Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Wx_Warrior]

storm by friday?

[Vortex]

H-78 Large and strenthening!




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Tad further south and a smidgen weaker than NAM 18z, but that's splitting hairs.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect late Thursday/early Friday we will have an Invest. This will take a little time to fully separate from the ITCZ IMO. Poor wxman57 will have to work this weekend...

[Ivanhater]

Now I think it may be decent chance of saying we are looking at the J storm before the 10th. Unbelievable.

At this rate, I can truly believe we can make it to hyperactivity this season.

It's going to have to beat the system behind Igor to become Julia. Most likely this one would be called Karl.

Pretty insane we are even having this conversation about what system will beat out the other to become the J or K storm. Season bust what?

[Ivanhater]

Now that's one large system

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

That is some storm starting to crank at the end of the run...



loop:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Big O]

The location and timing of this system reminds me of another system, which happened to develop on this day 22 years ago.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Forgot about that one!

[South Texas Storms]

The location and timing of this system reminds me of another system, which happened to develop on this day 22 years ago.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

oh yeah gilbert was a bad one. even though it made landfall in mexico, it spawned tornadoes all the way up in san antonio.

[Bailey1777]

so what general area should we be watching right now and do we see any signs of anything going on right now?

[Vortex]

latest IR2/radar strongly suggest the LLC may be forming about 60-70 miles E/ESE of barbados...

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Agreed....the area to watch is just east-southeast of Barbados. Thunderstorms are increasing and becoming more concentrated. It looks likely to me that we will see at least a depression forming in the next 36 hours.

[FireBird]

I know we're all trying to pull together data, and with slow movement, we're kinda eyeballing it. But is there any way of getting a better fix on co-ordinates? Any ship data?

[cycloneye]

Agreed....the area to watch is just east-southeast of Barbados. Thunderstorms are increasing and becoming more concentrated. It looks likely to me that we will see at least a depression forming in the next 36 hours.

It would take that long to form?

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I wouldn't expect much development for the next 12-18 hours. Notice I said at least a tropical depression in the next 36 hours....I would not at all be surprised to see tropical storm intensity within that time frame.

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

The area just ese of barbados is becoming more concentrated by the hour...

[Wx_Warrior]

0z 18hrs - gfs