Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[tailgater]

Still some weak turning tis morn
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/200.jpg

[KWT]

If it carries on like it is theres going to a chance that it will be declared as an invest area, given it has fairly decent convection and as you say tailgator what looks like some weak turning.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

[Gustywind]

If it carries on like it is theres going to a chance that it will be declared as an invest area, given it has fairly decent convection and as you say tailgator what looks like some weak turning.

Yeah why not?... Whereas as an invest i'd prefer it with much more convection and more consolitated in spite of his relative decent appareance for the moment, but this wave is persisting on the area as much of his predecessors this year, so let's see what happens whithin the next 24h...because our local weather forecasters are speaking about a remarquable deterioration of the weather Thursday night with strongs showers and numerous thunderstorms..maybe the second "serious player" lol wave churning near the east carib the next 48h

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
You can see the wave well east of the east carib windwards islands , nice looking trying to pop slightly as yesterday.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Waouw shear at 40 kts ahead of the wave difficult trip...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Increasing shear trend near the east carib.

[boca]

That looks like a very healthy wave and as tailgater pointed out there is slight rotation in the system.Their is an obstacle in front of it the Eastern Caribbean Tutt because you can see the clouds moving NNE of the South American coastline which will rip the s*it out of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

[drezee]

http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... xcode=uf25

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

Looking at the latest satelite imagery and forecasted synoptics it looks likely that the windwards are going to experience locally heavy rains and possible gusts to near TS force in about 48-60 hours. This area should then spread wnw towards Puerto Rico. Interesting few days ahead for mid June.

[KWT]

Yep indeed it is interesting and does raise the question of a slightly earlier then average CV season kicking off possibly?

[boca]

It might look good now but as soon as it enters the Caribbean it will be torn apart by the tutt trough.

[gatorcane]

Boca you are right. The upper-level winds in Eastern Caribbean (and the entire Caribbean and Gulf for that matter) are highly unfavorable for development so this wave has a virtually zero chance of development.

The current problem is a strong upper-level low over North-central Florida that is ushering in a W to NW flow from the NW GOM all the way across the Caribbean that will stifle any development.

[Gustywind]

Looking at the latest satelite imagery and forecasted synoptics it looks likely that the windwards are going to experience locally heavy rains and possible gusts to near TS force in about 48-60 hours. This area should then spread wnw towards Puerto Rico. Interesting few days ahead for mid June.

Absolutely, you're right Vortex and Martinica especially could be concerned and my island of Guadeloupe too with maybe less effects, but we're waiting for a real deterioration during the next 48h (numerous strongs showers and embedded thunderstorms), we will see what pan's out , but it's a nice wave given the latest sat pic and weather forecast. I'm monitoring this twave because of the moderate drought abbating on the island, if we can have some water it will be nice for sure....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg : gaining some convection miss puffy wave
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101455
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST TUE JUN 10 2008
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS...TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY.

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

Wave East of Windwards gets a TWO mention:

666
ABNT20 KNHC 101740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[tolakram]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yeah, the jet level cirrus over Barbados seems to mark a dagger of shear aimed at the heart of this wave.


Maybe in 5 days in the Western Caribbean, maybe in the Pacific. Maybe never.

[MGC]

Zero chance till it reaches the West Carb. Shear will prevent any development. The disturbance in the West Carb needs to be watched......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Even the ULL in the North Atlantic has a chance!!!

[KWT]

Yeah the shear will finish this wave off for a little while but still its an interesting little salvo shot from Africa!