wxman57 wrote:Thunder44 wrote:Coredesat wrote:I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:
01/2345 UTC 24.2N 85.1W TOO WEAK BARRY
Going back to the cyclone phase diagrams, this is what the latest model runs have initiated Barry as:
18Z GFS: asymmetric warm-core becoming frontal cold-core
18Z NAM: Doesn't pick it up. The NAM had this earlier today and last night. It has an asymmetric warm-core system forming in 18 hours off the coast of Florida.
18Z GFDL: Doesn't pick up the system, develops something over land in 24 hours
18Z UKMO: asymmetric warm-core
12Z CMC: symmetric warm-core
12Z NOGAPS: symmetric warm-core about to become asymmetric
Model forecasts and Sat estimates are irrelevant against surface obs and recon data.
Generally true, but Barry weakened very rapidly in the hour after recon left. So the satellite estimate may be quite valid. I think that Barry was a true TS for about 2 hours. It's nothing but a remnant low now, not very tropical any more.
My point is that he's basing his analysis that this has never been a tropical system, by using Dvorak, which has never showed this system have sustained winds of anything more than 20kts. I think that is just due to the satellite appearance of more of a extratropical system. Recon flew into system and found a warm core center, no fronts, and buoy and ship obs have shown max sustained winds of 35kt and higher, since this afternoon.
