2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[blp]

Good observations everyone. Looking at the May and half of June Anomolies This year has a different pattern for sure than the last 4 years. I tried to find the closest match and could not find one but some similarities to 2004 indeed.

2015


2004

[MiamiensisWx]

Here are some interesting statistics for South Florida, which encompasses the NWS Miami/Key West jurisdictions of Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Collier, Glades, and Hendry counties. These statistics pertain to the period from 1900 to the present, for observation networks prior to 1900 were scarce, lacking the development of modern transportation networks.

1. From 1926 to 1969 (the last +AMO/active cycle), the longest gap between major hurricane landfalls in South Florida was 10 years. The current +AMO since 1995 has produced one major landfall in South FL (Wilma 2005).
2. During the last -AMO/inactive cycle (1970-1994), the longest gap between major hurricane landfalls in South Florida was 22 years. Note that, while the last major before 1992 occurred in 1965, I do not count 1965-1969 because those years were witin the last +AMO.
3. Since 1900, the longest gap between major hurricane landfalls in South Florida has been 27 years (1965-1992). The next longest gap was 13 years (1992-2005) and the next longest 10 years (1909-1919, 1935-1945, 1950-1960, and possibly 2005-2015).
4. There were five major hurricanes in less than 10 years on two occasions: 1926−1935 and 1945−1950.
5. Since the latest +AMO began in 1995, only one major hurricane has hit South Florida.
6. Long-term records (prior to 1900) only show one major hurricane landfall, in 1888, but data are scarce.
7. Some possible major hurricanes occurred in the 1820s, 1835, 1837, 1846, 1865, and 1876. Note that the period 1880-1899 was part of an +AMO/active cycle, the period 1900-1925 part of an -AMO/inactive cycle.
8. If the above data are accepted, then the longest gap between major hurricane landfalls in South Florida (pre-1900) was 11 years in the +AMO/active cycle between 1880-1899.
9. Major landfalls in South FL, 1851-present (orange = LF in SE FL, underline = Cat. 4/5)
   
   1870–1899: 1 (1888)
   1900–1919: 3 (1906, 1909, 1919)
   1920–1939: 5 (1926, 1928, 1929, 1933, 1935)
   1940–1959: 5 (1945, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950)
   1960–1979: 2 (1960, 1965)
   1980–1999: 1 (1992)
   2000–2015: 1 (2005)
10. Major hurricane hits occurred in clusters, defined here as hits within less than five years: 1906-1909, 1926-1935, 1945-1950, 1960-1965.
11. The eyes of major hurricanes passed over Greater Miami five times between 1926-1969: in 1926, 1929, 1945, 1950, and 1965 (underline = Cat. 4/5)

[Ntxw]

Per Klotzbach shear across the Caribbean the past month is the strongest on record since 1979. I was looking at some guidance and it continues to rage at times 60-80knots. This is too much, I wouldn't expect anything to have good conditions in this region, they haven't been for some years. Waves need to survive and head north.

[WPBWeather]

Per Klotzbach shear across the Caribbean the past month is the strongest on record since 1979. I was looking at some guidance and it continues to rage at times 60-80knots. This is too much, I wouldn't expect anything to have good conditions in this region, they haven't been for some years. Waves need to survive and head north.

Shear can disappear in hours. Can anyone expect the Atlantic to never return? That theme that some sound in here seems absurd really.

[NDG]

Is no surprise that shear across most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic was going to be insane this year.
Most likely next year the shear across that area is going to be a far memory lol.

[Yellow Evan]

Per Klotzbach shear across the Caribbean the past month is the strongest on record since 1979. I was looking at some guidance and it continues to rage at times 60-80knots. This is too much, I wouldn't expect anything to have good conditions in this region, they haven't been for some years. Waves need to survive and head north.

Shear can disappear in hours. Can anyone expect the Atlantic to never return? That theme that some sound in here seems absurd really.

Not that kind of shear.

Why will something form down there?

[Hurricaneman]

Per Klotzbach shear across the Caribbean the past month is the strongest on record since 1979. I was looking at some guidance and it continues to rage at times 60-80knots. This is too much, I wouldn't expect anything to have good conditions in this region, they haven't been for some years. Waves need to survive and head north.

Shear can disappear in hours. Can anyone expect the Atlantic to never return? That theme that some sound in here seems absurd really.

Not that kind of shear.

Why will something form down there?

actually this kind of shear is quite common in stronger El Nino events

[MiamiensisWx]

Is no surprise that shear across most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic was going to be insane this year.
Most likely next year the shear across that area is going to be a far memory lol.

Really? Average shear in August-October has been above average in the Caribbean (and most of the Gulf, though this point gets overlooked) since 2012 at least. A broader and more significant point is that if the broader global patterns don't change, we won't see an uptick in homegrown TC activity in 2017. A look at the ESRL charts shows that the pattern over the past three seasons has favored anticyclonic flow north of 25° N with westerly flow to the south. This means enhanced shear over the deep Atlantic tropics. Forget instability for a moment; if you really want to start seeing more activity in the deep tropics, return the pattern to the pre-2012 (especially pre-2011) regime. That means a reversal of the 200-mb vectors, with anticyclonic flow south of 25° N with westerly flow to the north. That means getting rid of the semi-permanent TUTT in the central Atlantic and allowing more development both in the MDR and in the Caribbean.

As an aside, I am currently doing research on past activity in the Atlantic, and the preliminary indications are that the current lack of hurricane and major hurricane activity in the deep tropical Atlantic (since 2012) is very unusual, as is the lack of major hurricane hits in the U.S., and that, for all the talk, ENSO--namely, the back-to-back Niñas in 2010-2011--likely had very little, if anything, to do with it, other than in 2014, when we had El Niño. Past experience with back-to-back Niñas (such as 1998-1999) in an +AMO/active cycle shows that the following season(s), like 2000, had little decrease in hurricane activity in the deep tropics.

• 1998 had five hurricanes/three majors (≈71%/100% of the seasonal total) south of 25° N, while 1999 had eight/four (100%/80%).
• 2000 had five/two (≈63%/100%), while 2001 had three/two (≈38%/50%).
• So, at least before 2001, instability was not much of a factor, and in fact, as far as I can recall, shear was more significant than insufficient instability in 2001.
• Keep in mind that the 1998-1999 Niña also extended through early 2001, yet the 2000 season didn't show any obvious decrease in activity.

Regarding the other back-to-back Niña since 1950 (1954-1955):

• 1954 (not counting Alice #2, which reached hurricane status in 1955) had three hurricanes/one major (50%/≈33% of the seasonal total) south of 25° N, while 1955 had eight/three (≈89%/75%).
• 1956 had, according to Sandy Delgado's reanalysis, three/one (75%/100%).

I will be going over the examples from the other +AMO/active cycles (1880-1899 and the pre-1950 cases from 1926-1969) later, but initial explorations show that, although samples are limited (few back-to-back Niñas have occurred), the notion that back-to-back Niñas create lower instability that negatively impacts the following season(s) does not appear to be true. When the +AMO/Atlantic THC is strong, it can easily offset any negative feedback impacting instability following back-to-back Niñas.

[WPBWeather]

MiamiensisWx said:
As an aside, I am currently doing research on past activity in the Atlantic, and the preliminary indications are that the current lack of hurricane and major hurricane activity in the deep tropical Atlantic (since 2012) is very unusual, as is the lack of major hurricane hits in the U.S., and that, for all the talk, ENSO--namely, the back-to-back Niñas in 2010-2011--likely had very little, if anything, to do with it, other than in 2014, when we had El Niño. Past experience with back-to-back Niñas (such as 1998-1999) in an +AMO/active cycle shows that the following season(s), like 2000, had little decrease in hurricane activity in the deep tropics.

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You always have interesting facts to support your positions. What is your take on the "no more Atlantic storms" thinking??

[Andrew92]

Miamiensis actually does make a very good point. Yes, a first instinct might tell most weather watchers that immediately after an El Nino dissipates, that conditions immediately favor big Atlantic hurricanes in the tropical latitudes. However, that isn't always the case. A couple of good examples of this are 1959, 1973, and both 1983 and 1984. I think of 1983 as acting like an El Nino even though it wasn't, which is why I threw both in there just in case, although given some other events in 1959 and 1973, one could make a bit of a case that either of those years "acted" like El Nino, too.

Maybe this is pushing just a little since one of these was a Category 5, but even 2003 in the tropical latitudes could have done a little better, in my opinion, compared to years like 1995 and 2010. For all the activity that year (and it was active, I'm not trying to dispute that), the Caribbean really disappointed in overall activity in 2003. Only Claudette was (briefly) a hurricane in there at all that year. I'm not about to say 2003 acted like an El Nino, that year most definitely did not, but I look at that season now and see lots of quantity but only slightly to moderately above average quality.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if 2016 is another one of those years that either acts somewhat like El Nino or even if it doesn't, disappoints in the Atlantic ever so slightly.

However, if one goes further into the following years - 1960/61, 1974/75, 1985, and 2004/05, then things get significantly more favorable usually after an unfavorable first year after an El Nino season. I'm not really sure why but this would be a great study to uncover these kind of secrets.

For now though, we watch what happens in 2015. This strong shear doesn't surprise me in the tropical latitudes at all, but the Gulf is still a place to watch. I also could see some storms forming in the subtropical Atlantic, though unlikely to be threats to anyone except shipping.

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Per Klotzbach shear across the Caribbean the past month is the strongest on record since 1979. I was looking at some guidance and it continues to rage at times 60-80knots. This is too much, I wouldn't expect anything to have good conditions in this region, they haven't been for some years. Waves need to survive and head north.

Shear can disappear in hours. Can anyone expect the Atlantic to never return? That theme that some sound in here seems absurd really.

I only see one person sounding that theme and I don't think it should be the main driver of the conversation here. People are making valid points about the current conditions in the Atlantic, low instability, record high shear, etc. I think it's fair to say, at this point, we don't really know what is driving these conditions and can't predict when it will reverse.

[blp]

I think if 2016 is still inactive then it will really be a strong case for a long pattern change. One problem is we have a relatively short reliable historical hurricane record going back mid 1800's. Who knows if we are dealing with situation that happens every 300 years. I guess we will never know. 2016 will be the barometer in my opinion.

[Andrew92]

I think if 2016 is still inactive then it will really be a strong case for a long pattern change. One problem is we have a relatively short reliable historical hurricane record going back mid 1800's. Who knows if we are dealing with situation that happens every 300 years. I guess we will never know. 2016 will be the barometer in my opinion.

2017 and 2018 will be much bigger indicators, I think. If the first year after an El Nino isn't too active, the next two years usually are pretty rough, according to historical trends.

Again, the best examples are 1959, 1973, and 1983. Also 1978 can be lumped in there, though Central American nearly got a major with Greta that year, and maybe 2003 with a disappointing Caribbean. But in the years that followed...

1960-61: Donna and Carla - with Esther also as a major East Coast threat, and Hattie pummeling Belize.
1974-75: Carmen and Eloise for the US - with Carmen also hammering the Yucatan, Fifi deluging Honduras, Caroline going just south of the Border, and Gladys a major East Coast threat.
1979-80: David, Frederic, and Allen. I don't think I need to go any further here.
1984-85: Elena in the Gulf and Gloria on the East coast, with Diana grazing as a major before landfalling weaker. Juan caused a major flood event, and Kate was also a major before weakening in the Gulf.
2004-05: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. And then Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Also remember Emily was a major for Mexico, while Stan produced devastating floods in Mexico and Guatemala. Many of these storms affected more than the US, too, particularly the Caribbean and Bahamas.

I firmly believe there is significant activity to come in the future. It's just not likely to be this year, and don't be entirely surprised if it's not 2016 either. But remember, it only takes one to make a season!

-Andrew92

[Alyono]

one problem with that analysis, 2004 was an el niño

[Andrew92]

one problem with that analysis, 2004 was an el niño

Yes it was, but it was a Modoki El Nino, or central-Pacific based event. There haven't been that many, but the ones I have found have shown a trend towards the same thing as a second year after a traditional El Nino, with a major hitting the US. In the cases after a Modoki, somewhere along the Gulf was the common place. The Modoki events I could find are 1963, 1969, 1991, and 2004...if I'm right.

In 1964, Hilda hit Louisiana (though Cleo and Dora did also pound the east coast of Florida). In 1970, Celia hit Corpus Christi. In 1992, Andrew hit Louisiana (though is much more well known for South Florida of course). And in 2005 came Dennis (Panhandle), Emily (Mexico), Katrina (New Orleans and Mississippi). Rita (Texas/Louisiana, though brushed the Keys as well), and Wilma (Southwest Florida).

1979 has also recently been brought up in the ENSO updates thread as perhaps being an El Nino, and I think I remember looking at that year and noticing what looking like a slightly warmer than average tongue over the equatorial Pacific, but in the Central part, not the eastern part. Put these together, and there is also a case for that year being a weak Modoki-type event of some sort. I'm unsure about the other years I mentioned, though. The Gulf of Mexico big hit theory does hold for 1980, as Allen smacked into lower Texas that year, though is perhaps better-known for what it did in the Caribbean.

That could easily happen in the coming years too, but I'm really hoping not.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

Many Atlantic hurricane seasons don't crank up until middle of August which is just under 2 months away. A lot can change between now and then when looking at the conditions across the Atlantic. The long-wave pattern looks a lot like 2004 so far across North America and the Western Atlantic that is the one thing that has my attention, not to mention 2004 didn't really get going until August. As Alyono pointed out 2004 was an El Nino year also.

[TheStormExpert]

Many Atlantic hurricane seasons don't crank up until middle of August which is just under 2 months away. A lot can change between now and then when looking at the conditions across the Atlantic. The long-wave pattern looks a lot like 2004 so far across North America and the Western Atlantic that is the one thing that has my attention, not to mention 2004 didn't really get going until August. As Alyono pointed out 2004 was an El Nino year also.

2004 was a Modoki El Niño, this year is a full blown Traditional El Niño likely the strongest in nearly two decades! So unless some sort of miracle occurs throughout the Tropical Atlantic(MDR), and Caribbean that quickly allows these sub-basins to become quite favorable 2004 is pretty much anything but a good analog year for this season. Also I highly doubt the long-wave pattern is too much of a resemblance this season so far when compared to 2004 up to this date, each and every year has it's own unique pattern it seems.

Also when you have SAL outbreak after SAL outbreak like this below in any given season(even only in late June), odds are the MDR will be at least somewhat unfavorable.

[gatorcane]

Many Atlantic hurricane seasons don't crank up until middle of August which is just under 2 months away. A lot can change between now and then when looking at the conditions across the Atlantic. The long-wave pattern looks a lot like 2004 so far across North America and the Western Atlantic that is the one thing that has my attention, not to mention 2004 didn't really get going until August. As Alyono pointed out 2004 was an El Nino year also.

2004 was a Modoki El Niño, this year is a full blown Traditional El Niño likely the strongest in nearly two decades! So unless some sort of miracle occurs throughout the Tropical Atlantic(MDR), and Caribbean that quickly allows these sub-basins to become quite favorable 2004 is pretty much anything but a good analog year for this season. Also I highly doubt the long-wave pattern is too much of a resemblance this season so far when compared to 2004 up to this date, each and every year has it's own unique pattern it seems.

Also when you have SAL outbreak after SAL outbreak like this below in any given season(even only in late June), odds are the MDR will be at least somewhat unfavorable.

Member blp made this post a few pages ago which shows the similarities to 2004. Actually the East Coast ridge is stronger in 2015 so far which in interesting. I am not saying we are going to see a 2004 repeat but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a cape verde long tracker this year that makes it quite far west. I think something that tracks into the area just north of the Caribbean islands is where to watch. Even in El Nino years you can get Cape Verde systems that develop. All it takes is one.

Good observations everyone. Looking at the May and half of June Anomolies This year has a different pattern for sure than the last 4 years. I tried to find the closest match and could not find one but some similarities to 2004 indeed.

2015


2004

[gatorcane]

Major landfalls in South FL, 1851-present (orange = LF in SE FL, underline = Cat. 4/5)
1870–1899: 1 (1888)
1900–1919: 3 (1906, 1909, 1919)
1920–1939: 5 (1926, 1928, 1929, 1933, 1935)
1940–1959: 5 (1945, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950)
1960–1979: 2 (1960, 1965)
1980–1999: 1 (1992)
2000–2015: 1 (2005)
[*]Major hurricane hits occurred in clusters, defined here as hits within less than five years: 1906-1909, 1926-1935, 1945-1950, 1960-1965.
[*]The eyes of major hurricanes passed over Greater Miami five times between 1926-1969: in 1926, 1929, 1945, 1950, and 1965 (underline = Cat. 4/5)[/list]

One thing I noticed looking at these years where a major hurricane has struck South Florida is that usually things are very quiet until late July or August (sometimes nothing until late August or September) and then a "switch" seems to turn on. It is very difficult to know this early what conditions are going to be like in the MDR when we are trying to look out nearly 2-3 months from now.

2004 should not be on your list but northern areas of South Florida no doubt felt the impacts of Frances and Jeanne that year.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I will agree there is no way to tell what the conditions will be like in 2-3 months in the tropics but taking into account this year's powerful el nino that will be going full force by Aug/Sept and add the past several years horrid conditions that are carrying over again as well and I'd be willing to bet my house and money on things staying very quiet versus anything close to a 2004 type season.