Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Derek Ortt]

data T number decreased... that means there has been a weakening trend during the last 6 hours

[cycloneye]

Jesse,unless a ship is in the area to report strong winds.

[RL3AO]

data T number decreased... that means there has been a weakening trend during the last 6 hours

Umm...what?

[chadtm80]

Derek where are you getting T Numbers? I saw none earlier

[JonathanBelles]

12/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.6W T1.0/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[drezee]

There is a lot of energy in front of this system as well. I beleive if 90L can gether that it could quickly start to develop in about 12-24 hours from now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

where are you getting the t numbers?????

[southerngale]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=24,d=1,v=100,pp=0,t=200708121915#controls

TD#4 by 11pm fore sure!!!!!!!!!!

Possibly, but no, it's not "for sure!!!!!!!!!!" Anyone who comes along and reads that but doesn't click the link, may think you know something they don't. A lot of people have trouble with sat images.

we could very well see our first hurricane of the season!!!!!!!!

Please read the sticky at the top of the forum. I know you do it all the time, but it seems like you're in a panic with the surplus of !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! in every post. Maybe you could tone it down a little for the sanity of others.

[vacanechaser]

Derek where are you getting T Numbers? I saw none earlier

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

where are you getting the t numbers?????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[clfenwi]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

[Thunder44]

Derek where are you getting T Numbers? I saw none earlier

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think he wants to know if Derek saw any other T-numbers issued on this system earlier. There none others shown there.

Also remember guys, Dvorak SSD estimates are not that important to upgrading systems. TPC upgraded "Chantal" to TD when Dvorak had said it was "extratropical".

[cycloneye]

727
WHXX01 KWBC 130048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070813 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 27.1W 13.7N 30.5W 14.8N 34.6W 15.8N 39.2W
BAMD 12.7N 27.1W 13.1N 31.0W 13.6N 35.0W 14.1N 39.1W
BAMM 12.7N 27.1W 13.4N 31.2W 14.1N 35.6W 14.6N 40.2W
LBAR 12.7N 27.1W 12.9N 30.8W 13.3N 35.0W 13.7N 39.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000 070818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 44.1W 18.6N 54.6W 19.2N 64.7W 18.2N 73.6W
BAMD 14.6N 43.2W 15.8N 51.6W 16.9N 59.4W 17.7N 67.1W
BAMM 14.9N 45.1W 14.7N 55.1W 13.5N 63.6W 12.9N 68.8W
LBAR 14.0N 44.1W 13.5N 52.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 43KTS 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 27.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 24.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Tropical Models.

[miamicanes177]

data T number decreased... that means there has been a weakening trend during the last 6 hours

This has clearly not weakened in the last 6 hours. In fact, I would argue it now looks better than it ever has during its entire life span.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I would have too agree itdose look better tonight!!!

[NONAME]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

Where do you get the TAFB T-numbers I know where to get ssd but were do you get the rest.

[Thunder44]

727
WHXX01 KWBC 130048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070813 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 27.1W 13.7N 30.5W 14.8N 34.6W 15.8N 39.2W
BAMD 12.7N 27.1W 13.1N 31.0W 13.6N 35.0W 14.1N 39.1W
BAMM 12.7N 27.1W 13.4N 31.2W 14.1N 35.6W 14.6N 40.2W
LBAR 12.7N 27.1W 12.9N 30.8W 13.3N 35.0W 13.7N 39.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000 070818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 44.1W 18.6N 54.6W 19.2N 64.7W 18.2N 73.6W
BAMD 14.6N 43.2W 15.8N 51.6W 16.9N 59.4W 17.7N 67.1W
BAMM 14.9N 45.1W 14.7N 55.1W 13.5N 63.6W 12.9N 68.8W
LBAR 14.0N 44.1W 13.5N 52.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 43KTS 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 27.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 24.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Tropical Models.

Look out for another run of models before 10:30pm. TPC might want to wait longer to upgrade this wave.

[Normandy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evening Thoughts,

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

A significant change has occured in regards to its structure from this time yesterday to right now. Outflow is starting to spread on its eastern quadrant, a sure sign that easterly shear is really losing its grip on the system. In addition, outflow is starting to expand in all other quadrants as well, suggesting that this is a stregthening cyclone and likely could get classified very soon. Convection still persists and has been firing near the center all day, and presently IMO the LLC appears to be on the eastern edge of the new convective burst. I dont think the LLC is exposed at all.

All data really suggests that this is a Tropical Depression....Bouys have indicated brisk W and NW winds as the center passed north, and QSCAT shows plenty of 20-30 kt barbs and a very healthy circulation. This meets every requirement for upgrading, and the NHC should do so within the next 24 hours. I'd be shocked if they don't declare this TD4 by monday.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif
My thinking about the track really remains unchanged, looks like the islands will be threatened by this. The ridge above the storm looks strong, and there really are no indications that this will lift north of the islands. I still feel that the northern winwards and *possible* PR would be targets, but with model guidance continuing to suggest a southern track through the Carribean I feel the ENTIRE island chain needs to be on alert.


My thinking on intensity also has not changed, and I believe that slow intesification to Tropical Storm status within 1-2 days is likely. I then believe Hurricane Dean will form within 4 days. Slow intensification is likely due to lower SST's and a lack of heat content....however the brisk motion of this storm might compensate for the lack of heat potential and SST's, and it is possible that this could strengthen faster than what I am thinking.

The approach to the islands remains worrisome...Shear out ahead in the immediate future looks very weak, and really nothing should stop this from gruadually strengthening. When this approaches the islands, I worry about the prospects of an intensifying hurricane bearing down on the islands, much in the manner Emily intensified while going over Barbados. Emily caused significant damage to Barbados despite being a minimal hurricane while passing over the island, however it was deepening while it passed over Barbados. I fear that this could be a bit stronger than Emily while deepening as well. Barring shear down the road, It appears as though the island will be facing a dangerous storm by the weeks end.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC graphic.

[wxman57]

data T number decreased... that means there has been a weakening trend during the last 6 hours

This has clearly not weakened in the last 6 hours. In fact, I would argue it now looks better than it ever has during its entire life span.

I'm not sure what you're basing that statement on. The center of the convection is near 29W. Unless the exposed LLC has been moving at 35-40 kts it isn't anywhere near that far west. I estimate the LLC is about 100 miles east of the convective center near the right edge of the colder tops. It's a little closer, but not there yet. You won't be able to see the LLC using IR satellite, so we'll just have to wait until morning to determine the proximity of the LLC to the heavy convection. And that's what the NHC will probably do.