TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

Rainband · #281 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:24 pm

Hd Viper on Fox 13 with Paul Delegato shows the same thing the SC station did. Landfall near Tampa and then up to the Carolinas. If this thing even regenerates. This is a mind boggling storm to say the least. He said he expects the NHC to shift west as the models did.

cpdaman · #282 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:24 pm

miami is at 80.2 west just slightly west and about 60 miles south of west palm beach

BOPPA · #283 Postby **BOPPA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:28 pm

"Rainband"Hd Viper on Fox 13 with Paul Delegato shows the same thing the SC station did. Landfall near Tampa and then up to the Carolinas. If this thing even regenerates. This is a mind boggling storm to say the least. He said he expects the NHC to shift west as the models did.

Rainband - Am I really really tired, or am I reading this correclty ???
Landfall near Tampa ???

sea oat · #284 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:28 pm

tronbunny wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:yep, the hype over this storm is slowly dying down over the tv channels, thank god . Aside from heavy rain, that should be about it....Hopefully it will move quick enough and the convection will die down to prevent any flooding type rains.

Honestly, I will be very disappointed if Ernie turns into a non-event for FL.
We can use the rain, here.
Just don't like those nasty winds and tornadoes.

be careful for what you wish for. even a tropical storm can wreak havoc:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/hgx/projects/allison01.htm

Sanibel · #285 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:29 pm

Keep watching BOPPA. I never ruled out Ft Myers with the track this was taking.

More west = more us.

#286 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:29 pm

Rainband wrote:Hd Viper on Fox 13 with Paul Delegato shows the same thing the SC station did. Landfall near Tampa and then up to the Carolinas. If this thing even regenerates. This is a mind boggling storm to say the least. He said he expects the NHC to shift west as the models did.

Just saw that also Rainband. It appears that Ernesto may track alot closer to the West Coast than first thought. Looks like a very wet & windy Wednesday/Thursday. We could use the rain here that ifs for sure.

Robert

BOPPA · #287 Postby **BOPPA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 pm

I know that is what you have said Sanibel, and believe me - I am watching -
I listen to you....... I had not heard the statement about Tampa though - was
a little of a shock !?!?!

I will keep watching for your posts and thanks.

#288 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 pm

Here's a good look at a water vapor loop of the US and the Gulf/W. Atlantic.
The high pressure north of Ernesto seems to be holding pretty strong.
Does it look like the front coming out of the middle of the US is flattening out a little bit and not dipping as far south as originally forecast?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

bucman1 · #289 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 pm

Can someone please give me the spaghetti(MODEL) link again

tHANK YOU

#290 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:33 pm

sea oat wrote:
tronbunny wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:yep, the hype over this storm is slowly dying down over the tv channels, thank god . Aside from heavy rain, that should be about it....Hopefully it will move quick enough and the convection will die down to prevent any flooding type rains.

Honestly, I will be very disappointed if Ernie turns into a non-event for FL.
We can use the rain, here.
Just don't like those nasty winds and tornadoes.

be careful for what you wish for. even a tropical storm can wreak havoc:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/hgx/projects/allison01.htm

You are correct sea oat, (may I also offer up Gordon of 2004?)
but the models currently offer us some decent rain in areas of florida that are suffering an unusually dry 'wet' season.
Although the amount of precipitable moisture is not assured, it does not appear to be in the range of deadly for the predictable tracks.
Like I said.. it would be wonderful if intensity were as easy to pin down, then we could all go rest, stop thinking about plywood.

bucman1 · #291 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:33 pm

Did the vipir give intensity?

#292 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:34 pm

bucman1 wrote:Can someone please give me the spaghetti(MODEL) link again

tHANK YOU

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

bucman1 · #293 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:36 pm

Thank you Tampa.

PTPatrick · #294 Postby **PTPatrick** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:37 pm

Oz NAM keeps this over S FL from tomorrow night until Thursday morning...at 6 Am thursday just off Miami. THat is at least 30 hours of stall time over Monroe and dade counties

#295 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:38 pm

PT, do you have a good link to that? I'd be very interested in seeing that one....

Wx_Warrior · #296 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:38 pm

WOW.....downpours and floods...not good.

#297 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:38 pm

isn't NAM one of the least reliable models though? Where does NAM currently have Ernie at?

PTPatrick · #298 Postby **PTPatrick** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:38 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

skufful · #299 Postby **skufful** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:39 pm

TampaFl wrote:
bucman1 wrote:Can someone please give me the spaghetti(MODEL) link again

tHANK YOU

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Although, almost all of the models have this thing coming right over me, there can't be anything left after the trek over Fla., right ?

PTPatrick · #300 Postby **PTPatrick** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:40 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

Who is online