2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1561053081835806720

[LarryWx]

Based on the current and recent runs of models, it appears there will most likely be two MDR areas to focus on:

1. What's now in the E Atlantic, which the models have been suggesting for many days is now in the process of combining two packets of energy into one. This one has been shown to do little until getting pretty far west, at which time 5-6 GFS runs as well as a good number of GEFS members from many runs have shown it to later strengthen into a H and threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the Gulf. It appears to me that this one is the higher threat to the Caribbean/lower SE US/Gulf based on projected steering.

2. What's still in W Africa, which looks to develop further east and thus could ultimately get stronger and larger. This second area looks to me to possibly also threaten the US. However, if so, my educated guess is that that would be upper SC to NE vs lower SE/FL/Gulf for the first one.

Things will change but that's how it looks to me as of now.

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, it would really be something for us to be at 2 ACE only to see that jump tremendously going into next month with two or so strong Cape Verde hurricanes

What's for sure at least for the foreseeable future is that the WPAC and EPAC are not planning on anything extremely big and are likely going to be pretty quiet with the MJO/CCKW progression, so if the Atlantic actually does go full on 2013 mode (which I still am highly skeptical about given the lack of any THC collapse evidence), then Mother Nature has a lot of explaining to do to us!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1561148618152853504

[Zonacane]

Right on cue, the Atlantic is coming alive. Maybe one day we’ll learn.

[FireRat]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1561148618152853504

Imagine if this meant that the Atlantic goes nuts this year Sept thru Late November like the Wpac tends to do. Scary thought. All the quiet worldwide is quite eerie, somethings gotta give.

[dexterlabio]

It’s clear as day that 2022 is shaping to be WPAC’s historic dud year, and EPAC’s impressive streak in spite of the strong La Niña is coming to an end…what I’m interested in right now is if the Atlantic will step up like it did in 2017 and 2020. However, how much it will step up is still up in the air, could be another hyperactive moment like 2017 and 2020, but it could also be a 1977 type, a year when all NHem were underwhelming apart from a short-lived Cat5.

[KWT]

Countless times we've seen it look totally dead only for a switch to turn on and within 5 days we are facing 2-3 developing systems in quick succession. Plenty of time left for an above average hurricane season by any metric to happen.

What I will say though is a hyperactive season is looking increasingly less likely IMO. By this point most of those types of seasons are already on their way towards that hyperactive status. 2022 is already quite quickly falling behind the curve that hyperactive seasons typically have and at least for the next 4-5 days seems little is going to get added to the ACE either.

For example 1998 by this point had Bonnie starting to contribute to the ACE figure and we very soon afterwards added a short lived Charley and a longer lived Danielle.

The only season that kinda bucks the trend of hyperactive seasons would be 1961, which had an exceptionally late start to the core of the season yet September was utterly bombastic with multiple long lived 4/5s.

[Hayabusa]

It’s clear as day that 2022 is shaping to be WPAC’s historic dud year, and EPAC’s impressive streak in spite of the strong La Niña is coming to an end…what I’m interested in right now is if the Atlantic will step up like it did in 2017 and 2020. However, how much it will step up is still up in the air, could be another hyperactive moment like 2017 and 2020, but it could also be a 1977 type, a year when all NHem were underwhelming apart from a short-lived Cat5.

September is coming, I'd be extremely surprised if it would be quiet as hell for a minimum of a major typhoon. 1998, 1999, 2010, 2020 and 2021 had all major typhoons

[dexterlabio]

It’s clear as day that 2022 is shaping to be WPAC’s historic dud year, and EPAC’s impressive streak in spite of the strong La Niña is coming to an end…what I’m interested in right now is if the Atlantic will step up like it did in 2017 and 2020. However, how much it will step up is still up in the air, could be another hyperactive moment like 2017 and 2020, but it could also be a 1977 type, a year when all NHem were underwhelming apart from a short-lived Cat5.

September is coming, I'd be extremely surprised if it would be quiet as hell for a minimum of a major typhoon. 1998, 1999, 2010, 2020 and 2021 had all major typhoons

Yeah WPAC can serve another backloaded season but the quietness over this summer has been very remarkable that it might be too late to get 2022 to near-normal level, especially ACE-wise. 2020 also featured a streak of typhoons in just a span of 4 weeks (which included Goni) but overall 2020 still classifies as a “down” year.

As for the Atlantic, I still feel that this year would continue the streak of active hurricane seasons that began in 2016. But would it reach 2017, 2020, or 2021 level of activity? We’ll find out very soon.

[aspen]

It’s clear as day that 2022 is shaping to be WPAC’s historic dud year, and EPAC’s impressive streak in spite of the strong La Niña is coming to an end…what I’m interested in right now is if the Atlantic will step up like it did in 2017 and 2020. However, how much it will step up is still up in the air, could be another hyperactive moment like 2017 and 2020, but it could also be a 1977 type, a year when all NHem were underwhelming apart from a short-lived Cat5.

September is coming, I'd be extremely surprised if it would be quiet as hell for a minimum of a major typhoon. 1998, 1999, 2010, 2020 and 2021 had all major typhoons

Yeah WPAC can serve another backloaded season but the quietness over this summer has been very remarkable that it might be too late to get 2022 to near-normal level, especially ACE-wise. 2020 also featured a streak of typhoons in just a span of 4 weeks (which included Goni) but overall 2020 still classifies as a “down” year.

As for the Atlantic, I still feel that this year would continue the streak of active hurricane seasons that began in 2016. But would it reach 2017, 2020, or 2021 level of activity? We’ll find out very soon.

2018/19 is probably a realistic ceiling in terms of ACE, hurricanes, and MH. While both did have at least one hurricane in July, they had a pretty pathetic majority of August, with the first high-ACE majors forming in the last week of the month. Florence didn’t even form until August 31st, and that September cranked out like 8 named storms. 2022’s potential first long-tracking hurricane might also form in late August, between when Dorian and Florence formed, and that might finally kick off peak season activity.

Alternatively, whatever’s plaguing the Atlantic prevents any more storms from forming, and we end up with just 3/0/0 and 3 ACE. It’s extremely unlikely, but technically not impossible. Pretty much 2013 on steroids.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The way the models keep backing off development and postponing things, I feel like we may challenge some records for inactivity. Every time the models show something they back off and show something else further away in time. Dry air is still there, as well as shear. Just an opinion and not a forecast.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens with this season, I think it's pretty clear that future predictors may need to be revised in a sense that they handle mid-level dry air as a much more important factor when predicting seasonal activity, especially in the summer/late summer forecasts, as much as they can. As we are seeing with this season, La Nina is a + for above average activity. Low wind shear is also a +. Thin SAL (which doesn't seem abnormally thick, like 2020 lol) is also a +. Warm MDR/W. Atlantic is a +. But despite all of that, the mid-level dry air alone is enough to literally shut down the entire basin. I see mid-level dry air as this sneaky gremlin that comes in without people seeing it and chews up and destroys the wires in the kitchen (much like the life force behind the Atlantic hurricane season). It's clearly one of the most, if not the most, unfavorable factor in determining cyclone activity, yet also one of the most poorly predictable/known. I think the day we're able to detect when mid-level dry air is going to be a headache for a season is the day our NS prediction numbers and that stuff will be dramatically improved.

Now as for this season, I'm going to say that I still believe that peak season will bring some storms to track. It was pointed out earlier in this thread it seems, but one would have to imagine that having all 3 main NH basins practically shut down for the next weeks or so would be legitimately odd, considering how such an event really has not happened since at least 1977. I mean, I would still have to imagine that at least one of the basins would have to eventually wake up

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1561350961070833664

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1561334594888138754




Rapid development will make the slow start just another blip, but we are starting to cross into the head scratching zone. Right now this is relying on the models being somewhat accurate for the next 10 days. We will see.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1561334594888138754?s=20&t=e9eeNSbb9R-mn2LQscOSNg

Rapid development will make the slow start just another blip, but we are starting to cross into the head scratching zone. Right now this is relying on the models being somewhat accurate for the next 10 days. We will see.

The season posts are getting less jokey than they were a few weeks ago, and they are recognizing that something is off.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1561334594888138754?s=20&t=e9eeNSbb9R-mn2LQscOSNg

Rapid development will make the slow start just another blip, but we are starting to cross into the head scratching zone. Right now this is relying on the models being somewhat accurate for the next 10 days. We will see.

The season posts are getting less jokey than they were a few weeks ago, and they are recognizing that something is off.

But as far as scientific quality, they are still a joke. No one is able to identify the problem, even those amateurs who are convinced they know the answer. This is what is so frustrating to this part of the season. We do not know how slow or fast the season will be, all we know is every year season cancel posts will increase until we get activity.

[MHC Tracking]

GFS is almost on an island with a long-lived hurricane from "wave #2". CMC shows zilch, and ECMWF keeps things very weak. If GFS drops this, the question will need to be asked: what's causing this inactivity? We've pretty much passed the point where it can just be dismissed as climo, and it's obvious that something more is going on. Perhaps it could be the seemingly endless pump of subtropical dry air into the MDR, and, if so, will it shut off? Most modeling is not particularly optimistic. There does come a point at which we may have to start talking about a 1977esque NHEM, but we're probably not quite there yet

[tolakram]

GFS is almost on an island with a long-lived hurricane from "wave #2". CMC shows zilch, and ECMWF keeps things very weak. If GFS drops this, the question will need to be asked: what's causing this inactivity? We've pretty much passed the point where it can just be dismissed as climo, and it's obvious that something more is going on. Perhaps it could be the seemingly endless pump of subtropical dry air into the MDR, and, if so, will it shut off? Most modeling is not particularly optimistic. There does come a point at which we may have to start talking about a 1977esque NHEM, but we're probably not quite there yet

Maybe the Atlantic requires the wpac to be active to some extent in order to mix up the atmosphere? Lots of interesting questions, that's for sure.

[skyline385]

GFS is almost on an island with a long-lived hurricane from "wave #2". CMC shows zilch, and ECMWF keeps things very weak. If GFS drops this, the question will need to be asked: what's causing this inactivity? We've pretty much passed the point where it can just be dismissed as climo, and it's obvious that something more is going on. Perhaps it could be the seemingly endless pump of subtropical dry air into the MDR, and, if so, will it shut off? Most modeling is not particularly optimistic. There does come a point at which we may have to start talking about a 1977esque NHEM, but we're probably not quite there yet

Maybe the Atlantic requires the wpac to be active to some extent in order to mix up the atmosphere? Lots of interesting questions, that's for sure.

I still cant help but think that the incredibly warm waters above 30N have something to do with this, both the Pacific and Atlantic have this. Here's a comparison with 2000 which was believed to be on one of the top analogs for this season (3rd year Nina, quiet July with ramp up in August). Obviously this is still a bit premature as we have September and October to go but it will be interesting to know how this affected the season down the road.