TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Pebbles]

It's like God is sweeping all the strength out of all the storms this year almost.

And if that's the case.. I am sure there are no complaints from many, and even many thank yous for hearing our prayers going out.

[Sanibel]

Back into a poorly organized linear shape.

I just can't analyze anything into hurricane this year. Just like Ernesto.

I still say when it turns north it will organize and go hurricane. - But from this behavior it could stay a low category.

2006 continues to defy recent storm behavior.

[Thunder44]

When the plane comes in tonight, we will know what the strength of this system really is and the structure. I see some are really starting to lose patience with this season. I'd hate to see how some would act in some much less active years than this one.

[cycloneye]

If this 5 PM track verifies,then even the extreme eastern part of Canada will not see the center move thru.It has the center passing east of Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the 45kt estimates of the past couple days were overestimated? The post-storm report will give us a better idea.

I've found T3.6 and T3.9 just now...

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2006 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 23:30:42 N Lon : 60:14:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.5mb/ 51.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9

[Thunder44]

Avila said the Dvorak estimates where at 45kts, but they have been at 50 to 55kts

[Derek Ortt]

that track is right of some of the reliable guidance when it approaches Canada

[CrazyC83]

Avila said the Dvorak estimates where at 45kts, but they have been at 50 to 55kts

That is correct. I am just analysing the satellite to determine whether to estimate the intensity at 50kt, 55kt or 60kt.

[Derek Ortt]

the average Dvorak estimate is 45KT

The Airforce is at 35KT
TAFB is at 45KT
SSD is at 55KT

Thus, 45KT is the appropriate intensity and Avila is correct

And this is nowhere near 60KT in intensity right now

[Thunder44]

the average Dvorak estimate is 45KT

The Airforce is at 35KT
TAFB is at 45KT
SSD is at 55KT

Thus, 45KT is the appropriate intensity and Avila is correct

And this is nowhere near 60KT in intensity right now

Are you telling me that the Air Force and TAFB use their Dvorark technique for the satellite estimates as well?

[Derek Ortt]

its the same Dvorak technique, but different mets get different numbers

Usually, the three agencies are within 1 T number of each other, which is the case here and the mean T number is often used as the CI. The differences are largely due to differences in center position

[Derek Ortt]

also, dont use any objective method until an eye is present. You can get some mighty strange numbers otherwise (I have at HRD ran the objective DT and have had T 3.5+ on tropical waves)

[CrazyC83]

What site can I find the T-numbers?

I can only find one of them - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html - showing T3.4 - 53kt / 995mb.

[Derek Ortt]

sometimes the AF is posted here... not sure if the TAFB one is on a public http site or not

[senorpepr]

USAF's estimate


TPNT KGWC 081820
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 08/1731Z (74)
C. 23.0N/5
D. 59.0W/4
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS -08/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING AN UNREPRESENTATIVE
DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON PT. MET AGREES.

AODT: T4.3 (ECCR)

CRUZ

[wxman57]

Outflow is looking good in all quadrants now. Banding is improving. Inflow/convergence into the center is very good. All systems look go for a fairly rapid strengthening phase. The limiting factor now may be time. Once it approaches Bermuda, it should be near or past peak intensity. Could easily become a Cat 2 hurricane before then, perhaps a Cat 3. I think that it could be near hurricane strength as early as tomorrow evening and Cat 2-3 Sunday noon. Wouldn't be surprised if a nice eye pops out by Sunday morning.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite imagery indicates that the system is becoming much better organized. There is a burst that is about to explode to the south and east of the center. Meanwhile, the convection to the southwest is circling around the southern periphery, finally, which should dissipate any low humidity values in that area. This could possibly be close to hurricane intensity (65 mph) by the time the Air Force Recon reaches the system tonight.

Bermuda watch out...

[Nimbus]

Florence is a night girl. Peak convection has been dropping off in the mornings. maybe tonight will be the night she really starts spinning up.

[huricanwatcher]

Keep waiting to hear OH NO..... shes not turning north, missed the ridge....... only reason cause how MESSED UP this season has been and the unbelieveable things storms have been doing...

[WindRunner]

What site can I find the T-numbers?

I can only find one of them - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html - showing T3.4 - 53kt / 995mb.

Yes, and I'm not sure if you know of the SSD page here. If not, there you go.

AF estimates are available from here.

And one last comment - note the CIMSS ADT is only 3.4 because of constraints - the raw T# is a 4.1, adjusted a 3.7, so that's around 60kts or so. However, nothing major will be done base on Dvorak with recon flying in tonight - maybe an upgrade to 50kts, but I would be highly surprised at anything more.