SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

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tomboudreau
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#281 Postby tomboudreau » Wed May 09, 2007 7:21 am

HURAKAN wrote:
tomboudreau wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
punkyg wrote:Will this be the earliest storm in may. if it develope.


Arlene, 1981: Formed on the 7th of May.

An storm in 1932 formed on the 5th of May.

If Andrea forms today, it will be the third earliest storm in May.


Don't forget that Ana formed in April of 2003 as a STS and then converted fully over to a full blown TS.


We're talking about storms in May!!!! Not April.


I thought they asked if this was the earliest storm ever...sorry...I'll just go back into my hole then and stay there until its safe to come out.
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#282 Postby feederband » Wed May 09, 2007 7:22 am

tomboudreau wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
tomboudreau wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
punkyg wrote:Will this be the earliest storm in may. if it develope.


Arlene, 1981: Formed on the 7th of May.

An storm in 1932 formed on the 5th of May.

If Andrea forms today, it will be the third earliest storm in May.


Don't forget that Ana formed in April of 2003 as a STS and then converted fully over to a full blown TS.


We're talking about storms in May!!!! Not April.


I thought they asked if this was the earliest storm ever...sorry...I'll just go back into my hole then and stay there until its safe to come out.


I have a spare cave if you need it... :wink:
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#283 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 7:23 am

tomboudreau wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
tomboudreau wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
punkyg wrote:Will this be the earliest storm in may. if it develope.


Arlene, 1981: Formed on the 7th of May.

An storm in 1932 formed on the 5th of May.

If Andrea forms today, it will be the third earliest storm in May.


Don't forget that Ana formed in April of 2003 as a STS and then converted fully over to a full blown TS.


We're talking about storms in May!!!! Not April.


I thought they asked if this was the earliest storm ever...sorry...I'll just go back into my hole then and stay there until its safe to come out.


The earliest was the Subtropical storm that formed on January 18, 1978.
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#284 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 09, 2007 7:29 am

Image

I wonder how much confidence they have in the GFDL?

Slowly she is beginning to respond to the warmer SST's.

The approach to the coastline may tighten up the circulation and provide some convection lift. Obviously a track like the GFDL would give her much more time to finish her transition to warm core.
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#285 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 7:29 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image


Image

Amending an error!!!
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#286 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed May 09, 2007 7:33 am

Nimbus wrote:Image

I wonder how much confidence they have in the GFDL?

Slowly she is beginning to respond to the warmer SST's.

The approach to the coastline may tighten up the circulation and provide some convection lift. Obviously a track like the GFDL would give her much more time to finish her transition to warm core.


I'm all for the GFDL scenario. One because the system doesn't landfall, two, Georgia and Florida both get much needed rain, three, 90L gets more of a chance to become our first named system. It a win-win for everyone!
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#287 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 7:35 am

Image

It's popping!!!
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#288 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 09, 2007 7:38 am

I'm all for the GFDL scenario. One because the system doesn't landfall, two, Georgia and Florida both get much needed rain, three, 90L gets more of a chance to become our first named system.


Maybe the people that program the GFDL model data are people I disagree with?
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#289 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 09, 2007 7:44 am

Is it just me or is this looking fully tropical?
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#290 Postby tracyswfla » Wed May 09, 2007 7:45 am

It does look tropical. Just bring on the rain!
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#291 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 7:51 am

1232 3137N 07657W 01676 0033 163 042 110 066 042 01744 0000000000
1232. 3139N 07658W 01676 0034 159 042 110 066 042 01744 0000000000

42 x .80 = 33.6 knots. Very close to tropical storm internsity.
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#292 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed May 09, 2007 7:53 am

Actually it doesn't look that warm core tropical at all. At this stage of a warm core TD you need a blow-up of convection over the center not a large hole void of convection. Unless we see development of convection in the center I don't think Recon finds much.
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#293 Postby Chacor » Wed May 09, 2007 7:58 am

06Z cyclonephase diagrams seem to suggest slightly more warm-core than 06Z yesterday, but still really borderline cold/warm core.
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#294 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed May 09, 2007 8:00 am

Yeah, that is why I think it will be subtropical. That hole is there because of tells a big story, that convection has not been able to develop there.
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#295 Postby skysummit » Wed May 09, 2007 8:05 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
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#296 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 09, 2007 8:08 am

Looks like Hello Andrea!
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#297 Postby punkyg » Wed May 09, 2007 8:11 am

:clap: Look at me i'm getting happy hope its name andrea. my mother just left for work and i'm leaving soon.
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#298 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed May 09, 2007 8:15 am

HURRICANE SEASON HAS BEGUN! HELLO ANDREA!
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
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#299 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed May 09, 2007 8:15 am

woooohooooo the season begins this morning!!! yippeee skipppyy! :lol:
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superfly

#300 Postby superfly » Wed May 09, 2007 8:15 am

Oh no wonder it was so windy this weekend when I was down in Myrtle Beach partying.
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