Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[Aric Dunn]

although the 18z gfs is running off of some 12 z data .. it initialized the a 1009 mb low down there and so far has maintained it .. unlike earlier runs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

just meaning something to watch .. because although we are six days before the start of the season .... 6 days is not going to make a difference much .. beside we were watching allison in 1995
starting out out as a blob in the same area

also if your wondering if the shear in the NW carrib is going to lighten gfs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054m.gif

or here http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/ ... _shear.gif

[Opal storm]

Could be an interesting start to the season, or nothing could happen... who knows.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

(Capitalization of words done for emphasis, it does not
mean that I am yelling LOL)

If shear lessens...we could see a tropical depression

If shear DOES NOT lessen...NOTHING will form.

That's just my opinion.
There's a lot of moisture and low pressure,
but SHEAR IS THE BIG FACTOR HERE.

We gotta watch the shear folks.
That will determine what happens.

[windstorm99]

Shear is forcasted to slowly improve in parts of the western caribbean the next couple days.

['CaneFreak]

(Capitalization of words done for emphasis, it does not
mean that I am yelling LOL)

If shear lessens...we could see a tropical depression

If shear DOES NOT lessen...NOTHING will form.

That's just my opinion.
There's a lot of moisture and low pressure,
but SHEAR IS THE BIG FACTOR HERE.

We gotta watch the shear folks.
That will determine what happens.

Shear is at nil right now and as has been said is forecasted to improve....wow...all of a sudden a low pressure forms...this is crazy....keep a watch on it and see if it PERSISTS....PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY...

[ronjon]

NHC has it listed as an INVEST on their floater 3 listing. Question is, do we see an investigation from the NRL site soon? It is a 1009 mb low with convection - with model support, over SSTs that are what?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[windstorm99]

No confirmation from NRL of an invest named in the atlantic basin at this time.

Lets see if convection persists threw tonight.

['CaneFreak]

NHC has it listed as an INVEST on their floater 3 listing. Question is, do we see an investigation from the NRL site soon? It is a 1009 mb low with convection - with model support, over SSTs that are what?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

83 to 84 degrees or 29 C

[cycloneye]

Here is the infared image from Floater 3.

[Opal storm]

It actually looks invest-worthy this evening.

[ronjon]

I grabbed this from Tony Cristaldi (AJC3) at the Central Florida Hurricane Center site. Hope he doesn't mind me posting it here.

IMHO things are about to get very interesting for Florida. I touched upon it in my afternoon AFD, but I have a little time to expand on these thoughts, so here goes.

First thing to mention is that the pressures are usually fairly low in the western Caribbean, and today is no exception. I noticed some buoy/ship ops around 1010MB in that general area. Second, there are two well defined vortices in the CU field noticeable on vis imagery. The first is east of the Yucatan (18N 87W) and the second is east of Nicaragua (12.5n 80W). The one east of Nicaragua looks a little tigher and has more in the way of convection near the center, plus a huge slug of deep tropical moisture/convection to it's east.

What gets really interesting is the change in the synoptic pattern over the GOMEX over the next several days. If you'll allow me to cannibalize my own AFD...

XTD...AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE IN THE PAST...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECM AT H50...W/R/T BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...H50 HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE GOMEX FROM MID WEEK ONWARD...WHICH MAY BE A HARBINGER OF SOME FAIRLY DECENT CHCS FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

Adding onto that is the fact that the 12Z ECM continued to be much stronger at H50 and with the surface low coming up out of the Caribbean.

So, we have
(1) low pressure in the area
(2) a fairly healthy low level vortex already down there sitting and spinning
(3) a loose model consensus for "something" to form from the ECM/UKM and GFS (in spite of the return of it's horrible convective feedback problem and resultant low spin-up-o-rama)

This is where it gets interesting. Significant height falls at 500 MB will occur over the western GOMEX and gulf coast starting TUE, and responsible trough will work eastward toward Florida from mid to late next week.

Going back to my AFD, The ECM is deeper, so much that it looks like it's weakly cutoff at 500MB. The surface evolution looks a little strange in that the 500MB low actually captures the surface system coming out of the Caribbean. We wind up with a 1001MB low getting propelled northward into the FL panhandle.

On the other hand, the GFS takes the distinct southern stream 500MB feature eastward, but it gets captured and absorbed into the base of the northern stream trough, making it nearly full latitude. It's surface low, which looks like it's from convective feedback, forms farther east and turns more quicky across extreme SE Florida and then out to sea.

I have no strong opinion on which model to favor at this point, other than noting as I did in my AFD that the GFS has been following the ECM's lead up until now. I think there will be quite a bit of interest for Florida folks over the next several days.

Tony C.

edit: On more note - It's still only may and the ST Jet will stay pretty strong between 25 and 30N. That would argue for something not purely tropical, or a system morphing into a "sloppy, right-sided, hybrid, baroclincally enhanced thingamajiggy" (for lack of a better term)

[Nimbus]

The convection is displaced a little northeast from where the low level inflow seems to be curling in.

I notice on the navy long range shear model that a quiet area grows north over the Dominican Republic?

Navy shear model 12 frames

[Ivanhater]

Ok...looking at some close ups You can see some inflow coming into the system meaning we have convergence at the surface...good for development...

[Thunder44]

NHC has it listed as an INVEST on their floater 3 listing. Question is, do we see an investigation from the NRL site soon? It is a 1009 mb low with convection - with model support, over SSTs that are what?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

SSD is responsible for labeling those images not the NHC itself.

[ronjon]

Tropical cyclone intensity potential can't get much higher than in this region of the southern carribean.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS DOMINATE THE WRN CARIB. THE FIRST IS
BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 22N84W 14N86W THAT HAS A
1011 MB LOW ATTACHED NEAR 18.5N86.5W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NW CARIB N OF 16N W OF 82W. UW-CIMSS
SHEAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS 20-40KT OF WLY SHEAR OVER THIS
AREA...WHICH IS PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM GETTING VERY
DEEP. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT WITH THE
TROUGHING IN THE SW PORTION. THIS SECOND TROUGH IS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA ALONG 18N78W 9N82W. A 1009MB
SFC LOW IS ATTACHED NEAR 12N81W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE LOW IN THE NW PORTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS
THE YUCATAN WHILE THE LOW IN THE SW PORTION TO MOVE SLOWLY NE.
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN
70W-81W. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING SW FROM THE WRN ATLC AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIB. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html

8:05 PM EDT Discussion of the Caribbean area by TPC.

[windstorm99]

Deep convection is slowly abating might not be much left by tommorow morning if the present trend continues.

Also looks to be moving ESE.

[Weatherfreak000]

This current area of acitivity is nothing to be concerned about at the moment.


Give it another week in the W to SW Caribbean guys.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If shear lessens and enough moisture gathers...
A tropical system could form in the Caribbean over the
next 3-5 days. The moisture supports it, and if convection
persists through tomorrow along with the circulation and
moisture I see an invest by tomorrow afternoon, and possibly
a depression by Monday if the shear remains low.
IMO, Barry is not far away.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

Widespread intense convection

Shear forecasted to lessen, and moisture available
So tomorrow- Invest I think we see
Monday- Tropical Depression possible
Tuesday- Tropical Depression