Long Range Models

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z GFs Loop.Nothing impressive,only some lows in the Eastern Atlantic,but nothing to open eyebrows.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

the system that approaches the islands still raises my eyebrows. It has been a pretty constant feature in the last several runs and will need to be watched, IMO.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_156l.gif

[cycloneye]

For what its worth,the 12z Canadian model shows something emerging West Africa at 144 hours.

[Decomdoug]

For what its worth,the 12z Canadian model shows something emerging West Africa at 144 hours.

I'd say it was worth.....oh, .06 cents

[Meso]

I find this interesting



And the EURO is usually rather conservative

[Vortex]

6Z GFS 7/16


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[canegrl04]

6Z GFS 7/16


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

I agree with another poster who predicted a major hurricane evolving before the end of July.Potentially a big worry for the US

[cycloneye]

But the 12z GFS does not have that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO shows a system in the Central Atlantic in 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071612!!/

[MiamiensisWx]

6Z GFS 7/16


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

I agree with another poster who predicted a major hurricane evolving before the end of July.Potentially a big worry for the US

...and you're relying solely on a single operational GFS run more than 300 hours out?! Is that your supporting evidence for your views?

Hmm. I must admit that's an interesting "proof" for a forecast. I'm not insinuating that your opinion is unwarranted, but I can't see any true "support", and these types of forecasts have tended to be pseudoscientific in the end.

2005 was very anomalous.

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated this evening that there could be something tropical in the GOM by the middle of next week that will enhance our rainfall. He pointed to the disturbance located just the east of the Lesser Antilles. Anybody else sees this as a possible problem for the GOM in the coming days or weeks?

[RL3AO]

Local met stated this evening that there could be something tropical in the GOM by the middle of next week that will enhance our rainfall. He pointed to the disturbance located just the east of the Lesser Antilles. Anybody else sees this as a possible problem for the GOM in the coming days or weeks?

I don't see how the wave from 94L could possibly be in the GOM (as an open wave I mean). The steering currents are east to west at 40kt. Plus its so far south.

[LaBreeze]

I was thinking the same thing RL3AO. That's why I posted what a local met stated. I just didn't see what he was seeing. Thanks for the reply.

[canegrl04]

6Z GFS 7/16


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

I agree with another poster who predicted a major hurricane evolving before the end of July.Potentially a big worry for the US

...and you're relying solely on a single operational GFS run more than 300 hours out?! Is that your supporting evidence for your views?

Hmm. I must admit that's an interesting "proof" for a forecast. I'm not insinuating that your opinion is unwarranted, but I can't see any true "support", and these types of forecasts have tended to be pseudoscientific in the end.

2005 was very anomalous.

Sometimes I wonder.because I noticed you did not respond this way to "Bold Prediction" post

[blp]

There might be a strong low exiting Africa next week. EURO & GFS seem to be on to something.

7/16 00 EURO 168hrs
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071600!!/

7/16 06 GFS 162hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

7/16 12 EURO 144hrs
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071612!!/

7/16 18 GFS 144hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

7/17 00 GFS 144hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

7/16 12Z GFS did not pick up on this, don't know if it was a bad run. If you run the loops futher both the EURO and GFS strengthen the low. I would be interesting to see if the next EURO run is consistent. Still way too early to get enthusiastic, since we have seen this before. Just interesting how active the models have been for being July.

[blp]

CMC hinting at this low as well.

7/17 00 CMC 144hrs
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... &hour=144h

[cycloneye]

The 06z GFS run shows weak lows moving from east to west in the Atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS shows a pair of lows in the Atlantic,but both look to be fish.Check the loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[x-y-no]

Awfully early to say, but I think there's some good prospect for the low coming off Africa on day 5 (Tuesday the 22nd). The GFS depiction of the low and mid level ridging looks kind of weak to me given the pattern so far this summer - so this could well track further south.

[cycloneye]

Yeah,its the CMC,but it also shows something comming off Africa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation