System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Kerry04]

How will the ridge help this system?

[cheezyWXguy]

Personally I don't think the storm coming off Africa will really start till develop until this one in the Carribean is almost done. Just my guess.

We'll see...it probably wont develop as fast as the GFS thinks, but its already initialized as a 1006mb surface low...well have to see what happens after it moves off africa.

In terms of the Caribbean storm, theres nothing immidiate, and Derek is right, as there is no reason to sound the alarm...yet. Both of these systems seem to have a decent chance to develop, as the computer models have been saying this over the past couple of days

[Aric Dunn]

How will the ridge help this system?

it will help vent the system. meaning you have air converging at the surface so you need air diverging aloft. or in other words like a car engine air comes into the engine so it needs a way out. thats what a divergence aloft or a upper ridge does

[vaffie]

The GFS, CMC and Navy models are all showing decreasing shear over the next 24 hours in the northwestern Caribbean, and very little shear over the Gulf of Mexico through at least Wednesday. Conditions look good for development.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMP ... ploop.html

My gut tells me we should watch the area southeast of Jamaica that is blowing up right now. It's in an area of upper level divergence, lower-level convergence, 88+ degree water that is untouched from any other major storm. And it's been doing well, over the course of the day, and most notably at the diurnal minimum about four hours ago. Pressures have been falling slowly, though not much--just about 1-2 mb since yesterday--nothing to write home about, but conditions are set for larger pressure falls tonight if storms really get going after 1 am.

[Weatherfreak14]

Convecton everywhere all over the carribean right now, lets see if it finds a center to circulate around.

[Normandy]

Evening Thoughts,
Just checking back now after about 4 hours away, and things have since drastically improved with this wave....Im actually very impressed. I didn't count on convection being able to sustain itself and the surface convergence going from decent to really good. Also looks like I probably overdid the shear, as it doesn't look so bad.

What does interest me with regards to this system is that ULL to the west of it....its fairly close (enough to vent a mature system where this disturbance is located). In addition it doesn't seem to be moving terribly fast...I do wonder if it can put a big enough dent in the ridge to draw this farther north than the Tx/Mx border, but if not this looks like a MX storm (possibly a double strike Yucatan and mainland). It does have to develop first, and chances seem to have drastically increased since I last took a look....I'd say it has a good shot at invest status tom. Good call Aric.

[Farseer]

for the record, I mentioned the area in my PNJ post this evening, but am not about to sound the alarm

PNJ post?

PNJ = Pensacola News Journal
Here is Derek's blog at pnj.com.

[canegrl04]

Dean doesn't seem very far off,now.I think we will see him next week,judging from the improving conditions,and the models

[srainhoutx]

Totally argee Normandy. One interest is the piece of energy diving S through SE TX/LA this evening via WV SAT Loop and it's affect on Ridge...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Will watch ULL closely for more WNW component the next few hours.

[HouTXmetro]

While not speaking about Tropical activity, one of our local forecasters predicted the Ridge over us to move West. I personally think that will create some type of weakness.

[TampaFl]

That's not a full shot from the Euro i don't believe.

I belive this is the link you are looking for:


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

[Aric Dunn]

That's not a full shot from the Euro i don't believe.

I belive this is the link you are looking for:


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

no that is a differnt link .. we figured it out .. whati posted is the real deal

[benny]

Something is trying to happen south of Jamaica tonight-- convection has been increasing and there is evidence of a sharper trough than earlier today. At last light I thought I could see south winds in the low to mid levels. I don't think it is a threat tomorrow but as the system approaches Mexico... could be interesting. A surge to the east could also help to kick off convection. I think the upper-pattern is getting more favorable too...

[Extremeweatherguy]

While not speaking about Tropical activity, one of our local forecasters predicted the Ridge over us to move West. I personally think that will create some type of weakness.

Very possible and I think the GFS was trying to pick up on that in the 18Z run. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully no weakness forms and this can go straight for Mexico...that would be the best scenario IMO.

[windstorm99]

Looks like convection is being inhanced by the upper level low in the vicinity.

[Aric Dunn]

Remember if you are not in the studio you can post questions in here

[Sambucol]

While not speaking about Tropical activity, one of our local forecasters predicted the Ridge over us to move West. I personally think that will create some type of weakness.

Very possible and I think the GFS was trying to pick up on that in the 18Z run. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully no weakness forms and this can go straight for Mexico...that would be the best scenario IMO.

If the ridge does move to the west, does that mean a more northerly track should a storm develop? I'm in the Houston area, too.

[Aric Dunn]

While not speaking about Tropical activity, one of our local forecasters predicted the Ridge over us to move West. I personally think that will create some type of weakness.

Very possible and I think the GFS was trying to pick up on that in the 18Z run. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully no weakness forms and this can go straight for Mexico...that would be the best scenario IMO.

If the ridge does move to the west, does that mean a more northerly track should a storm develop? I'm in the Houston area, too.

i have passed it along to Mike .. and when he starts talking about that system he will answer the question

oopps wrong thread oh well

[HouTXmetro]

While not speaking about Tropical activity, one of our local forecasters predicted the Ridge over us to move West. I personally think that will create some type of weakness.

Very possible and I think the GFS was trying to pick up on that in the 18Z run. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully no weakness forms and this can go straight for Mexico...that would be the best scenario IMO.

If the ridge does move to the west, does that mean a more northerly track should a storm develop? I'm in the Houston area, too.

it depends on how far west it moves... If it moves far enough and a weakness develops the storm could move more northerly. On the other hand if it nudges slightly west and we are still under it's influence the counter clockwise flow could actually push the system Southwest and away towards Mexico.

Is it just me or does the convergence down there looks more impressive by the hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[Nimbus]

Is the ULL that is rolling west ahead of the surface trough near Jamaica forecast to maintain strength?

Only way the area near Jamaica would end up in Mexico is if that ULL weakened considerably. The subtropical ridge is going to follow the ULL west and steer whatever develops into the gulf isn't it?

We still don't have a circulation to initialize the models with, although someone must have tried some "what if" initializations since a system could develop closer in than the models have been showing.