2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Well the GFS is showing that seperate system now. But keeps it weaker than the Euro.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS through 204 hours

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some gradual development of the disturbance through
this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

So this Tropical Wave is supposed to induce the two initial areas of low pressure that the Euro and GFS are showing?

[Yellow Evan]

So this Tropical Wave is supposed to induce the two initial areas of low pressure that the Euro and GFS are showing?

Pretty sure it's the second as judging by the initialization of the GFS the first is in the EPAC already. This is the one the GFS/ECMWF are bullish with.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS fully out

[cycloneye]

GEFS ensembles are as strong as the operational.

http://i.imgur.com/tA92dRS.jpg

Conversation at Twitter between Eric Blake and Levi about the GEFS ensembles.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2m2 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits it also does better with larger systems so maybe this one will be bigger than most


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 20m20 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 The strong Kelvin waves really seem to cause model lock-ons to TCs in that region as well.



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 12m12 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits they absolutely help. Altho figuring out exactly which wave will form isn't always simple

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS ensembles

[gatorcane]

Wow 945mb?!? Good possibility we see our first named system for the EPAC and it could end up a hurricane.

[WeatherGuesser]

Does anyone knows which is the date of latest first named storm forming? I think is getting close.

June 21 2009 not counting prior to 1971. But if you wanna be technical, Pali arguably counts since it goes into HURDAT.

Did this get settled? 6/21 which we're now well past?

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone knows which is the date of latest first named storm forming? I think is getting close.

June 21 2009 not counting prior to 1971. But if you wanna be technical, Pali arguably counts since it goes into HURDAT.

Did this get settled? 6/21 which we're now well past?

Yes but if you count 1966-1970 (1966 was routine satellite era, 1971 was Dvorak era), the record is 7/3/1969.

Regardless, we should break both records.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFs so far. Three lows- 2 TC's. Seems to be caving towards the UKMET which has shown 3 lows forming into TC's for days. Of course, the low on the left in the GFS is not a storm, but that left low has been shown by the ECMWF in the past.

[Yellow Evan]

By comparison, the 12z UKMET shows the same 3 lows as it has for days but less interaction than the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS back to a cat. 5.

[Yellow Evan]

Ulika







And 3 more EPAC storms post-day 10

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some gradual development of the disturbance through
this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[stormwise]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/summary120epac.php

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWf looks to be initialized strangely. Gonna be another wild run.

[Kingarabian]

Euro liking that first system more now.

[Yellow Evan]

And the madness continues. ECMWf showing the left of the 3 lows developing through day 6