TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Eyewall]

I'm concerned with the fact that this thing is so large
Floyd was similar and it took a front right on top of it to make it turn
this front is not supposed to be as strong as the one that turned Floyd and this Flo could be as large and as strong as Floyd

[SouthFloridawx]

Ronjon thank you.

SFW, the 500 mb loop from the latest GFS - the model predicts weakness in the atlantic ridge which allows the storm to gain enough latitude to be captured by the trough swinging eastward from the Great Lakes in 4-5 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at the WV imagery I see what looks like a new shortwave starting to come down.

Let me know if I basically got this right.


Currently there there is a trough sitting along the East Coast of the US, as seen below.
http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php

Basically as I see it... You can currently the developing shortwave near the great lakes.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html
As the shortwave strengthens it is expected to amplify the trough along the east coast thus weakening the western flank of the ridge and allow Florence to move out to sea.

Is this an appropriate synopsis of the situation?

[Bailey1777]

When I said Stratosphere747 sent me the link to Tip it was in response to a question I asked him, not a comparison or in reference to Flo.

[sprink52]

I sure hope to hell these models verify. I keep having this nightmare of Max Mayfield on TV saying "very dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Florence has not made the northerly turn that we anticipated...so we're issuing a hurricane warning for the east coast of Florida from Key Largo to Sebastion Inlet" " y'all know this is not an exact science...especially 5~7 days out.." :roll:

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southfloridawx has it right, this is going to recurve. He got it right...In this will not hit Florida. Also this is not even a organized cyclone at all why worrie about something that is not yet happen?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ronjon thank you.

SFW, the 500 mb loop from the latest GFS - the model predicts weakness in the atlantic ridge which allows the storm to gain enough latitude to be captured by the trough swinging eastward from the Great Lakes in 4-5 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at the WV imagery I see what looks like a new shortwave starting to come down.

Let me know if I basically got this right.


Currently there there is a trough sitting along the East Coast of the US, as seen below.
http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php

Basically as I see it... You can currently the developing shortwave near the great lakes.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html
As the shortwave strengthens it is expected to amplify the trough along the east coast thus weakening the western flank of the ridge and allow Florence to move out to sea.

Is this an appropriate synopsis of the situation?

Thats what I see. The one thing that bugs me is that we are still talking 5 days out. We'll have to see if Florence's speed does what it is forecast to do.

[SouthFloridawx]

Southfloridawx has it right, this is going to recurve. He got it right...In this will not hit Florida. Also this is not even a organized cyclone at all why worrie about something that is not yet happen?

This was not a forecast... Just trying to understand the synoptics.

[StormWarning1]

I sure hope to hell these models verify. I keep having this nightmare of Max Mayfield on TV saying "very dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Florence has not made the northerly turn that we anticipated...so we're issuing a hurricane warning for the east coast of Florida from Key Largo to Sebastion Inlet" " y'all know this is not an exact science...especially 5~7 days out.." :roll:

This is a cat 5 fear mongering post.

Give it a rest.

[Josephine96]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

[LAwxrgal]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

After the last two years everybody is on edge. We saw how difficult Ernesto was to forecast. You just never know with these things. For what we know, Florence could do as the NHC thinks and be a good girl and turn out to sea and not hurt anybody. However, like I said in another thread, the best thing anybody can do, especially when there's a storm out there, is be prepared to take action if it's necessary.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My wind forecast
For Trout,Cay,Gold fish,Salmon,Angel fish,Whale Florence.

I think a track to the west-northwest for the next 12 to 24 hours is likely...Then a front off the east coast(92L)should pick it up to the northwest through 24 to 60 hours...Finally a reinfocement of energy form the midwest should turn it northward.

I think the enviroment doe's not get very faverable. In fact for the next 12 to 24 hours nothing much should change. Then we will have to watch the set up. But in this year of 2006, I don't dare forecast a major.

Now 40 knots
6 45 knots
12 45 knots
24 50 knots
36 55 knots
48 60 knots
60 65 knots?
72 70 knots
84 75 knots
96 75 knots
108 70 knots
120 65 knots

Hears your fish!

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it possible that flaorence may become too large for the upper low to pick up? thatd be a scary thought

[Downdraft]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

This is NOT the place to exercise those fears. This is a place to post responsible information concerning what is happening NOW and what can happen in the short-term. Not every single storm is a CAT 5 headed for the mainland no matter how much you wish it was.

[Josephine96]

Granted.. You make a sound point.. But if someone has a bad dream.. no matter how ridiculous it may seem to some of us.. They should have the priviledge to speak up..

At the same time.. remember.. He didn't come out and say "A cat 5 is headed for Florida"..

I don't know why we're getting so hyped over a storm that probably will end up going out 2 sea..

[Stratusxpeye]

Flo is a fish. IMO. I think theres nothing for noone to worry about enless your on a ship. Possibly bermuda could have some breezy rainy effects maybe they can catch some extra rain to use as water IMO no US threat and I highly doubt this will be a major even if it hit or did not hit the US.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Joephine96 I agree...This will very likely go out to sea, I see no reason to get hyped yet.

[Steve H.]

Actually the NHC is the responsible place. This is a weather forum where people make their own speculation and some make forecasts on their own. Do not come here if you want purely "official" forecasts.

[Josephine96]

If we wake up on Sunday or Monday and a curve hasn't showed signs of occuring yet.. then maybe slightly put the guard up.. but not now..

[cpdaman]

matt i think u are right about the intensity

this thing may never see a favorable enviornment

the nhc discussion says the ull low is moving slowly to the west and thus the shear should relax WELL duh florence is moving slowly to the wnw and is staying on pace (at least ) with the shear

i predict a large weak fish (bermuda will be fish food) althoug i think it will only be about 70 mph