2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

[aspen]

Whether this becomes sheared slop or a powerful hurricane seems to depend on the difference between a faster/west solution, or a slower/eastern solution. The GFS has the former: the disturbance rams itself into CA and gets sheared to death by that jet over the Gulf. The GFS-Para and the CMC have more of the latter scenario, where there’s enough distance from land and the jet, and enough time over water, for something significant to spin up before getting dragged up north. My comments about watching for earlier development have not changed, because the CMC is still showing a strong precursor wave at the Lesser Antilles in 4/5 days. It would be totally 2020 to have a strong Caribbean Cruiser in October when everyone expected one in August or September (although Laura was pretty close if it went further south).

[Shell Mound]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

The precipitation field suggests a strongly sheared system, like Irene ‘99. The synoptic setup would suggest a strong TS or low-end Cat-1 hurricane.

[otowntiger]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

The precipitation field suggests a strongly sheared system, like Irene ‘99. The synoptic setup would suggest a strong TS or low-end Cat-1 hurricane.

. Not only that but quite possibly one that could miss all of Florida to the south.

[toad strangler]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

The precipitation field suggests a strongly sheared system, like Irene ‘99. The synoptic setup would suggest a strong TS or low-end Cat-1 hurricane.

. Not only that but quite possibly one that could miss all of Florida to the south.

Sure, if you buy a front clearing the peninsula in October.

[toad strangler]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

LOL LOL at 200 hrs plus on that run

[SFLcane]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

LOL LOL at 200 hrs plus on that run

Forget the end it’s got a strong hurricane in SW Florida. Now under 200 and development near 100 hrs.

[Steve H.]

Yeah I hope a front clears florida in October. Lately we've been sweating right through halloween!! I doubt that will happen. Can only hope an early noreaster can drive one through

[Steve]

That GFS Parallel run ends at 270 (11 1/4 days) with the first storm not crossing Florida but bouncing west and weakening under strong high pressure as a stronger system comes up from the Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=270

[SconnieCane]

That GFS Parallel run ends at 270 (11 1/4 days) with the first storm not crossing Florida but bouncing west and weakening under strong high pressure as a stronger system comes up from the Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=270

Second run that's done that if I'm not mistaken?

[StAuggy]

06z Para...

Potentially overdone but who knows You can tell it’s going to go NE look at that front.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CHghPp1/CD145-C3-E-89-DF-44-B2-8-B0-E-ED6-E28594-B4-F.jpg

The precipitation field suggests a strongly sheared system, like Irene ‘99. The synoptic setup would suggest a strong TS or low-end Cat-1 hurricane.

. Not only that but quite possibly one that could miss all of Florida to the south.

A FL miss will require a track over Cuba

[Aric Dunn]

And right on queue the wave that may develop in a few days in the western carrib has begun increasing convection as it approaches the islands...

I suppose we can start a thread on it now that there is an actual feature..

[SFLcane]

That GFS Parallel run ends at 270 (11 1/4 days) with the first storm not crossing Florida but bouncing west and weakening under strong high pressure as a stronger system comes up from the Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=270

This run does not weaken it as much and brings it onshore SW Florida.

[SFLcane]

And right on queue the wave that may develop in a few days in the western carrib has begun increasing convection as it approaches the islands...

I suppose we can start a thread on it now that there is an actual feature..

https://i.ibb.co/pZyJWY8/LABELS-19700101-000000-23.gif

Bingo!

[chaser1]

That GFS Parallel run ends at 270 (11 1/4 days) with the first storm not crossing Florida but bouncing west and weakening under strong high pressure as a stronger system comes up from the Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=270

Entertaining at the least. That would certainly be the 2020 hurricane season telling 'Old Man Winter.... "oh NO you don't, I'm not done yet" LOL

[Spacecoast]

FSU still has Genesis @ 30% on the 1st system this Saturday (10-3)
CMC and GEFS also hint at 1st sstem developing:


NAV NE track brings early system south of FL:...


CMC @240 looks to run into Yuctan:

[TheStormExpert]

The precipitation field suggests a strongly sheared system, like Irene ‘99. The synoptic setup would suggest a strong TS or low-end Cat-1 hurricane.

. Not only that but quite possibly one that could miss all of Florida to the south.

Sure, if you buy a front clearing the peninsula in October.

A front did just clear the peninsula this past week.

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1308464731615711232

[LarryWx]

GEFS P look like the old CMC wants to ramp things up too much in my opinion.

https://i.ibb.co/NKvXs0C/8e4bdb55-b6d0-460d-9a3b-4de993dabad0.gif

Didn’t we just get an upgrade to the GFS the other day? If so than what’s this?

It is confusing. We just got an upgrade to the GEFS, which finally now shares the same “guts” as the current GFS. So, for the first time ever, the GEFS is based on FV3.

What’s shown here, the para-GFS is a tweaked version of the FV3 that is expected to become the newly revised GFS at some point. This is just a revision as opposed to what the new GEFS is, which is a total overhaul of the prior version of the GEFS. Even though it is just a revision, my observations this season tell me that this para-GFS is more prone to have TC geneses than the current GFS. So, that means fewer missed geneses but more fake storms than what the current GFS has. “blp” was noting that and a pro-met confirmed this to me.

[Shell Mound]

There’s been a wall of shear over the western Caribbean since at least 2011. Why should it let up just now? Furthermore, shear thus far has been consistently higher than in a typical Niña year, hence lower-than-expected ACE to date. At this point I think the western Caribbean will continue to be a “dead zone” as far as major hurricanes are concerned, owing to the influence of Niño-like TUTT and STJ activity. As someone previously mentioned, another Michael in the Gulf of Mexico would be exceptional.

We still have the entire month of October to get through, and also the models are probably not taking the La Niña into effect (particularly the GFS it seems). Don’t give up at all yet because 2020 is known for surprises, and the Western Caribbean has shown it is favourable this year more then other years with Marco and Nana (the former being a strong tropical storm before exiting and the latter becoming a brief C1).

Well, so far 2020 has not behaved like a “typical” Niña year, given that ACE has been much lower than it should have been relative to NS. That’s certainly surprising, but it doesn’t garner the attention it merits, perhaps because people are more interested in bullish vs. bearish records, understandably so. Additionally, besides the GFS-P, most of the EPS members show broad, elongated MSLP fields, and only a handful show even a marginal hurricane, indicating that the EPS also shows strong westerly shear over the Gulf of Mexico, Yucatán Channel, and extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea. There hasn’t been a MH in the (north-)western Caribbean since Rina ‘11. As for Nana, it was questionably a hurricane at best. Currently models show Niño-like STJ activity near western Cuba as the potential system consolidates, so anything that forms would be highly sheared and weak at best, probably no more than a high-end TS or very marginal Cat-1, with strongest winds occurring spottily in squalls displaced well to the east of the centre.

[Steve]

That GFS Parallel run ends at 270 (11 1/4 days) with the first storm not crossing Florida but bouncing west and weakening under strong high pressure as a stronger system comes up from the Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=270

This run does not weaken it as much and brings it onshore SW Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/xTSmTMjJ/DC8-AED99-077-D-46-B7-8717-F4001-C079-FC1.jpg

After that frame, it moves west and weakens over the Gulf as the second system comes up. It’s shown as a bend in the isobar lines to the west of the Yucatán at 270h. It rotates around the new system and gets sucked into the new one as it hits SFL. Now that the whole 360 hour run is out, GFS-P has another low in the WCar.