GFS continues to develop African wave

[boca]

While its quiet at least were having fun tracking all these phantom storms out there.Something has to pop soon to make any one of these models right.

[storms in NC]

It is like you are having you first child. trying to guess when the baby will be born. LOL

[Opal storm]

It is like you are having you first child. trying to guess when the baby will be born. LOL

Or judging how a first round pick in the draft is going to be a bust or the next big thing.

[Scorpion]

Wow... latest Euro agrees with GFS to the tee on location at 192

[Scorpion]

The agreement between the Euro and GFS is downright scary

[x-y-no]

Wow... latest Euro agrees with GFS to the tee on location at 192

Pretty close, yes.

12z ECMWF at 7 days:



(SLP and 500mb geopotential heights)

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z Yurpian steering suggests GFS big storm is on an Andrew/Katrina Florida then Central Gulf type path

[gatorcane]

wow if this pans out it could be VERY BAD for Florida and the GOM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

EURO is usually a pretty reliable..I remember it called quite a few storms accurately in 04 and 05..Including Wilma and Frances..

[miamicanes177]

Wow... latest Euro agrees with GFS to the tee on location at 192

Pretty close, yes.

12z ECMWF at 7 days:

Can someone post the website to this ECMWF model?

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow... latest Euro agrees with GFS to the tee on location at 192

Pretty close, yes.

12z ECMWF at 7 days:

Can someone post the website to this ECMWF model?

I posted it with all the model runs here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96847&start=40

[gatorcane]

well it was only a matter of time......

I hope everybody is ready for the ride. The next 3 months may get interesting with our first potential CV storm building and moving west across the tropical Atlantic over the next week.

[Tommedic]

Despite all the hoopla with the agreement of models, I believe that we, as either professional or amateur weather "guessers", need to take this opportunity as people are being "hyped" over these possible storms, that now is the time to refine our preparations no matter where we are located. As for me, I am adding a few days of food and water to my stock already on hand. I fully believe that this year will bring a bad storm for someone on the East Coast. Just my humble gut talking.

[miamicanes177]

how strong a storm is the Euro showing at 240 hours? It looks like a major hurricane

[x-y-no]

how strong a storm is the Euro showing at 240 hours? It looks like a major hurricane

Uhh ... no. A major hurricane would have a lot more than 2 closed isobars.

[storms in NC]

Despite all the hoopla with the agreement of models, I believe that we, as either professional or amateur weather "guessers", need to take this opportunity as people are being "hyped" over these possible storms, that now is the time to refine our preparations no matter where we are located. As for me, I am adding a few days of food and water to my stock already on hand. I fully believe that this year will bring a bad storm for someone on the East Coast. Just my humble gut talking.

SSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[KWT]

x-y-no, ECM goes down to 974mbs, and consider it took Katrina down to 960mbs then you sort of have an idea that its forecasted to be pretty deep by the time it reaches that area, that pressure from the ECM probably isn't the true nature of how deep it is due to resolution but on its own 974mbs would be probably a cat-2.

[ekal]

how strong a storm is the Euro showing at 240 hours? It looks like a major hurricane

Uhh ... no. A major hurricane would have a lot more than 2 closed isobars.

That model graphic, however, is depicting the height of the 500 mb pressure level within the atmosphere.

For what it is worth, the Euro literally shows a Cat 1 hurricane, since that dark hunter green color suggests a storm between 35 m/s and 40 m/s, which is roughly Cat 1. In reality, if what the Euro depicts actually occurred, the poor model resolution would mean that the tc would be much stronger.

It is, however, 240 hours. Don't get too excited.

Btw, this is a wonderful board. I know I seem new to everyone, but I have been lurking since 2004. I have learned much and am very thankful to everyone here!

[sevenleft]

how strong a storm is the Euro showing at 240 hours? It looks like a major hurricane

Uhh ... no. A major hurricane would have a lot more than 2 closed isobars.

It is 974mb at 240 hours. The resolution at that time is very coarse. If it had a very fine resolution, you would be looking at a pressure much lower than 974mb.

And taken at face value..that 500mb setup takes it through/over/near south Florida and the Keys...into the GOM..and then eventually into Texas or the upper Gulf Coast.

[x-y-no]

For what it is worth, the Euro literally shows a Cat 1 hurricane, since that dark hunter green color suggests a storm between 35 m/s and 40 m/s, which is roughly Cat 1.

Yes. Hence my reply that it does not depict a major.

In reality, if what the Euro depicts actually occurred, the poor model resolution would mean that the tc would be much stronger.

Maybe, maybe not. Low resolution cuts both ways.

It is, however, 240 hours. Don't get too excited.

Thanks, I'm not.

Btw, this is a wonderful board. I know I seem new to everyone, but I have been lurking since 2004. I have learned much and am very thankful to everyone here!

Glad you decided to participate. Welcome!