have to make a call for the companies?

Depends what you mean. We alert them to the potential up to 10-14 days out. Conference calls with them started days ago with Ernesto.

[jlauderdal]

Hey WXMAN57 how far in advance do you have to make a call for the companies?

Depends what you mean. We alert them to the potential up to 10-14 days out. Conference calls with them started days ago with Ernesto.

is there a new conference call every 6 hours to talk about the modes flip flopping?

[ROCK]

Hey WXMAN57 how far in advance do you have to make a call for the companies?

Depends what you mean. We alert them to the potential up to 10-14 days out. Conference calls with them started days ago with Ernesto.

man, I wish I could be a fly on the wall during those calls.....

[Bailey1777]

I mean to vacate personell begin shutdown procedures on specific units ect.

[wxman57]

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I don't post much and I'm hardly a professional met but I do have a comment. I often see a global model run come out that shows a slightly different solution and it is summarily dismissed as crazy of impractical.
The 12z GFS run is a perfect example. I've heard mets on this board say it is impossible for Ernesto to cross over east central cuba. Why?
Sure the model might switch back to the west and then the solution can be dismissed as an anomaly, but it also may be part of a trend that will reveal itself with more global model runs. This has already happened with Ernesto as the consensus has shifted east.