Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[blp]

Euro not the only model. 12z Navgem has it.

[NDG]

12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more.

You are correct, a lot more members jumping on board compared to previous runs.

[ronjon]

A ridge runner according to 12z Euro. Nearly a straight path W-NW from the Bahamas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018082812&fh=240

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1034532211607969793

[SoupBone]

Judging by the latest 6-10 day precipitation forecast from the CPC, they seem to think this wave will move towards the central or south Texas coast vs Louisiana.

Between 33-40% for Texas, Louisiana, and Florida.

[Blown Away]

ECMWF has TD into SFL at 120 hours and then TS/Cat 1 into NGOM @240 hours.

[Javlin]

It's got my attention like the hound dog with one eye open.
the coastal area's in the MS sound are in the higher % of pops ridgerunner.

[cycloneye]

The CPC Global Tropics Hazards site has a moderate chance for development.

A tropical disturbance is forecast to move from the Bahamas across Florida and over the Gulf of Mexico during the next week and there is a moderate potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone. A moderate confidence shape was included in this outlook for both Week-1 and Week-2, reflecting the potential for development either towards the end of Week-1 or early in Week-2.

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis has wave axis around 54W-55W and somewhat tilted from NE to SW.

[GoDawgs]

It's got my attention like the hound dog with one eye open.
the coastal area's in the MS sound are in the higher % of pops ridgerunner.

Lurking and watching Storm2k (like always this time of year) from Ocean Springs, MS.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like we legitimately may have something. finally to really monitor by this weekend into early next week. Models really jumping onboard now with potential development.

[Cpv17]

I would say as of right now this is a Texas or Louisiana storm, but even S. Florida could see a weak tropical storm.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has a hostile environment over South Florida and Bahamas when the wave will be in the vicinity:

[tarheelprogrammer]

The GFS has a hostile environment over South Florida and Bahamas when the wave will be in the vicinity:

https://s8.postimg.cc/szanchq8l/gfs_shear_watl_25.png]

How accurate has the GFS been about conditions at that time frame this season? Anyone know?

[cycloneye]

Vorticity has been slowly increasing in the wave axis.

[Hurricaneman]

Surprisingly to me, the Euro has this TC genesis near FL for the 2nd run in a row. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms as @AJC3 can attest to. So, despite two model runs in a row having it and though interesting for sure, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now.

Hard to believe the Euro forecast when the incipient wave doesn’t look like much as seen in this loop approaching northern Lesser Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Remember some notable storms looked like this. Between 55 and 65w like

Katrina 2005
Erin 1995
Rita 2005

So while it may look like nothing now it could look completely different on the other side of the tutt as convection tends to fire as these waves transverse the tutt

[Javlin]

The GFS has a hostile environment over South Florida and Bahamas when the wave will be in the vicinity:


How accurate has the GFS been about conditions at that time frame this season? Anyone know?

I still feel wind shear is about the hardest part of a prediction outside of 48-72 hours.

[Javlin]

Surprisingly to me, the Euro has this TC genesis near FL for the 2nd run in a row. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms as @AJC3 can attest to. So, despite two model runs in a row having it and though interesting for sure, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now.

Hard to believe the Euro forecast when the incipient wave doesn’t look like much as seen in this loop approaching northern Lesser Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Remember some notable storms looked like this. Between 55 and 65w like

Katrina 2005
Erin 1995
Rita 2005

So while it may look like nothing now it could look completely different on the other side of the tutt as convection tends to fire as these waves transverse the tutt

I watched K all the way across the Atlantic while other things were happening and the Everglades boosted her by 5mph,Rita was an afterthought for me done been taken care of by K.Erin was another ridgerunner that made a serious right hand turn into Pensacola.We have plenty of time to watch this one but if S.FL has a storm on her doorstep in 5-6days the GOM is open for business and it's not going to be pretty.

[eastcoastFL]

Take a look at the TPW loop (below). There is little or no rotation associated with the wave, and TPW isn't extremely high - two strikes against development. In contrast, look a that the wave now emerging off the west coast of Africa. Significant rotation and higher TPW values.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

I do not want my Labor Day weekend ruined so hopefully the Euro is full of it.

This would MAKE my Labor Day weekend Bring It

As a fellow PSL resident I have to agree I wouldn't mind getting a storm this weekend. My daughter has been tracking this wave super closely and she would be really excited if we got something out of it.

[Hurricaneman]

So far at 54 hrs on the 18zGFS the crest of this wave is north of Puerto Rico near a wall of shear in a pocket of low shear, Does have some vorticity definitely slower than the Euro