Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
bjackrian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 156
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:41 pm
Location: Denver, CO

#281 Postby bjackrian » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:53 pm

I don't know for sure, but UKMET is the common name of the British Meterology Office.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
Location: ATLANTA

#282 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:54 pm

112.4kt


That is 128mph....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#283 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:01 pm

The UKMET is not a bad model. It has done a good job in the past.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#284 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:03 pm

storms in NC wrote:The UKMET is not a bad model. It has done a good job in the past.


and thats what i am afraid of.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Pebbles
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1994
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)

#285 Postby Pebbles » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:05 pm

So now I'm thinking it's time to start having a serious discussion on what kind of impacts 95L could have on the front/Helene. I am seriously starting to think this is probably what is causing the split in the models. Is my thinking off on this? More experience amatures & pro's want to chime in on this?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38100
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#286 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:08 pm

storms in NC wrote:The UKMET is not a bad model. It has done a good job in the past.


But the GFDL is VERY good usually, even better than the UKMET.

I still say this is a fish.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#287 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:13 pm

i still see a WNW track with North and South wobbles, but then again, thats just me! lol.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
trugunz
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 4:14 pm

#288 Postby trugunz » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:19 pm

BERMUDA REALLY NEEDS TO WATCH THIS:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#289 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:20 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#290 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:26 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html


These are statistical over estimates and is bascially done with every satellite image that comes in. I would take about 1.0 T-number away, unless the average Dvorak estimates from the other agnecies have a T-number close to it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
Location: ATLANTA

#291 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:38 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.0mb/115.0kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#292 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:40 pm

T# supports Cat 4, yet the NHC still says its a Cat 2.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
Location: ATLANTA

#293 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:42 pm

Scorpion wrote:T# supports Cat 4, yet the NHC still says its a Cat 2.


They need to send a recon in there! We cant keep guessing the intensity.... :x
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#294 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:43 pm

They did
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
Location: ATLANTA

#295 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:45 pm

storms in NC wrote:They did
they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#296 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:45 pm

bjackrian wrote:I don't know for sure, but UKMET is the common name of the British Meterology Office.


If I was feeling very picky I would say Met Office is actually abbreviated as the UKMO, but their global model is referred to as the UKMET. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#297 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:51 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:
storms in NC wrote:They did
they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....


When the plane was in they found the storm weaker than does estimates, which where showing the storm at 5.7 which equals 107kts, and they have been rising since then. So we know enough that these numbers are probably over estimates.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4825
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

#298 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:56 pm

18Z NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#299 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:58 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Strange thing about Helene is that all of the heaviest convection is on the west and NW side of the circulation, instead of the usual NE and East side. With that in mind, how many times have we seen a storm get pulled more toward the direction in which the heaviest convection lies?

Does anyone have any idea why Helene's convection remains heaviest on the NW quadrant?


Very astute observation. I agree.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#300 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:02 pm

When it blows its stack and clears the eye you'll see top potential.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cdenton12, dl20415, JaviT, JtSmarts, Steve H., StormWeather, zzzh and 59 guests