TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Cookiely]

Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

This is from a person who can get lost inside a box and has no sense of direction but I would say its headed into the gulf of mexico. It certainly doesn't look like it has much of a northern component yet.

[storms in NC]

Based on this steering map, it appears the trough is within 10 degrees latitude of Ernesto....so Ernesto should start moving north fairly soon:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

If that is true it will not be over land long but back into the Atlantic and up the east coast and go into somewhere between Ga SC line or SC and NC line?

[gatorcane]

not that broad anymore. You can see it here moving right at Marathon on a NW movement...soon to be NNW

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Starting to turn N/NW looking at Key West Radar.

[gatorcane]

heavy, heavy squalls are now moving ashore the upper Keys from Key Largo to Islamorada...

I'd like to see some wind reports there

[tampastorm]

not that broad anymore. You can see it here moving right at Marathon on a NW movement...soon to be NNW

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You get NW out of this radar?

[feederband]

Right now I give up I see 3 swrills..Don't know which one is the center....

[Recurve]

Not to get lost on geographical name trivia, but around Marathon is where I'd say "gulfside" takes over from bayside. A Key West resident said gulfside was really only key west, but being a newspaper reporter down here, I can tell you that the convention of the Keynoter in Marathon was to say an address is at "53rd Street, Gulf" (gulfside), while the newspaper in Tavernier says "bayside."

By the way, it's starting to boom and pour here. Very dark outside, little wind. So far I'm glad I left one shutter off.

Since it's a TS and not a well=formed cane, it's not surprising that it's a little unclear exactly how it's tracking.

[LanceW]

The shuttle is moving back to the launch pad because the E is going to be west of KSC, according to local news. Does that mean a west shift of the track?

[Recurve]

heavy, heavy squalls are now moving ashore the upper Keys from Key Largo to Islamorada...

I'd like to see some wind reports there

Very light. At least in my yard ATT.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

The water on the western/northern side of the keys is the Florida Bay, not the GOM.

But wouldn't you say that Florida Bay is on the Gulf Coast, just like Mobile Bay and Galveston Bay are on the Gulf Coast?

[feederband]

The shuttle is moving back to the launch pad because the E is going to be west of KSC, according to local news. Does that mean a west shift of the track?

Maybe they know something we don't know.?

[SouthFLTropics]

They were going to roll back the shuttle to the VAB as a precaution anyway. I believe that started @ around 5:00AM this morning.

[CronkPSU]

from the orlando sent E blog

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Has a markedly worse visible sattelite presentation.

[

[Solaris]

When you compare the Keys' C-Man station you'll see the strongest pressure fall is in Molasses Reef. So that's the direction it's currently goin

[LanceW]

They were going to roll back the shuttle to the VAB as a precaution anyway. I believe that started @ around 5:00AM this morning.

They stopped half way and it's on the way back to the launch pad now. Their reasoning is E will be west of KSC. Doesn't the current track take it off the coast close to KSC?

[SouthFLTropics]

from the orlando sent E blog

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7

Oh, say they have stopped the roll back to the VAB and are headed back to the launch pad. That is pretty big news. That tells me they aren't expecting much at KSC.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looking at WV there is also some dry air on the SW side hurting it. Very unimpressive system.

[Toadstool]

from the orlando sent E blog

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7

Yes, Brent mentioned that earlier... I'm sure that will be a controversial decision. Nice to leave those delicate heat tiles out in a tropical storm, though the mission is important and already delayed.