New storm on the horizon??

[PTPatrick]

Not worried about the u-turn...just worried about it crossing FL and ruining my weekend next weekend

[ericinmia]

This is it's CMC phase analysis....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/84.html

[Zardoz]

This is it's CMC phase analysis....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/84.html

Wow! That is one seriously esoteric set of data. In layman's terms, please, what does it mean?

[Scorpion]

CMC says hurricane hitting SFL. The consistency has been quite remarkable, however, I am still leery of development because I see no other model support.

[deltadog03]

actually EURO does show something very weak, but something crossing florida and into the gom

[Scorpion]

It is interesting that the Euro is showing a low around the same timeframe as the CMC in a similar location. Makes you wonder...

[fci]

Can you give a link to the Euro you are referring to?

[ericinmia]

Can you give a link to the Euro you are referring to?

96 hours out... Low in the Bahamas. The new 00z Euro won't be coming in until around 3am+ or so... Should be interesting to see.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081912!!/



Here is a link to another picture of the same thing/different presentation... but at 144 hours....
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f144.gif

[Sanibel]

Compute: When Dean weakens over land this could get stronger.

See what the surface looks like on visible tomorrow.

[ericinmia]

Here is the NOGAPS at 108 hours.... with a little low over southern florida....
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... z/f108.gif
albeit not well defined. And the majority of these models are not taking into account what has occured this evening, hence, they are initializing the system from a slightly different cord.

Same here with the GFS at 120 hours...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... z/f120.gif

And lastly, the UKMET showing a small area of low pressure at 72 hours...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... 2z/f72.gif


Not much! But we don't have much to base anything off of yet, if ever. As things develop the models will have a better grasp on it. The tropics are really not these global models specialties, we need a storm... so we can run a higher resolution grid... a la GFDL/HRWF/mm5/etc. Until then you have to look for the subtleties to prog a storm early...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Very big area of convection. I wouldn't be suprised to find an Invest over the next 2 days. Looks like Florida is getting some much needed rain.

[Vortex]

CMC 00z run 8/20 landfall along the se coast of FL exiting around Tampa appears GOM bound...CMC has been super consistent to this point on development and impacted areas over the last several days,,,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[windstorm99]

Covection still on the increase....

[Zardoz]

Covection still on the increase...

It's a convection machine:

GOES East Rainbow

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not nearly as favorable as the enviroment that produced said storm in 2005. But it reminds me of the distrabance that formed RITA. We will see. I don't think it will be more then a weak system because of the unfavorable upper levels.

[bob rulz]

This is it's CMC phase analysis....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/84.html

Wow! That is one seriously esoteric set of data. In layman's terms, please, what does it mean?

On my first look (and I am in no way experienced), this is what I gather from it:

The color of the track is the pressure in millibars, which can be seen in the corner there. It's in the "symmetric warm core" area, which probably means a tropical system. The size of the circles in the plot...I'm not sure about that. I would say it's wind speed, but the largest circle is 700km, which would translate to about 450mph...so yeah, I don't think that's it. The next plot shows it's a deep warm core, which means, again, a tropical system. The bottom 2 graphs are pretty self-explanatory.

I could be wrong on some aspects, but that's what I get out of it. If anyone would like to correct me on anything, feel free. I think I've grasped the basic concept, but when it's all put together, I'm not sure what it all means in the end.

CMC 00z run 8/20 landfall along the se coast of FL exiting around Tampa appears GOM bound...CMC has been super consistent to this point on development and impacted areas over the last several days,,,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow! Not only does it put it into the Gulf of Mexico, it slows it WAY down as it approaches Florida.

[Meso]

The 00z MM5

[HURAKAN]

First visible.

[vacanechaser]

heres the 530am outlook



ABNT20 KNHC 200909
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[caneman]

All right folks lets wake up. NHC says slow development possible. CMC sniffed this one out. CMC bashers lets give some credit. Title of this thread should be changed to Slow development possilbe of SW Atlantic system?