Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Hugo1989]

This wave passed near PR in the next 48 hours. The atmosphere is very unstable and the activity of cloudiness is under development there. I think this wave very likely to achieve development.

[ROCK]

plenty of moisture in the carib thats for sure.....sheesh....you should be able to squeeze something out of this mess.....

[Gustywind]

plenty of moisture in the carib thats for sure.....sheesh....you should be able to squeeze something out of this mess.....

Good point ROCK Yeah plenty of moisture is an euphemisma, it seems... that's why i put this pic.

[ConvergenceZone]

At least the sal in the vicinity of this wave is way up north

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Tropics Guy]

SAL shouldn't be much of a problem, water temps are warm enough for development, only factor which may prevent development is upcoming shear from the persistant ULL north of the islands, unless it can ride below the islands where there may be a better chance....

TG

[Blown Away]

SAL shouldn't be much of a problem, water temps are warm enough for development, only factor which may prevent development is upcoming shear from the persistant ULL north of the islands, unless it can ride below the islands where there may be a better chance....

TG

IMO, that TUTT has peaked and is beginning to weaken slowly and this wave is @36 hours from feeling the effects, so it's hard to say what effects the TUTT will have on this wave. The TUTT should enhance the convection.

[cycloneye]

Here is a very interesting site and information about how tropical development can occur from a tropical wave and what signs we look for to then say this system may develop or not.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

Hypothesis 1:
Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a favored region for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings and TC formation;
Hypothesis 2:
The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected from dry air intrusion;
Hypothesis 3:
The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass tonight at 9:06 PM EDT caught the circulation.

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Maybe I'm reading into it to much, but most of these updates have not included language like "Favorable" or "Conditions could become more favorable". At least for now it seems this area has potential.

[Blown Away]

Yep, there it is on the ASCAT! Is this circulation going N or S of PR? Some earlier models had it going close to PR into the SE Bahamas??

[Hugo1989]

I see very good rotation! I think we have something interesting soon!

[wxman57]

I think that this system could well be our next named storm. Setup in the Caribbean appears remarkably similar to pre-Alex. It appears to have a strong MLC and a weaker LLC near 13N/53W this evening. Not much convection yet, but I think that'll change around Monday night/Tuesday morning as it passes south of the DR. In the long range, models develop a fairly strong ridge across the SE U.S. That may indicate an Alex-type path across the Yucatan then toward northeast Mexico or the lower to mid TX coast. Could be an invest tomorrow or Monday.

[Florida1118]

Do you think it will be a invest next TWO?

[cycloneye]

That ASCAT pass may be the trigger to designate as invest sometime on Sunday.

[Blown Away]

That ASCAT pass may be the trigger to designate as invest sometime tommorow.

IMO, little more persistent convection we will see an Invest. Do you think it goes N, S, or through PR??

[cycloneye]

That ASCAT pass may be the trigger to designate as invest sometime tommorow.

IMO, little more persistent convection we will see an Invest. Do you think it goes N, S, or through PR??

S.

[ConvergenceZone]

When wxman57 gives it a chance for developing down the road, I listen....
Perhaps the % of development will increase once it does develop convection, whether that's Monday or Tuesday.

[Big O]

I think that this system could well be our next named storm. Setup in the Caribbean appears remarkably similar to pre-Alex. It appears to have a strong MLC and a weaker LLC near 13N/53W this evening. Not much convection yet, but I think that'll change around Monday night/Tuesday morning as it passes south of the DR. In the long range, models develop a fairly strong ridge across the SE U.S. That may indicate an Alex-type path across the Yucatan then toward northeast Mexico or the lower to mid TX coast. Could be an invest tomorrow or Monday.

Is this the system the 12z European had near Florida and that the GFS had in the same general area? I know of the GFS' right bias, but if the models are showing the development of a fairly strong ridge across the SE U.S., what accounts for the GFS' and ECMWF's depiction of the system in the vicinity of the Bahamas and/or Florida and not in the Carribean or GOM?

[hurricanetrack]

Environmental conditions are not favorable? Well at least the upper level winds seem to be. This thing is sitting right under an upper level anticyclone.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=