Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[cycloneye]

Thanks, Luis!!!

I think it was the best thing to do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I were King of the World, 35ºW would be an invest already.

[HURAKAN]

Ed for King!!!!

[CourierPR]

Let the coronation begin.

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

If I were King of the World, 35ºW would be an invest already.

Ed, perhaps before the weekends out with convection maintaining, circulation evident, and model support. Heck, we might have two INVESTs by Monday. I noticed GFS doesn't develop the first wave but keeps it as a strong tropical wave that marches all the way to the TX coast!

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on the latest (I think) CMC, it looks like since the closed low in the catl develops a bit later than the gfs shows, it could either be the easternmost area of convection, or the african wave. However, it looks to me that on that same run of the cmc, the westernmost wave develops in the caribbean just north of venezuela and rapidly strengthens into a central america hit...very interesting, but im not sure what to believe.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't see anything on any Sats that even look like potentia formation? What am i missing here that the models are seeing?

[CourierPR]

I don't see anything on any Sats that even look like potentia formation? What am i missing here that the models are seeing?

One example would be the convection near 50W.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't see anything on any Sats that even look like potentia formation? What am i missing here that the models are seeing?

One example would be the convection near 50W.

Yea but GFS is wanting to pick this thing up around 30W...Weird At least with Bertha we saw some rotation

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see anything on any Sats that even look like potentia formation? What am i missing here that the models are seeing?

8ºN, 35ºW has an obvious rotation. Best convection is still in the ITCZ, but close enough that it may start wrapping in.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see anything on any Sats that even look like potentia formation? What am i missing here that the models are seeing?

One example would be the convection near 50W.

Yeah and based on visible loops, i can see some very slight twisting in the further east wave. It could be trying to develop a circulation, but its way too early to determine that.

[CourierPR]

I think something will pop soon.

[Blown Away]

I think we will get an invest from @8N/35W this weekend. Nice rotation beginning all we need is a little latitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Vortex]

If I were King of the World, 35ºW would be an invest already.

I 2nd that..

[Aric Dunn]

I think we will get an invest from @8N/35W this weekend. Nice rotation beginning all we need is a little latitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

yes that is very suspicious this morning watch it very closely today... looks like a fairly typical area ...

[Emmett_Brown]

While models may be bullish, if you look at the water vapor, the Atlantic basin is pretty chaotic right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Lots of dry air over the deep tropics, and strong TUTT/ULL activity over the Carib and W Atl. I think we may have to wait a couple more weeks to see anything get going. Granted, there are nice waves at the moment, but upper conditions are not great. I think Bertha took off because it was already well developed over Africa before it hit the water... The low tracked back all the way to Ethiopia, and really just needed some hot water to get going. These small circulations are more fragile.

Give it a couple of weeks, and we will be off to the races! Until then, I am going to catch up on my experiments.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 30 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif The middle low will be the one to follow in this run.

[MiamiensisWx]

12z GFS at 30 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif The middle low will be the one to follow in this run.

Actually, I believe the subject of this thread is the easternmost surface low SW of the Cape Verde islands and east of 40 W.

[cycloneye]

42 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif 1009 mb low latitud low near 40w.