99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on August 4, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The strong tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is
moving inland over Central America and further development is not
anticipated. However...the wave is expected to bring locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sunday.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$

Forecaster Rhome

[gatorcane]

Unbelievable. Right before it hits land, this thing decides to get going...

so far this season is following in the footsteps of 2006. The Atlantic is producing nothing as far as the tropics are concerned....

at least not yet

[alan1961]

some of this convection could split and head through the yucatan channel..just a possiblity

[Wren]

Hi, I mostly lurk, and am beneath even amateur status here. I've been following 99L and all the info and comments here. I have a question, but doesn't relate to 99L. I see something going on at 20N and 55W. Is the counter clockwise spin there something to keep an eye on?

[tailgater]

This disturbance could spin up to TD status in the BOC, at the surface, there is some vorticity. Surface obs of wind direction ESE , E NE N and NW, but no real pressure falls.
I've found that weak system tend to spin up alittle in this region and nothing else is catching my interest anywhere else in the basin.
Guanaja Houndras
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html

[Wren]

Tailgator thanks for your observation, but what I'm talking about is at 22N 55W, east northeast of Cuba. I probably shouldn't have asked my question here.

[alan1961]

Hi, I mostly lurk, and am beneath even amateur status here. I've been following 99L and all the info and comments here. I have a question, but doesn't relate to 99L. I see something going on at 20N and 55W. Is the counter clockwise spin there something to keep an eye on?

upper level low wren.. actually 60w 20n if thats the one you mean

[wxman57]

Hi, I mostly lurk, and am beneath even amateur status here. I've been following 99L and all the info and comments here. I have a question, but doesn't relate to 99L. I see something going on at 20N and 55W. Is the counter clockwise spin there something to keep an eye on?

That's an upper-level low pressure center. In rare cases, such lows can generate convection near the center and become tropical cyclones, but generally they don't.

[tailgater]

Tailgator thanks for your observation, but what I'm talking about is at 22N 55W, east northeast of Cuba. I probably shouldn't have asked my question here.

Nothing to worry about there Wren, it's an Upper Level Low, almost never work down to the surface to form anything tropical.
Sorry 57 I didn't see your post.

[Cyclone1]

This thing isn't dead yet. Major concentration of convection is still over the GOH. Maybe something will spin up. Put this Hot Pocket back in the microwave. It's not done yet!

[Sanibel]

What you are seeing is the energy associated with the wave struggling to maintain over water. This is because the center is just overland near water allowing the energy to stay offshore. I think the center has slowed - but - it is maintaining west towards EPAC. We could see an attempt to relocate - but I doubt it. Maybe these non-surface systems can relocate easier, but it will go into Yucatan anyway. Perhaps the convection will rip away and become another system over BOC - doubtful, but bears watching.

[Aquawind]

Geesh already 99L must be the most talked about tropical wave not labeled a TD for like ever! Whata teaser..to the very last it seems as well..

[Wren]

Thanks guys! Now back to lurking.

[HURAKAN]

99L doesn't give up. Could this area of convection move toward the BOC?

[Nimbus]

I see something going on at 20N and 55W. Is the counter clockwise spin there something to keep an eye on?

Actually that upper low could be effecting the upper high ridge to its west that is spinning clockwise. The ridge was supposed to maintain itself over the gulf for at least 60 hours in one of the model runs I saw earlier.

['CaneFreak]

its dead ladies and gentlemen....let it die....please...

[HURAKAN]

its dead ladies and gentlemen....let it die....please...

It's not dead. It may not develop because of land interaction, but you can see in the satellite images that 99L is not dead, it's living and going.

[El Nino]

Maybe it's not dead, but wake me up only if it becomes a TD. I'm tired to hope !

['CaneFreak]

its dead ladies and gentlemen....let it die....please...

It's not dead. It may not develop because of land interaction, but you can see in the satellite images that 99L is not dead, it's living and going.

let me say it again......its dead ladies and gentlemen...nothing will become of this here 99L...sorry...there is no circulation left...just an area of convection and minor troughiness...

[lrak]

its dead ladies and gentlemen....let it die....please...

It's not dead. It may not develop because of land interaction, but you can see in the satellite images that 99L is not dead, it's living and going.

let me say it again......its dead ladies and gentlemen...nothing will become of this here 99L...sorry...there is no circulation left...just an area of convection and minor troughiness...

"Taste Great" got to be a little aged to get this one.