Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[Cyclenall]

And one from a few minutes ago. That bright white "blob" is well to the SSE of the LLC, which appears to be weakening.
*cut*

What are you talking about? It's doing the opposite, the flare-up on that image appears to be strengthening (we're talking about the same area right? It's SE of the low.). That image is also more up to date then the ones on the NRL site and the burst of convection is expanding a bit.

EDIT: Nevermind, I posted while wxman57 explained the flare-up.

[wjs3]

Two quesitons for you, Wxman57:

1) How do you analyze the surface center there? You must be using more than visible satellite, correct? Radar? My galnce at KMLB suggests the center (mid level, no doubt given range form the radar) center is NW of the new convection, but not quite that far.

2) Are we in the kind of situation where if the "new" convection persists, a new center could develop closer to/underneath it?

Thanks. Always look forward to your posts.

WJS3

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The convection is increasing right over the center. With good outflow overall quads, unless I'm lossing my eye sight.

[wjs3]

I do analyze a ton of convection to the SE of the center (not right over it), but after reading Wxman57's post, and relookingat visible imagery, he's right. This new batch of convection was kicked off by colliding outflow boundaries.

With this new set of convection you can once again see outflow firing out, especially to the south. This does not look like pressure-lowering, sustaining convection that a TC needs to develop. The "show" could continue, and I do think the NHC could very well choose to reclassify this (we've all seen weaker looking TDs!), but I don't think we are going to see much more tropical development.

Of course, last night I wrote Andrea off too.

WJS3

[wxman57]

Two quesitons for you, Wxman57:

1) How do you analyze the surface center there? You must be using more than visible satellite, correct? Radar? My galnce at KMLB suggests the center (mid level, no doubt given range form the radar) center is NW of the new convection, but not quite that far.

2) Are we in the kind of situation where if the "new" convection persists, a new center could develop closer to/underneath it?

Thanks. Always look forward to your posts.

WJS3

What's left of Andrea is inside the red circle on the image below, about 40 miles NW of the convection. I have surface obs plotted over a 1K satelllite image. The low-level swirl is almost gone now. The white blob to the south of the circle is the result of intersecting outflow boundaries. It won't persist.

If you're using radar, you might see how high you're looking on this radar beam calculator. I get a beam height of over 7000 ft at 70nm.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/bea ... width.html

I don't think there's much chance of the center reforming beneath the convection to the south. The convection won't hang around long enought o generate the inflow.

[wxman57]

The convection is increasing right over the center. With good outflow overall quads, unless I'm lossing my eye sight.

I don't think your eyesight is failing. You're just seeing what you want to see. Time to call it a day and head for home.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrea is not intensifying. Convection does not equal intensification all of the time, and this time, since the banding is weak, it is not the least bit iompressive at all.

Outside chance at redevelopment, but it will be slow

[Stratusxpeye]

just got about 100 sprinkles here from that tail end of the system draping through florida. And a bunch of thunder but that's it. Guess that's it for the week. Looking better for some rain on the coast from andrea though.

[wjs3]

Two quesitons for you, Wxman57:

1) How do you analyze the surface center there? You must be using more than visible satellite, correct? Radar? My galnce at KMLB suggests the center (mid level, no doubt given range form the radar) center is NW of the new convection, but not quite that far.

2) Are we in the kind of situation where if the "new" convection persists, a new center could develop closer to/underneath it?

Thanks. Always look forward to your posts.

WJS3

What's left of Andrea is inside the red circle on the image below, about 40 miles NW of the convection. I have surface obs plotted over a 1K satelllite image. The low-level swirl is almost gone now. The white blob to the south of the circle is the result of intersecting outflow boundaries. It won't persist.

If you're using radar, you might see how high you're looking on this radar beam calculator. I get a beam height of over 7000 ft at 70nm.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/bea ... width.html

I don't think there's much chance of the center reforming beneath the convection to the south. The convection won't hang around long enought o generate the inflow.

Yes, you posted that beam height calculator for me in the other forum. Thanks.

I agree with you as you can see from post above re: outflow intersection once I went back and looked at it. Also I saw new outflow from the new convection. That is, of course, an indication that pressures are not lowering under the new convection, hence unlikely center reformation. I kind of answered my own question.

Thanks

WJS3

[Blown Away]

The rain dance worked! Got a little rain in Hobe Sound from Andrea.



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

I think it is definitely tropical, but it lacks the low-level circulation at this point. I would classify it as a tropical low right now.

It definitely has a low-level circulation. It just that the thunderstorm aren't significant and organzied enough around the center.

Right on Thunder44. The low level circ is very clear. It's the thunderstorm organization that's the rub. I'm not sure what to make of this new batch of storms firing to the SE of the last batch.

WJS3

What would the classification be then? That sounds like a tropical depression...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry wxman57, I did not look at the latest satellite when I said that. I look like a fool. But the new burst of convection moving over the center looks good, also the system looks as tropical as ever. I still expect it as its being kicked out to see some good strengthing.

[wjs3]

I think it is definitely tropical, but it lacks the low-level circulation at this point. I would classify it as a tropical low right now.

It definitely has a low-level circulation. It just that the thunderstorm aren't significant and organzied enough around the center.

Right on Thunder44. The low level circ is very clear. It's the thunderstorm organization that's the rub. I'm not sure what to make of this new batch of storms firing to the SE of the last batch.

WJS3

What would the classification be then? That sounds like a tropical depression...

Just a tropical disturbance at this point, I would say.

WJS3

[NDG]

The low level circulation is still there, convection keeps firing near the center and shear over the system is almost gone for now, might be getting some mid level dry air influx from the NE but that's about it, and might add that the SST are only in the upper 70s. Chances of deeper convection firing up after midnight looks fairly good, IMO.

WV loop

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree NDG, I've seen a few storms as they are being kicked out bomb. AKA Charley,Alex, and more. We will see what this doe's. In no I don't expect it to do that any where close. But a strong tropcial storm is not out of the question.

[MiamiensisWx]

Radar organization has been slowly improving throughout the day. Take a look at the Melbourne NWS loop. Banding is well-defined in all quadrants and convective activity has increased. In addition, satellite signature indicates a mild warm core system. Wind reports across the Florida peninsula indicate a tight circulation and breezy conditions many miles away from the low-level circulation. See the latest visible loop. Click on all options to view the support for my opinion. Due to the persistent convective bursts, I believe the system has been a depression for at least five hours.

In addition, a circulation is now visible on water vapor imagery. Although wxman57 illustrates good points, I have to disagree with his views of the intensity of the system.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like an ill formed rain band over central florida forming.

[HurricaneBelle]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

[tgenius]

I'm hopin that rain makes it down to Miami.. the smoke has made the sun look hazy, was eerie driving home!

[NDG]

I agree NDG, I've seen a few storms as they are being kicked out bomb. AKA Charley,Alex, and more. We will see what this doe's. In no I don't expect it to do that any where close. But a strong tropcial storm is not out of the question.

Upper level shear should be very low near where she is for at least the next 24 hrs, she is falling right on the right spot between the ULL on the northern Gulfcoast and the departing upper level trough that was on top of her, with an upper level high bridging to the top of her from the Carolinas, the only thing that I see that would make her from re-entesifying is if she pulls away too far from the gulfstream away from the warmer waters into SST in the low to mid 70s.