Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Ivan,what is that big circle south of Puerto Rico on the ECMWF?

[LarryWx]

Ivan,what is that big circle south of Puerto Rico?

I don't know if Ivan is here, but I can tell you that the Euro spawns a second storm west of the stronger one which moves westward into the E Caribbean while the first one may be recurving well of the US fwiw.

[lonelymike]

Azores High looks blown out on Euro run. Does the Euro show the evolution of the wave behind Pg-30

[MiamiHurricanes10]

ECMWF 12z 240 hours, a tropical depression in the Caribbean from PGI28L and a hurricane in the Atlantic out of PGI30L:

[KWT]

12z Euro recurves with a pretty deep low coming down, in fact its probably even deeper then the 12z GFS!

However the ECM run maybe a little to ofar east because I'm not buying that solution at all of another wave in front of it developing, none of the other models over the last 2-3 days have shown anything there. That causes a slower forward motion from the wave we are watching which means a little to the east.

[ConvergenceZone]

MiamiHurricanes10 , that's interesting regarding the tropical depression in the eastern carib. I wonder where that came from?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

MiamiHurricanes10 , that's interesting regarding the tropical depression in the eastern carib. I wonder where that came from?

PGI28L:

[KWT]

CZ its probably PG-28L because that comes off the coast and it dives SW but its the only ECM run or model for that matter that does anything with it I believe...could be worth watching down the line I suppose if it were to get into the Caribbean.

Still near total agreement on a recurve now, troughing still looks pretty strong and no real major pattern shift from the models at least on the 12z runs, the ECM shows some very impressive troughing actually, enough to lift out even Caribbean stuff I'd suspect.

[hurricaneCW]

It better get super cold here if that trough is that strong. Oh well it's not like we even have a system to track right now. It's all just speculation. The track analysis over 7 days out is also complete speculation. Wasn't Ivan supposed to go out to sea?

[ConvergenceZone]

CZ its probably PG-28L because that comes off the coast and it dives SW but its the only ECM run or model for that matter that does anything with it I believe...could be worth watching down the line I suppose if it were to get into the Caribbean.

Still near total agreement on a recurve now, troughing still looks pretty strong and no real major pattern shift from the models at least on the 12z runs, the ECM shows some very impressive troughing actually, enough to lift out even Caribbean stuff I'd suspect.

KWT, I'm kinda curious, where is this big blocking high pressure that suppose to have build in the north atlantic that is going to replace the troughs?? Is it too early for it? I haven't heard when that big high suppose to set in. Maybe it's not for another week or too?

[cycloneye]

The key about if this wave may threat the NE Caribbean or other areas may be only one thing and that is at what latitude it emerges Africa. Here is an example at image below of two tracks that it may take depending on what latitude it is.

[South Texas Storms]

cycloneye, which track do you think it will take?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, which track do you think it will take?

Well, I am not a pro met so I only relie on all the models, sat images etc that the Test Invest site has. http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI30L.html What I can say is if it takes the southern track, I may have to make last minute preparations.

[South Texas Storms]

are the models showing track 2 on your map? or are some saying track 1 and others track 2?

[gatorcane]

If I were a betting man, I would say this one is headed to fishland. Obviously its still early on here, but nearly every run of the ECMWF and GFS keeps wanting to recurve this thing.....there was only one run of the GFS that did not recurve it but it was the 06Z so it really is not accurate.

[KWT]

ECM only really has shown a recurve this run, all the other runs its too early to tell on though I agree this probably will be a fish, the upper high looks non-existant past 40-45W...I personally think it may get close to Bermuda though, probably as a hurricane.

If it does develop further south then who knows, but given the 12z and the strength of the upper troughing in the W.atlantic, a recurve, as I've been saying from the start with this one, is by far the strongest option...still will be good to get a hurricane to track, just hope the board doesn't drain away as soon as its clear it fishes like every single fish system in the past...

Cycloneye, nearly all models show track 2, so I'll go with that one...also maybe an idea to open a thread on the wave infront given what the ECM does this run?

ps, given the level of model development, could see an invest nearly as soon as it reaches the water I reckon.

[cycloneye]

ECM only really has shown a recurve this run, all the other runs its too early to tell on though I agree this probably will be a fish, the upper high looks non-existant past 40-45W...I personally think it may get close to Bermuda though, probably as a hurricane.

If it does develop further south then who knows, but given the 12z and the strength of the upper troughing in the W.atlantic, a recurve, as I've been saying from the start with this one, is by far the strongest option...still will be good to get a hurricane to track, just hope the board doesn't drain away as soon as its clear it fishes like every single fish system in the past...

Cycloneye, nearly all models show track 2, so I'll go with that one...also maybe an idea to open a thread on the wave infront given what the ECM does this run?

ps, given the level of model development, could see an invest nearly as soon as it reaches the water I reckon.

And possibly, be mentioned at the TWO by that time, as they did with the wave that gave birth to Bertha.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Discussion...snip...

WELL EASTWARD A INCREASING FAVORABLE MJO/VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES AND ACTUAL MODEL RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE VERDE/EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MID TO
LATE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. GOOD GFS ENS AGREEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT ON TIME.

[gatorcane]

ECM only really has shown a recurve this run, all the other runs its too early to tell on though I agree this probably will be a fish, the upper high looks non-existant past 40-45W...I personally think it may get close to Bermuda though, probably as a hurricane.

If it does develop further south then who knows, but given the 12z and the strength of the upper troughing in the W.atlantic, a recurve, as I've been saying from the start with this one, is by far the strongest option...still will be good to get a hurricane to track, just hope the board doesn't drain away as soon as its clear it fishes like every single fish system in the past...

Cycloneye, nearly all models show track 2, so I'll go with that one...also maybe an idea to open a thread on the wave infront given what the ECM does this run?

ps, given the level of model development, could see an invest nearly as soon as it reaches the water I reckon.

WEll I predict this one will develop and model runs will show a curve away from the islands and US --- so because of that then I expect the board to drain out quite a bit and not show too much interest.

By the way if you look at the ECMWF, if it were to go out another few frames should show a recurve, as a big upper-low is digging to the NW of it.

Bermuda High looks rather weak. Here in S. FL will watch the Caribbean or SE Bahamas for any threats, but as far as I am concerned the CV systems just can't make it across with the pattern we are in, may take a couple of weeks to break it.

[cycloneye]

The latest from NRL on Test Invest PGI-30L.