Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aric Dunn]

Look at the image i posted and the one you just posted - they're identical!

yes i know they are now.. because the site you got that from just updated it.. but when you first put it up there it was 95L .. thats what im saying.. not now..

[WindRunner]

Guys, it's just a computer issue. Aric's computer probably still had the 95L image in its cache as he had probably gone and looked at the "frame 1" on the CSU page, where as philnyc hadn't. Hence, when Aric went to get the 96L image off the page, his computer updated it and "changed" philnyc's image for him. This is just the natural behavior of your browsers and no one is at fault.

[Aric Dunn]

Guys, it's just a computer issue. Aric's computer probably still had the 95L image in its cache as he had probably gone and looked at the "frame 1" on the CSU page, where as philnyc hadn't. Hence, when Aric went to get the 96L image off the page, his computer updated it and "changed" philnyc's image for him. This is just the natural behavior of your browsers and no one is at fault.

yeah .. something like.. that.. lol ...

anywho...

[wxman57]

New burst of convection close to the LLC...

Careful with assuming the LLC is near that red burst of convection - it's well north of there (maybe 60-80nm north)

[philnyc]

Look at the image i posted and the one you just posted - they're identical!

yes i know they are now.. because the site you got that from just updated it.. but when you first put it up there it was 95L .. thats what im saying.. not now..

That's what I suspected, Windrunner. Thanks for that explanation. And thanks Aric for looking out.

[Aric Dunn]

New burst of convection close to the LLC...

Careful with assuming the LLC is near that red burst of convection - it's well north of there (maybe 60-80nm north)

actaully i disagree.. its actaully at the northern edge of it... just watch the close up rgb



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[WindRunner]

QS in from 20 mins ago has unflagged 35kt vector, FWIW.



Higher resolution version has unflagged 35kt vectors on all sides with several to the south of the center at 50kts - supposedly unflagged, though I doubt that . . .

[Aric Dunn]

also the microwave images.. show it clearly .. very close to that small burst

[Aric Dunn]

QS in from 20 mins ago has unflagged 35kt vector, FWIW.



Higher resolution version has unflagged 35kt vectors on all sides with several to the south of the center at 50kts - supposedly unflagged, though I doubt that . . .

that has not changed all day. saw that earlier.. and its still the same.. even though the times changes the image is the same.. they are almost never updated.. on the page you go that on .. it says at the top images could be more than like some 20 hr old or something like that

"The images may contain data up to 22 hours previous from update time.
Details of orbit data files that go into the plots can be found here."

[WindRunner]

Good catch . . . the pass was actually 14 hours ago

[Aric Dunn]

if you notice its centered at 37W when its actaully passing 40 now


actually its coming up on 41 west..

[wxman57]

New burst of convection close to the LLC...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb.jpg

Careful with assuming the LLC is near that red burst of convection - it's well north of there (maybe 60-80nm north)

actaully i disagree.. its actaully at the northern edge of it... just watch the close up rgb

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/2972/avnmi5.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

It's always very difficult to locate an LLC for such a weak system with IR imagery, and it's particularly hard if your imagery lacks a high-res lat/long grid for continuity. I tracked the center to near 10.5N/40.2W as of 3pm CDT moving toward 280 deg at 10 kts. Even on your loop link you posted, I can clearly see the rotation in the visible shots well north of that red circle you made. Here's a sequence of imagery from around noon, 3pm, and 5pm CDT. You can clearly see the LLC near 10.4N/39.6W at 12:15pm cdt moving to 280 at 10 kts. By 2:45pm it was near 20.5N/40.2W. By 5:15pm it's near 10.65N/40.7 or 40.8W. The top edge of the convection is well southeast of this location, as I've indicated in the 3rd image below.

You just won't be able to pick out the LLC with IR imagery, so you need to extrapolate its location from visible imagery earlier this afternoon.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Le.jpg 12:15pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lf.jpg 2:45pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lg.jpg 5:15pm CDT

[Aric Dunn]

It's always very difficult to locate an LLC for such a weak system with IR imagery, and it's particularly hard if your imagery lacks a high-res lat/long grid for continuity. I tracked the center to near 10.5N/40.2W as of 3pm CDT moving toward 280 deg at 10 kts. Even on your loop link you posted, I can clearly see the rotation in the visible shots well north of that red circle you made. Here's a sequence of imagery from around noon, 3pm, and 5pm CDT. You can clearly see the LLC near 10.4N/39.6W at 12:15pm cdt moving to 280 at 10 kts. By 2:45pm it was near 20.5N/40.2W. By 5:15pm it's near 10.65N/40.7 or 40.8W. The top edge of the convection is well southeast of this location, as I've indicated in the 3rd image below.

You just won't be able to pick out the LLC with IR imagery, so you need to extrapolate its location from visible imagery earlier this afternoon.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Le.jpg 12:15pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lf.jpg 2:45pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lg.jpg 5:15pm CDT[/quote]

your last two are progressively off from your first one that was accurate... i assure you its where the red circle was..
and those ir images are less resolution than the NOAA images.. but hey we will see soon enough

[jaxfladude]

Come on, QUICKSCAT do not fail us now.....

[philnyc]

Wow, it's so hard to find the LLC of a storm like this. Although I like to try to fix it by satellite images as well, we all know only a very recent Quikscat or actual observations (plane or ship) can tell us for sure. The NHC itself often makes mistakes on this - it's one of the reasons why they don't give an advisory with a fix on the exact location until it's a depression. Another reason is multiple LLCs, sometimes two or three rotating about a common broader center, which I think was happening today. I saw, and see, both of the centers you guys are talking about. Which one it consolidates around, (if it does develop at all) is up for grabs right now.

[miamicanes177]

"]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Le.jpg 12:15pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lf.jpg 2:45pm CDT

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lg.jpg 5:15pm CDT

You almost have this taking a sharp turn to the NW between the 2:45 and 5:15 images. That is just way off. NHC on the 18Z models put this at 10.3N 39.8W and moving westward at 10-15mph. We'll get the official position when the 00Z models run.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, it's so hard to find the LLC of a storm like this. Although I like to try to fix it by satellite images as well, we all know only a very recent Quikscat or actual observations (plane or ship) can tell us for sure. The NHC itself often makes mistakes on this - it's one of the reasons why they don't give a fix on the exact location until it's a depression. Another reason is multiple LLCs, sometimes two or three rotating about a common broader center, which I think was happening today. I saw, and see, both of the centers you guys are talking about.

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day..

[cpdaman]

thank you for spelling that out Aric (the quikscat winds and how they are not up to date)

i tried in another thread (i think andrea) most people need to know the quikscat can be 22 hours old and usually is at least 6

[jrod]

The shortwave and dvoarak images can often be used to find the center of a system. I just got called in to the office so at least I know this board will be active for the night.

[philnyc]

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day...

I can see that. I can also see that you know what you're talking about. I'm just enjoying the discussion. This is a lot of fun for me.