Akash and Gonu thread

[Nimbus]

13.4 million barrels of oil per day pass through the strait of Hormuz.

If the ships get delayed for 4 days can they make it up in the following weeks or is the shipping schedule through the strait that tight?

[AZRainman]

13.4 million barrels of oil per day pass through the strait of Hormuz.

If the ships get delayed for 4 days can they make it up in the following weeks or is the shipping schedule through the strait that tight?

How would they make it up? Tankers are always filled to capacity and all are in use unless a cyclone is blocking the way.

Note: 10mbd moves thru the Persian Gulf, and nothing is moving with Gonu in the way. Those loses can't be made up, since there are no extra standby tankers for emergency supply disruptions and you can't double up tanker capacity the week afterwards to make up for it.

[AJC3]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 041800.GIF

The CIRA RAMMB page shows Gonu is moving from an area of higher to lower oceanic heat content. May be playing at least some role as the shear profile still looks quite favorable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m5shr.html

[curtadams]

The track is not currently projected to affect any cities. Oman's population is small and that region of the Iranian coast has no cities (it's a desert). The largest town in Oman has only 15,000 people (and is now away from the direct path). The largest town on that region of the Iranian coast, Jask, has only 1000 people according to my Hammond atlas. Iran's oil production is mostly far from the affected area, more toward the Persian Gulf (Warning: big PDF). The big Iranian oil port in Bandar Abbas is on the other side of the straits (the most narrow part) and at the very edge of the current cone. The Omani oil port is looking less threatened than earlier today although their LNG port is still fairly close to the track. If these facilities were in the GOM I'd expect them to be able to take it. Since they're in an area that hasn't seen serious tropical storms for over a century (the worst Oman has seen was 40 mph) there's still some possibility they're more vulnerable to weather and will take serious damage. We'll know in a few days.

I've seen some claims of emergency offloading of tankers in the area but not seen any links. Is there some support for this or is it just a rumor?

[wxman57]

It's satellite presentation is much poorer than yesterday. The eye has filled and the eyewall doesn't look like it's complete. Don't know about 135 kts as per the current estimate. No recon there, so it's a guess as to how strong it is.

[curtadams]

13.4 million barrels of oil per day pass through the strait of Hormuz.

If the ships get delayed for 4 days can they make it up in the following weeks or is the shipping schedule through the strait that tight?

How would they make it up? Tankers are always filled to capacity and all are in use unless a cyclone is blocking the way.

Tankers don't always run at capacity. There's spare capacity. More than usual lately, because all the Middle Eastern countries have been cutting exports due to peaking fields, increasing domestic consumption, and the resistance in Iraq.

[WindRunner]

The track is not currently projected to affect any cities. Oman's population is small and that region of the Iranian coast has no cities (it's a desert). The largest town in Oman has only 15,000 people (and is now away from the direct path). The largest town on that region of the Iranian coast, Jask, has only 1000 people according to my Hammond atlas. Iran's oil production is mostly far from the affected area, more toward the Persian Gulf (Warning: big PDF). The big Iranian oil port in Bandar Abbas is on the other side of the straits (the most narrow part) and at the very edge of the current cone. The Omani oil port is looking less threatened than earlier today although their LNG port is still fairly close to the track. If these facilities were in the GOM I'd expect them to be able to take it. Since they're in an area that hasn't seen serious tropical storms for over a century (the worst Oman has seen was 40 mph) there's still some possibility they're more vulnerable to weather and will take serious damage. We'll know in a few days.

I've seen some claims of emergency offloading of tankers in the area but not seen any links. Is there some support for this or is it just a rumor?

Actually, Muscat has about 600,000 people link to WP, and it could see moderate to strong TS winds if the track verifies, as Gonu should be around 85kts 1-min at the CPA to Muscat. Definately not an easy going for a city not used to (rain)storms . . .

[Chacor]

TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 5TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF 4TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 20.50N AND LONG 63.50E, ABOUT 600 KMS SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).

CURRENT INTENSITY T6.0 RPT T6.0 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE “EYE” WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 115 KTS GUSTING 140KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE COAST OF OMAN BY FORENOON OF 6TH JUNE 2007. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[btangy]

Western semicircle is definitely starting to erode as the circulation begins to pull in dry air off the desert. 00Z sounding from Muscat indicates a >20C dewpoint depression at 850mb. As Gonu gets closer to the coast, the fetch over water will shorten and it'll be harder for Gonu to maintain all that deep convection. The air gets even drier above 500mb, although that's not as important without any appreciable wind shear to push that into the core.

One interesting thing to watch, as one of colleagues pointed out earlier today, is that once this gets over land whether it turns into a monsoon low or 'landphoon' which you sometimes observe over the interior of Australia, where the land is so hot that it in effect continues to fuel a tropical storm strength circulation. Not saying that this will happen, but it's something to watch out for.

[Chacor]

One interesting thing to watch, as one of colleagues pointed out earlier today, is that once this gets over land whether it turns into a monsoon low or 'landphoon' which you sometimes observe over the interior of Australia, where the land is so hot that it in effect continues to fuel a tropical storm strength circulation. Not saying that this will happen, but it's something to watch out for.

The last major cyclone over Muscat was a monsoon cyclone. It killed almost 700.

[mempho]

Any chance that it briefly strengthens and emerges from an ERC? Or is this going to go into complete collapse mode starting now?

[Chacor]

Any chance that it briefly strengthens and emerges from an ERC? Or is this going to go into complete collapse mode starting now?

With the dry air and land interaction probably no more strengthening. Hopefully no more strengthening.

[AZRainman]

Tankers don't always run at capacity. There's spare capacity. More than usual lately, because all the Middle Eastern countries have been cutting exports due to peaking fields, increasing domestic consumption, and the resistance in Iraq.

Wrong, there's almost zero spare tanker capacity, a soaring crude demand, a booming shipping industry, and the recent 3% market price spike confirms it. That and the UN has ordered all single hauled tankers to be banned by 2010 and thus many are being scrapped now. So you can pretend all you desire, but I am taking advantage of the supply shortages that are coming.

Got Oil? Now, Try to Find Tankers to Carry It
Oil tanker shortage looms as UN sets ban

Watch NYMex futures really jump when Gonu goes mainstream...

The Energy Boom Is Just Starting Barron's

Tapis just opened and jumped $2+ to $75.95
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on satellite and 85h data we do have, I would say between 115-120 knots. The system still has very good shape, we will just have to see if it can fight the dry air. In try to hold together.

[Chacor]

Down to high-end Cat 4, 135 kt...

WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.5N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.7N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.3N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.4N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 02A HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND NOW HAS A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
140 KNOTS BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE
AND SLIGHT WEAKENING OF SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. THE 05/00Z 500MB UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS. TC 02A IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ASIA WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA HAS
STARTED TO SHIFT EAST AND IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD TURN AND
ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST IRAN NEAR TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARDS
WITH GFDN, NGPS AND WBAR INDICATING A SHARP POLEWARD TURN AND A
STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND EGRR SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND STEERING AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AIDS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

What is the storm surge potential up there?

[MGC]

TC's and dry air don't mix well. I would expect rapid weakening as the cyclone approaches land. It will be lucky to reach the beach as a cat-1......MGC

[AZRainman]

Stratfor aka the shadow CIA has an article up:

Category 5 Cyclone Aimed at Strait of Hormuz

More likely is shipping disruption. Right now, Gonu is on a collision course with the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint that transits some 17 million bpd of crude. Within the next few hours, the tankers and supertankers -- not to mention the massive container ships that often visit regional hubs in the United Arab Emirates -- that ply that route will be scurrying out of the storm's way. In the Gulf of Mexico, such storm-dodging is an annual ritual that is no major concern, but in the world's "Cradle of Oil," this is a completely new sport, and even a short disruption with minimal damage is sure to send the price of a barrel of crude sharply upward.

Meanwhile the UAE says go back to bed:

No cyclone warning for UAE
Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates

[curtadams]

Tankers don't always run at capacity. There's spare capacity. More than usual lately, because all the Middle Eastern countries have been cutting exports due to peaking fields, increasing domestic consumption, and the resistance in Iraq.

Wrong, there's almost zero spare tanker capacity, a soaring crude demand, a booming shipping industry, and the recent 3% market price spike confirms it. That and the UN has ordered all single hauled tankers to be banned by 2010 and thus many are being scrapped now. So you can pretend all you desire, but I am taking advantage of the supply shortages that are coming.

Got Oil? Now, Try to Find Tankers to Carry It
Oil tanker shortage looms as UN sets ban

Watch NYMex futures really jump when Gonu goes mainstream...

The Energy Boom Is Just Starting Barron's

Tapis just opened and jumped $2+ to $75.95
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

You've got some old stats there:

Rates are likely to rise even further if Saudi Arabia steps up its production as much as Saudi officials say it could - by 1 million barrels a day, to about 10 million. Experts say much of that new oil may back up in storage tanks in Saudi Arabia waiting for scarce tanker space.

That's from 2004. Well, it's 2007, and instead of shipping more, SA is shipping less, 8.5 million, so there's 1.5 m/day already. Iraq is down 0.5 m/day from the occupation, and Iran is down too. There's lots of extra capacity.
Prices are rising because oil production is peaking. The key element at the moment is that Ghawar, Saudi Arabia's crown jewel, has apparently joined Mexico's Cantarell in the rapid decline list. Production is limiting, not shipping. Now short-term, yes, blocking the Straits for a couple days will send prices up. But only in the short term, assuming no port damage.

[mempho]

What is the storm surge potential up there?