TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

#281 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:59 pm

Wonder if the fact that most of the concentrated convection is now to the west of the center is not pulling him a bit more westward?

HurricaneHunter914 · #282 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:02 pm

So Ernesto has now made landfall. Thank God it didn't hit as a stronger system. He will probably be a TD by the time he makes it to Central Florida.

#283 Postby **dcuevas** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:05 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Wonder if the fact that most of the concentrated convection is now to the west of the center is not pulling him a bit more westward?

Do you think he will strengthen or just die? Any one?

#284 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:05 pm

I've been through 12 pages and can't find the spaghetti model runs. Can someone post a a site I can go to, thanks in advance.

#285 Postby **seahawkjd** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:05 pm

well its not going to weaken much if at all over Florida. There's not too much room for it to weaken lol. I still want to know though why TWC keeps saying its going to possibly be a hybrid system once it comes off of Florida.

krisj · #286 Postby **krisj** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:05 pm

seahawkjd wrote:I keep hearing Dr. lyons on TWC talking about the system basically becoming a hybrid before it hits SC/NC. He's the only one i hear saying this. Any perspective on this and what it would mean?

What would a hybrid be? I'd like to know too.

#287 Postby **Toadstool** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:07 pm

tailgater wrote:I've been through 12 pages and can't find the spaghetti model runs. Can someone post a a site I can go to, thanks in advance.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

#288 Postby **dcuevas** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:07 pm

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

#289 Postby **DelrayMorris** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:09 pm

krisj wrote:
What would a hybrid be? I'd like to know too.

hybrid, or subtropical, system that combined features of both tropical storms and extratropical or mid-latitude storms, such as common northeasters.

Does that help any? I guess they expect it to lose some of it's tropical characteristics.

#290 Postby **CronkPSU** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:09 pm

seahawkjd wrote:I keep hearing Dr. lyons on TWC talking about the system basically becoming a hybrid before it hits SC/NC. He's the only one i hear saying this. Any perspective on this and what it would mean?

to be honest i thought it started looking like a hybrid around 2 today but i was scared people would call me crazy

#291 Postby **Toadstool** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:11 pm

dcuevas wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Wonder if the fact that most of the concentrated convection is now to the west of the center is not pulling him a bit more westward?

Do you think he will strengthen or just die? Any one?

The GFDL has it strengthening towards the Carolinas...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

wxwonder12 · #292 Postby **wxwonder12** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:12 pm

what is the forward speed of Ernesto now??

#293 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:25 pm

in the last frame did ernesto go due west or just SOUTH of west?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

#294 Postby **CronkPSU** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:29 pm

looks like it went west but does it really matter at this point unless it keeps going into the EGOM...the whole structure looks like it has collapsed

#295 Postby **CronkPSU** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:29 pm

wxwonder12 wrote:what is the forward speed of Ernesto now??

8 PM said 12 mph...looks about the same for the 11 update

krisj · #296 Postby **krisj** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:38 pm

DelrayMorris wrote:
krisj wrote:
What would a hybrid be? I'd like to know too.

hybrid, or subtropical, system that combined features of both tropical storms and extratropical or mid-latitude storms, such as common northeasters.

Does that help any? I guess they expect it to lose some of it's tropical characteristics.

Thanks. I understand now.

Ixolib · #297 Postby **Ixolib** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:41 pm

fact789 wrote:in the last frame did ernesto go due west or just SOUTH of west?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks kinda west to me on this one too (AMX & BYX radars)...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

#298 Postby **THead** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:45 pm

Ixolib wrote:
fact789 wrote:in the last frame did ernesto go due west or just SOUTH of west?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks kinda west to me on this one too (AMX & BYX radars)...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

I dunno, looks like the COC is just south of the OCR label and just east of the purple line on this loop, and still headed NW or NNW.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

jenmrk · #299 Postby **jenmrk** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:50 pm

OK... question?
We have all watched Ernesto meander around at his own leisure, what happens if the turn to the north does not initialize and he ends up in the GOM, where do would we go from there?

#300 Postby **CronkPSU** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:51 pm

hmmm the center is on that one radar is in a totally different place than i was looking at on the NHC radar

TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

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