2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[crownweather]

00z UKMET has the same system developing from the wave currently just east of the Leeward Islands:

https://i.imgur.com/Kdv7uec.png

That's interesting. I'm really starting to wonder if the FV3-GFS and Euro models may have been tweaked a little too much towards not showing anything until "game time".

While the operational runs don't show development, there is support from some of the ensemble guidance from the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/Ah2JigQ.png

The same is true for the ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/XIKWecT.png

Ok, where is that GFS ensemble plot found?? Would love to add it to my toolbox of stuff I look at because that's a really nice plot.

[storm4u]

Invest soon?

[USTropics]

Current satellite loop of wave east of Caribbean with some model support for development:


Currently it's under about 25kts of shear with dry subsidence in the vicinity. Low-level clouds are moving from NE to NW in loop above, so not much going on at the surface currently. It should track NW towards the Bahamas, where better conditions are modeled.

06z GFS shows an increase in vorticity in 96 hours, but a forecast of ~30-40 knots of shear keeps it in check. Shear forecasts past 72 hours aren't the best at verifying, so definitely something to keep an eye on:

[tolakram]

Ok, where is that GFS ensemble plot found?? Would love to add it to my toolbox of stuff I look at because that's a really nice plot.

University of Albany
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/

[USTropics]

That's interesting. I'm really starting to wonder if the FV3-GFS and Euro models may have been tweaked a little too much towards not showing anything until "game time".

While the operational runs don't show development, there is support from some of the ensemble guidance from the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/Ah2JigQ.png

The same is true for the ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/XIKWecT.png

Ok, where is that GFS ensemble plot found?? Would love to add it to my toolbox of stuff I look at because that's a really nice plot.

Alan Brammer's website has both images - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/. Just click on the suspect area to get the GFS ensemble image.

[crownweather]

While the operational runs don't show development, there is support from some of the ensemble guidance from the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/Ah2JigQ.png

The same is true for the ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/XIKWecT.png

Ok, where is that GFS ensemble plot found?? Would love to add it to my toolbox of stuff I look at because that's a really nice plot.

Alan Brammer's website has both images - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/. Just click on the suspect area to get the GFS ensemble image.

Thanks!!!!

Did you notice the area of lower shear from N of Puerto Rico through the Bahamas.

[USTropics]

Ok, where is that GFS ensemble plot found?? Would love to add it to my toolbox of stuff I look at because that's a really nice plot.

Alan Brammer's website has both images - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/. Just click on the suspect area to get the GFS ensemble image.

Thanks!!!!

Did you notice the area of lower shear from N of Puerto Rico through the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/DzEyESm.gif

The GFS lifts the zonal shear flow north into the Bahamas:


It also keeps the main vorticity on the SW axis of the wave:


I do think it will have to get NW of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas before it finds better UL conditions.

[USTropics]

UKMET/ICON has about 40% support from NCEP ensembles on a possible system off the EC:


src: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

[SFLcane]

Pattern looks to support recurve between Bermuda and CONUS. Eastcoast trof in place

[cycloneye]

New thread is up for Tropical Wave in West Africa

[Aric Dunn]

Current satellite loop of wave east of Caribbean with some model support for development:
https://i.ibb.co/s5F0JFL/60179453-1.gif

Currently it's under about 25kts of shear with dry subsidence in the vicinity. Low-level clouds are moving from NE to NW in loop above, so not much going on at the surface currently. It should track NW towards the Bahamas, where better conditions are modeled.

06z GFS shows an increase in vorticity in 96 hours, but a forecast of ~30-40 knots of shear keeps it in check. Shear forecasts past 72 hours aren't the best at verifying, so definitely something to keep an eye on:
https://i.imgur.com/W3PkJap.png

The NE part of the wave might be developing a circ. some strong inflow from the S into that cluster with some inflow from the north and NE as well. definitely needs to be watched. especially with the shear axis forecast to shift west with it.

Maybe a thread for this wave should be made now that there is some model support for it,

FYI the 12z GFS brings this wave into the eastern gulf and tries to start to develop it.

[cycloneye]

New thread is up for Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Between 50W and 60W)

[OuterBanker]

00z UKMET has the same system developing from the wave currently just east of the Leeward Islands:

https://i.imgur.com/Kdv7uec.png

Not gonna happen!

Reason: I (and 24 others from our house) have been going to Williamsburg for the past 30 odd years for a bowling tournament the first weekend in August and have never had to cancel due to a hurricane.

Not gonna happen!

[Hammy]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

[tolakram]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

You left out the fact that reliable models aren't very reliable past 5 days. The Euro continues to show development, now at 144 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

The ECMWF is developing the tropical wave that just exited Africa.

[cycloneye]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

See the Tropical Wave off African Coast Thread

[stormlover2013]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

Lol Euro is showing something now lol

[LarryWx]

UKMET/ICON has about 40% support from NCEP ensembles on a possible system off the EC:
https://i.imgur.com/iyOnB6E.png

src: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

I thought this was 95L. It sure looks like it to me by following the ensemble mean's progression. If so, this should be in the 95L models thread. But I guess I could be mistaken.

[SoupBone]

Reliable models continue showing nothing through mid-August. We're either headed for a late-90s type season where the switch suddenly flips at the end of the month, or a lot of people are in for a surprisingly quiet season.

A short lived, but crazy train recurve season wouldn't be the worst thing.